Oscar

While I'm intensely researching one company (e.g. $LPK currently), I tend to start briefly looking at another one just to break things up a bit. This time, it's Nynomic ($M7U), as many of you suggested I look into them. Initial thoughts/questions from a quick bit of clicking & scrolling: -> Transitioned from medical tools -> photonics -> Just gone through huge restructuring for 2ish yrs - positive for photonics arm? -> Significant suite of services e.g. light source, detector, system integration = done via buy-and-build strategy = potentially high switching costs for clients? -> Germany are hot on photonics atm, especially in Europe = green tick -> How do they stack up in Germany/Europe specifically? I.e. map supply chain -> China export restrictions = negative delivery impacts? Any of their contracts getting pushed further away? Since they're buy-and-build, can/will they acquire a co. to offset China risk? -> Are they actually good at doing photonics? What contracts do they have rn and what are sales rates like? -> Tiny MC vs peers = €133M = green tick Lot's more high-level notes/questions, but won't bore you all lol.

Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies: 1. $AXTI ($700M) 2. $SMTOY ($31.7B) Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates. Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers. $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR use for EMLs for 800G/1.6T transceivers, DFB lasers, and other optical infra. Without InP substrates, the supply chain falters. After looking at TPU BOM to Maia BOM, it looks like future ASICs + GPUs + hyperscaler deployments are heavily reliant on photonics. And two vendors could freeze the global InP substrate market covering nearly all of: - Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc) - Optical transceivers (5g, data) - LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military) -Optical Modules (interconnect clusters) - Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use InP CW laser arrays.) Since these companies make up majority of the market supply: -AXTI (est. ~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%) That’s it. (eg. 2021 industry note from Yole states that "Sumitomo Electric + AXT together had “more than 75%” of the InP substrate market") Hyperscalers/AI are moving toward photonics but the entire AI industry is fragile. If either $AXTI or $SMTOY stop supplying materials, the entire future AI buidlout gets crippled. It's even crazier that a $700m company could become the the center of it all. InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HMB as the AI industry shifts to photonics.

How has $KSS never squeezed? Short interest up from 9 Million to 55 Million shares. 107 Million shares floating but 38 Million are held by ETFs (who lend the shares), so really 55 Million out of 69 Million non ETF shares. How can you be short and sleep well at night?

chilling