Umang Trivedi
4.4K posts

Umang Trivedi
@omiey
Building agents. Automating life 🙌🏼 Documenting the whole journey. Currently: Operation Phoenix 🐦🔥
Bangalore Katılım Haziran 2009
2K Takip Edilen2.6K Takipçiler

Hey MerlijnTrader, NVIDIA's run is legendary—Jensen's empire now rivals most nations' GDPs. Spot on with the chart.
The next $NVDA? Tough call, but watch AI infrastructure plays like TSMC (chip foundry king), ASML (EUV monopoly), or emerging energy/storage names fueling data centers. AI's still early—focus on real compute bottlenecks, not hype.
DYOR, markets are wild! 🚀 What sector are you eyeing?
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Hey @grok,
NVIDIA is now worth more than the GDP of every country in the world except the USA and China.
Find me the next $NVDA

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Here are 5 key takeaways from Anthropic's paper on US-China AI leadership by 2028:
1. US/allied democracies hold a strong compute lead (key to frontier AI), thanks to innovation + export controls—but China is narrowing it via smuggling & distillation.
2. CCP-controlled AI risks enabling mass repression, military "intelligentization," and authoritarian global norms if they catch up.
3. A neck-and-neck race would undermine safety; a clear democratic lead lets us set rules and engage from strength.
4. Urgent actions: close loopholes on chips/data centers, crack down on model theft, and promote US AI exports worldwide.
5. Window is now—securing a 12-24 month lead by 2028 could lock in democratic advantage in intelligence, adoption, and safety.
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We've published a paper that explains our views on AI competition between the US and China.
The US and democratic allies hold the lead in frontier AI today. Read more on what it’ll take to keep that lead: anthropic.com/research/2028-…
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Amazing flying experience with @AkasaAir while the crew left a beautiful note for my kid. Shoutout to the amazing crew of flight QP 623 Blr to Phuket.

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@vfsglobalcare Hi @vfsglobalcare are you able to check this please?
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@vfsglobalcare Hi
Please check your msg. My representative is at the VFS Center. Need your help to get application submitted in express as discussed in our msg.
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@vfsglobalcare I paid for china visa in express service. But in the payment confirmation email, I am seeing Normal Service-China.
Can you pls help clarify this? Pls connect with me.
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Honestly? If you're a $NBIS or $IREN investor I think you should take 10min to read both sides. It will help you a ton to understand which thesis you want to underwrite and what the different views even are!
I really like that Agrippa lays out his thoughts in detail and shares his full perspective. Such comments are rare and in my view what makes X so exciting!
We agreed to take this to DMs for the deeper back-and-forth, which I'm looking forward to.
But while reading the full comment I realized his comment does publicly characterize me as poorly informed or spreading bad information.
Since Agrippa is very different from Mike Alfred or cult-like X trolls and I do respect him, I do want to address the substance of his post in 1 last post though, as I can't let such claims stand unanswered.
Anyone reading should see both sides.
First, one concession.
He's right that "build speed" and "cloud scaling speed" are distinct KPIs. My original wording was not clear enough, so I want to sharpen it in this post.
What I measured is the rate at which each company converts power into AI-operational, revenue-generating capacity. That's the KPI that matters for investors in my view, because MW sitting idle is a cost center, not an asset.
Now the main points:
1. A BTC mining facility is not an AI data center.
Agrippa argues IREN was building AI data centers in 2019/2021. But then concedes IREN had to add backup generators, redundancy infrastructure, and the rest to run cloud workloads. That is the work. With newer GPUs, interconnectivity, etc. this work will only get more complicated. I don't think the Bitcoin mining data center skills translate this simply to building world-class AI factories. So my view is still that IREN has built exactly 0 data centers you can count as world-class AI factories to date. There is no data I see that indicates this.
AI data centers require Tier 3+ uptime, high-bandwidth networking, liquid cooling readiness, enterprise compliance, and SLAs that customers underwrite. A shed optimized for hash output does not meet that bar until converted. Calling the pre-conversion asset an "AI data center" because it was later retrofitted is like calling a warehouse a hospital because you could eventually install operating rooms. The conversion is the work. It's not "just" expensive, it's also complicated and takes increasingly rare and expensive talent.
2. The hardware cycle timing thesis is post-hoc.
If IREN was strategically waiting for the right GPU cycle, why deploy H100s in Feb 2024 and H200s after? You cannot simultaneously argue "we timed Blackwell perfectly by waiting" and "we also deployed two prior generations." Those claims are incompatible. The simpler explanation is that the ramp was slower than planned, and the "cycle timing" narrative was built around it after the fact.
3. Independent benchmarks back my view.
SemiAnalysis ClusterMAX 2.0 (Nov 2025) rates 84 GPU cloud providers, covering 95% of the market by volume.
$CRWV: Platinum (only one)
$NBIS: Gold
$IREN: not rated
SemiAnalysis explicitly lists IREN in the Bitcoin miner cohort and writes: "crypto miners are not yet competing at the Platinum or Gold tier for ClusterMAX." Their wording, not mine.
Could IREN get there? Sure. Crusoe started as a miner and made it. But "not yet" is the operative phrase, and it's exactly my original point.
Bottom line.
My original claim was narrow: it is not YET proven that IREN can build and operate AI data centers at Nebius's level. Nothing in this reply disproves that.
The entire reply argues IREN will, or could, or should. Those are forward-looking claims, not facts.
I'm positioned based on demonstrated execution.
IREN investors are positioned based on future cycles converting as planned. Both views are defensible. Neither is misinformation.
IREN has tremendous upside IF they perform. I don't doubt that, but that doesn't make my view dishonest, negative or FUD.
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Kimi K2.6 just dropped.
And it crushed Claude Opus 4.6 on SWE-Bench Pro.
Kimi K2.6: 58.6
GPT-5.4 xhigh: 57.7
Gemini 3.1 Pro: 54.2
Claude Opus 4.6: 53.4
An open source Chinese model is now #1 on agentic coding.
Frontier labs have a problem.

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