Sudhanshu
830 posts




JUST IN: Hours ago I wrote that Kharg Island was the red line the coalition drew for itself. The one target whose destruction would do more to end this war than every other strike combined, left untouched because reaching it would create consequences the coalition cannot manage. Axios just reported that US officials are actively discussing seizing it. The report, citing administration officials directly, says discussion is underway to capture Kharg Island alongside special forces raids to secure Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpiles. No order has been given. No deployment has been authorized. It remains in the discussion phase. But the fact that the option is being reported through Axios sourcing from inside the administration means the policy debate has moved from contingency planning to active consideration. Kharg Island handles roughly 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports. Approximately two million barrels per day at pre-war capacity. The revenue funds roughly 40 percent of the Iranian government’s budget including the IRGC payroll that sustains thirty one provincial commands. Seizing it would collapse the regime’s revenue overnight. That is why the option is being discussed. It is also why it has not been executed. In 1979 the Carter administration developed contingency plans for seizing Kharg. The plans were rejected as too difficult and too risky. In 2026 the military calculus has shifted: 80 percent of Iranian air defenses are destroyed according to the IDF, the Iranian navy has been severely degraded, and the US has near total air superiority. The operational feasibility has improved dramatically since 1979. The economic calculus has not. Seizing Kharg removes Iranian crude from global markets for years, not weeks, because rebuilding offshore loading infrastructure under wartime conditions requires complete reconstruction. It spikes Brent toward $150 or beyond. It triggers the recession America is trying to avoid. It gives China an escalation rationale Beijing currently lacks. And it requires holding a small island under continuous drone and missile attack with supply lines across a strait Iran has demonstrated it can threaten. The Axios report also references special forces operations to seize Iran’s highly enriched uranium. That pairing tells you what the administration is actually debating: whether the endgame of this war is limited degradation, the current trajectory, or complete strategic decapitation, meaning the simultaneous elimination of Iran’s revenue base and nuclear capability. Trump has demanded unconditional surrender. Iran refuses to negotiate. The air campaign, however brilliant, has not produced capitulation. Every day without political resolution increases pressure to escalate toward options previously rejected as too costly. Kharg Island is the measure of how far the United States is willing to go. The discussion is the signal. The seizure, if it comes, is the moment this war transforms from a regional conflict into a global economic crisis that touches every economy on earth. The red line I identified is no longer theoretical. Washington is discussing whether to cross it. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…


we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack





















