Mo

Stock market crashed in, 2020 -34% 2008 -56% 2000 - 49% 1990 - 20% 1987 - 34% 1980 - 27% 1973 - 48% … and recovered to all time highs each and every time! $SPX $SPY $QQQ

@Kelly06932285 Price is in the green zone (6416–6517). That’s the reaction area.

@optionflys So 6416 incoming!

$SPX update - nothing random here. Back on Jan 14, the roadmap was clear: Wave iii → exhaustion Wave iv → corrective phase Fast forward - we now have a clean 3-wave move lower and price has pushed into the projected support zone. This is exactly how sequence plays out. Current move: ~–7.5% (wave iv) April low move: ~–6.9% (wave ii) Same behavior. Different time. Now price is testing the typical wave iv retracement zone (4 vs 3 / 4 vs 2 relationships). This is where reactions happen. Hold → bounce + base building Lose it → next extension lower into deeper fib levels Wave iv can take time — that’s normal. But if price extends too far, the count gets reassessed. No opinions. Just structure doing the work. This has been the most accurate wave count since the April low — to the penny. We’ll circle back over the next couple weeks and month and let the structure confirm how this unfolds. Previous roadmap from Jan 14 below 👇 x.com/optionflys/sta… April 4 → June 18 👇 x.com/optionflys/sta… August 8th 👇 x.com/optionflys/sta… $SPY $QQQ

There is a structure — you’re just expecting a textbook impulse in a place where diagonals are more common. C waves don’t have to print clean 5s, especially in a terminal move. It’s a diagonal in C. That already explains the overlap and lack of a “perfect” impulse. You can label the correction however you want — WXY, flat, zig-zag — it doesn’t change the outcome. What actually matters is the relationship: 4 vs 2 4 vs 3 That’s where the fib confluence sits. That’s the reaction zone. Focus on structure, not perfection.

@optionflys I like the big picture but there is no straightforward 5 waves impulse in C of 4. It is a more complicated structure

Elliott Wave expands and resets like any price structure - it only looks subjective in corrections when people keep moving the goalposts. The count is defined on higher time frames, not noise. Thread shows it since last year. Trees don’t grow to the sky — they shed, then grow again.

@optionflys @Maestro21039454 The point is I've been following the count since April and it has been significantly changed several times. Waves extend, corrections change shapes, zones shift. That's the core of EWA, the inevitable process. Useless for trading and only applicable for investing or as a hobby

OPTEX just fired. This isn’t random. Look at the rhythm. November: –5.5% → V bounce December: –3.4% → continuation January: –3.1% → higher high February: –3.2% → structure holds Every dip was controlled. Rotational. Bought. Now March: –5.5% That’s the shift. We’re no longer in a 3% pullback environment. This is expansion. Acceleration. Same category as November - not noise. Optex = an extreme/mean reversion tool. It flags when price is stretched too far from balance and likely nearing exhaustion. Now you have that signal firing into a –5.5% move. That’s confluence. 6550 is the level. Hold → bounce + base Break → continuation lower Not calling bottom — this is where reactions happen. Let price confirm. $SPX $SPY $QQQ @Optuma

@MBBHACK @Optuma Volume flush helps, but I’ll wait for the fib support cluster to hold before calling higher.

@optionflys @Optuma There’s the volume flush to put the finishing touches on the weekly candle. Now let’s resume higher these coming weeks !

$SPX on track for 4 consecutive lower weekly closes. We’ve all seen this movie before. $SPY $QQQ @Optuma

You don’t need to overthink the correction — call it WXY, flat, or zig-zag if you want, it doesn’t change the outcome. What matters is the wave relationships (4 vs 2 / 4 vs 3) — that’s where the fib confluence and reaction zones are. Wave counts only look “terrible” if you don’t understand how to apply them. Check the full thread since last year — the structure has been mapped step by step.

@Maestro21039454 @optionflys How can you be sure it won't be a flat or a double zigzag? Market recently corrected mostly with a 5 wave structure, last April has been an exception. imho EWA is good for analyzing previous structures but terrible for predictions

@pathrarelytaken It’s not a magnet by itself - but when flows align, it guides the range.

@optionflys Jpm collar is a magnet right now

@pathrarelytaken Let’s see if exhaustion actually confirms here first - next week will tell.

@optionflys 6400 is my target since the 200 day gave up but the real bottom probably won't come till late summer. Think there's real exhaustion in this selling now or close to it.

@SimonWa62764542 Appreciate it - it’s been consistent since last year, let’s see how it unfolds from here.

@optionflys Always appreciate your quality over quantity Mo. Love it, Thank you sir.

@_thefalse9_ It’s called positioning - not guessing.

@optionflys Calling for a bounce every second day, will be right eventually!!

@LeverageMonkey By that definition, markets would bottom when the dog comes back.

@optionflys Recession is when your neighbor loses his job and his wife runs off with the UPS guy… Depression is when you lose your job and your dog runs away but your still stuck with your wife yelling at you to get a job…

Experienced Investor 5% - pullback 10% - correction 20% - bear market 35% - market crash 50% - recession New Investor 5% - market crash 10% - this is the crash 20% - WTF is this 35% - I thought stocks only go up 50% - The Market is a scam. $SPX $QQQ $SPY

@JoeyTphilly You’re early in the journey - this is normal market behavior, not something new.

@optionflys I was only about 4 months into really following the market until last mif-Feb to May. "Easy time" then these 5 months. Idk where I fall in this chart..lol.. (had some stocks thru 2022 but wasn't really involved). Long term- just LETTING IT GO (as my 5yo daughter would tell me)

@T_Harth The question isn’t dip buying - it’s where you buy it.

Dip buying works till it doesn't

@mugzyjones I treat it as a zone, not a specific close - if it fails, next level is 6490

@optionflys Hi Mo is the 6550 line a daily or weekly close? And is there a next level to watch if we have continuation to the downside? Thanks🫡

@volatilemarkts Strong confluence zone, not a line in the sand - levels can always get taken out.

@optionflys Yes 6550... line in the sand

@AmexDomi You’re missing the sequence — signal fired on March 12, you’re looking at the post after that; price reacted +2%, then failed and made a new low, which is exactly how exhaustion and retest play out, and now we watch if 6550 can act as support. x.com/optionflys/sta…

@optionflys Like this ?

@AmexDomi You monetize by trading reactions at key fib levels, not predicting direction.

@optionflys Good, thanks for the explanation. How can one monetize this?

@AmexDomi I don’t predict weeks - I track structure, and confirmation comes when price aligns with it; there are no precise bottoms in trading, only zones where confluence and support matter.

@optionflys All my respect for your work. But I noticed that every week you tell us that the next one will bring the confirmation.

@heathernray1 Higher high comes after this phase plays out - sequence first, then expansion.

@optionflys Agreed. And both are suggesting that higher high. 👏🏻

All hail, Mo. It’s been a great follow all this time. 👏🏻