Ollie Ring

Please drop us a free sub over at my @substack, would be greatly appreciated.

Ink in the old quill yet, it seems.

@WALLACHLEGAL @threadreaderapp unroll

26) Along the same lines, if the event participant is the one most impacted economically by the outcome of an event and we can agree that they shouldn’t be allowed to hedge their economic risk by placing a bet on Kalshi’s exchange, then how they’re impacted economically should be of no moment in the analysis of whether it meets the CEA criteria for an “excluded commodity.”

There is another fundamental flaw in Kalshi's legal argument. Kalshi's 'sports-outcome' event contracts may not qualify as an "excluded commodity" for purposes of triggering the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction. Here's why: 1) Under the Commodity Exchange Act (the CEA), "event contracts" are defined as "agreements contracts, transactions, or swaps in excluded commodities." 2) In other words, "event contracts" are subject to regulation under the CEA as an "excluded commodity." 3) What is an "excluded commodity"? 4) The CEA defines "excluded commodity" as an "occurrence, extent of an occurrence, or contingency" that is “beyond the control of the parties to the relevant contract" and "associated with a financial, economic, or commercial consequence." 5) The key words are "associated with a financial, economic, or commercial consequence." 6) So, are the outcomes of sporting events "associated with a financial, economic, or commercial consequence"? 7) Kalshi previously took the position that they are not. 8) In a brief filed on November 15, 2024 with the D.C. Circuit, Kalshi explained that "contracts relating to games—again, activities conducted for diversion or amusement—are unlikely to serve any ‘commercial or hedging interest.’” (📸) 9) During the May 30, 2024 oral argument in its lawsuit with the CFTC, Kalshi asserted that contracts relating to "games" such as "football, horseracing and golf" have "no economic significance," adding that "it's probably not the type of contracts that we want to be listed on an exchange, because they don't have any real economic value." 10) Kalshi has since reversed field. 11) In a Reply Brief filed earlier this week, Kalshi argued that the "sporting events" for which if offers event contracts "have obvious financial implications," pointing to Rory Mcllroy's sudden-death playoff win in the 2025 Masters which resulted in increased television viewership—reportedly a 33% increase over the prior year—"with enormous financial consequence for CBS and its advertisers." 12) But it's not the sporting event itself which is the measuring stick. The fact that broadcast rights associated with major sporting events are financially consequential does not, a fortiori, mean that the “outcome” of the sporting event is “associated with” a financial, economic, or commercial consequence. 13) Otherwise, as incoming CFTC Chairman Brian Quintenz has opined, “since practically any event has at least a minimal financial, commercial, or economic consequence, ALL events are commodities." 14) The more salient question —and the one actually raised by the definition of "excluded commodity"— is whether the "OUTCOME" of the event is "ASSOCIATED WITH" a "financial, economic, or commercial consequence"? 15) In other words, the relevant inquiry is whether Rory Mcllroy winning the Masters is "associated with" (i.e., connected to) financial consequences, not whether CBS makes money from streaming the event, as the Casino Association of New Jersey explained in an amicus brief filed last week. 16) The answer to that question would appear to be "no" — that is, other than to the competitors themselves (such as Mr. Mcllroy, who earned $4.2 million for winning the Masters). 17) So an “excluded commodity” could be yes/no for Las Vegas to host the 2029 Super Bowl, but not the outcome of the game. 18) It is ironic that Kalshi urged a narrow definition of “gaming” in its lawsuit against the CFTC, but is now urging a broad definition of “economic consequence.”

Paqueta's uncle transferred Luis Henrique (Betis vs Villareal) R$30,000 in an alleged fixing payment for receiving a booking. Several financial transactions have been tracked to "Paqueta Island" where the family are based.

Transactional records and other testimonies have also reportedly corroborated the message. Can't see him playing for much longer given the heap of evidence. #WestHam #WHU #WHUFC

A report by the CPI on Match Fixing and Sports Betting in Brazil has confirmed the authorities have leaked messages from Lucas Paqueta to his brother promising him a "birthday gift" of a yellow card which he subsequently delivered. Paquetas Uncle also implicated for fixing.

Pricey

Quite chuffed with my 'Tasting Menu from Regulatory Hell'. Buzz-buzz-buzz word open.substack.com/pub/esprouts/p…

Meme Responsibly, or Risk Becoming One, by @olliering open.substack.com/pub/esprouts/p…

@BenKentish Ol

Feel quite strongly that the job of an MP is to do what they think is best for their constituents and the country, not just what their religion says they should do. There are very valid arguments on both sides of the assisted dying debate but decisions should be made based on the facts of the matter, not religious doctrine.

@gamray Literally happened in Jan as well petition.parliament.uk/archived/petit…

If you’re excitedly tweeting about this dopey little petition you have lost all grasp of reality and need to get offline before you completely lose the plot. I mean jesus christ

@Miss_Snuffy It already happened this year petition.parliament.uk/archived/petit…

Call a General Election - Wouldn’t it be extraordinary if Parliament had to debate this? Even if you are happy with the Labour government, it is worth signing it just to see whether this gets debated! How bizarre would that be! petition.parliament.uk/petitions/7001…

@TipsterExposer Tipper standings

@olliering For?

Industry Insider Results 12/11 Camino Rocio 11/8 2 Points ✅ Moodofthemoment 7/2 2 Points ✅ Star Legend 10/3 2 Points ❌ Mullaghmore Wave 15/8 2 Points ❌ Chloe’s Court 10/3 2 Points ❌ Stellar Symphony 10/1 1 Point E/W ❌

@androofrench Listen to the whole pod, enlightening to how everything's run - fans mouthing off are 🤣

Deeney tells podcast he grabbed ex-#watfordfc sporting director round the neck, lifted him off the floor and told him "you’re gonna be hanging out of that office by your f*****g tie" watfordobserver.co.uk/sport/24718284…

@OffMenuOfficial Finally front page lads

🍝 Little pockets of love 🍝

New episode tomorrow. This guest is never gonna run around and Dessert you.

@UncleRonSr So he had one permitted sub use left, fairly precarious

@UncleRonSr He made 2 subs in the first 13 mins 😂

@Official_STFC Unreal from your lot, long live the intl break

90+8: His first goal for the club! The midfielder drives an effort from distance which creeps under Sam Foley and into the back of the net! [1-1] #STFC

@Official_STFC In net since 38th min, unreal game

A LATE EQUALISER!