Mo

Stock market crashed in, 2020 -34% 2008 -56% 2000 - 49% 1990 - 20% 1987 - 34% 1980 - 27% 1973 - 48% … and recovered to all time highs each and every time! $SPX $SPY $QQQ

Everybody talking about AI software. Nobody paying attention to the physical AI bottleneck yet. Humanoid robots don’t run on prompts alone. They need: • sensors • perception • LiDAR • motion control • machine vision That’s why $OUST is getting interesting. LiDAR was left for dead for years. Now the world suddenly wants: autonomous systems, robots, smart factories, warehouses, drones, and machine perception at scale. Weekly wave count now trying to transition into a new expansion phase. 41.65 is the key level. If that breaks clean on the weekly, the next leg can accelerate very fast. Small cap. High volatility. But the wave count + narrative are finally starting to align. $SPX $SPY $QQQ

@jakewjt Too much price overlap right now. Hard to force a clean Elliott count on it. I’d rather wait for clearer structure than try to label noise. For now I’m leaning more on Gann swings for counter trend trades until TSLA cleans up a bit.

@optionflys Would you have an updated count for TSLA? seems to be going through a diagonal w1

$YSS is an interesting name developing quietly in the aerospace & defense space. The company focuses on: • Satellite infrastructure • Military communications • Space networking systems • Land / Sea / Air connectivity Projected growth over the next few years remains very strong. Technically the chart appears to be attempting a higher low after a major corrective phase. If structure confirms above resistance, expansion can happen very quickly in volatile growth names like this. Watching closely over the coming weeks. Structure over narrative. Always. $SPX $SPY $QQQ

@ganga2001 I run scans 3x a day. Pre-market, midday, and after the close. Weekly timeframe does most of the heavy lifting for me. I’m mainly trying to reduce noise and isolate stronger rotational structure. 391 names is too much unless you aggressively tier/filter them first.

@optionflys Nice count. How often do you run scans? This showed up in my scan along with 391 stocks. I'm trying to streamline the scan since 391 stocks is a lot to go through.

You completely missed the point of the post. Nobody said YSS is the “best company” in the space sector. I’m tracking a developing rotational setup with volatility, improving revenue growth, contract-backed backlog, and a potential higher low structure. Big difference. The market pays traders on price expansion, not emotional opinions about a company. If structure confirms → attack. If structure fails → exit. That’s called risk management.

@optionflys This is the worst stock in the space sector; any other company would be better.

@SpoutFi Exactly. This market is rewarding precision, not broad exposure. The index can look strong while most stocks go nowhere.

@optionflys Selective rotation with narrow leadership means the right names matter more than the index

8 consecutive higher weekly closes on the $SPX Last time this happened was late 2023. Back then everybody was calling for the top too. Market just kept grinding higher anyway. Now here we are again. Still seeing narrow leadership underneath though. This is not one of those “everything goes up” environments. This is a sniper market, not a shotgun market. Money is rotating very selectively right now. Some names look incredible. Some are completely dead money. That’s why rotation matters. That’s why structure matters. Most people still chasing headlines. Have a great long weekend with your family and friends. Thank you. $SPY $QQQ @Optuma

@wecoyote13 It showed up on my scanner this morning. Going to continue monitoring the structure and look to establish a new position next week if the higher low + momentum continue improving.

@optionflys yep I want to buy that next 2 pt thanks for covering this name

@TradeMasteryHQ Yep. The technology is ahead of the market structure right now. Everybody talks about tokenization. Nobody talks about settlement, custody and regulation underneath it.

@optionflys SEC delay doesn’t kill tokenized stocks, it just shows the hard part is market structure, custody, settlement, rights, and disclosure have to be clear before this becomes real infrastructure

@Gail20211 Never underestimate markets either. 😂 Politicians come and go. Liquidity, rotation and positioning still run the game underneath it all.

@optionflys Don’t underestimate Trump.

Breadth “coming” and breadth “here” are two different things. 😂 We definitely have improvement vs April lows. But this still isn’t one of those markets where you can blindly buy 300 names and everything rips higher. Leadership is still concentrated. That’s why rotation still matters big time right now.

@optionflys Looks like breadth is coming though x.com/i/status/20578…

@Rebuild_Trading Exactly. That’s the part most people are missing right now. The index looks strong on the surface, but underneath it’s still very selective. This is not broad participation. Right names in the right sectors matter more than ever here. Everything else just becomes noise.

Sniper market is exactly the right description. 8 consecutive higher weekly closes but breadth is narrow, which means the trend ribbon and momentum score matter more right now than ever. Owning the right names in the strongest sectors is the whole game. Everything else is just noise with a ticker symbol.

@wang_wenlo1421 433 is the expansion level. Clear and hold above that on the weekly and MSFT can enter a new expansion phase toward higher extensions. Until then it’s still range behavior inside structure.

@optionflys looks like today or tomorrow msft will be in uptrend again

May seasonality is very clear. $SPX Early strength → mid-month chop → expansion into the back half. $AAPL Steady bid → consistent grind → strength builds into month end. $MSFT Controlled trend → pauses mid-month → resumes higher late. $AMZN Weak / noisy early → rotation → strong recovery late month. $GOOGL Soft start → trend improves → clean push into month end. $META Choppy early → momentum builds → sharp upside late. $TSLA Early digestion → one of the stronger late-month ramps. $NFLX Early strength → peaks mid-month → fades into the end. $NVDA Mixed / rotational early → not clean → improves into late month. May is not a straight move. It’s early strength → mid-month rotation → late expansion. If structure holds → upside window opens into the back half. If not → expect a reset before continuation. $SPY $QQQ @Optuma

The system isn’t breaking because of headlines. It’s breaking because debt math no longer works at higher rates. Every spike in the 10Y yield tightens the noose: Higher borrowing costs Higher deficits More Treasury issuance More pressure on the dollar The Fed’s “solution” will eventually be the same as always: Print. Suppress yields. Debase currency. That’s the trap of a fiat system drowning in debt.

The 10-year Treasury yield is perhaps the most important financial benchmark in the global fiat system, as it drives valuations and market trends worldwide. It is widely—and erroneously—regarded as the risk-free rate of return. The 10-year Treasury yield can be thought of as a key barometer of the US dollar-based fiat system—a critical measure akin to its beating heart. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. When bond prices fall, bond yields rise. A rising 10-year Treasury yield signals trouble for the US dollar because it means investors are selling Treasuries, which pushes up the US government’s borrowing costs. That is why the 10-year Treasury yield is a major pain point for the US government. The 10-year Treasury yield was 3.97% when the war started. Now it is around 4.60%, an increase of roughly 63 basis points. I expect the 10-year Treasury yield to keep climbing over the coming weeks and months—until it forces the Fed’s hand. At that point, the intervention will be sold as “stability,” but the mechanism will be familiar: suppress yields by debasing the currency. At today’s debt levels, every 1 basis point increase in the government’s average borrowing cost adds roughly $3.9 billion in annual interest expense. So a 63 bps rise is not trivial—it translates to nearly $250 billion in additional yearly interest costs, materially widening a 2025 budget deficit that was already around $1.8 trillion. Higher yields mean the US government must pay tens or even hundreds of billions more in interest on its debt. At the same time, the global economy faces even greater added costs because Treasury rates serve as the benchmark for borrowing worldwide. That is not an insignificant move. However, given all the headwinds I have discussed, I suspect the 10-year Treasury yield is headed much higher because investors will demand higher yields to compensate for rising inflation. Further, if Hormuz remains closed, drastically higher oil prices are all but certain. Higher energy prices mean higher prices across the economy and higher official inflation rates, which means investors will demand still higher yields to compensate. The problem is that interest on the federal debt is already over $1.2 trillion and is now the second-largest item in the budget. The US government cannot afford yields going much higher because the interest expense would push it toward bankruptcy. I am not sure how—or even if—the US government can manage this situation. Something has to give, and we will not have to wait long to find out what. The Iran war may prove to be more than another foreign policy disaster. It could be the trigger that exposes the fragility of the entire dollar-based financial system.

After a 19% move in 32 trading days, the market is finally cooling off. Meanwhile: • 30YR yields elevated • crude oil firm • VIX still asleep • QQQ leadership barely cracking This is no longer broad easy-money bullish behavior. Now it becomes: rotation, selective liquidity, narrow leadership, and risk management. The market is starting to reward positioning again instead of blind beta. Structure > narrative. $SPX $SPY $QQQ @Optuma

Yeah exactly. This doesn’t feel like normal healthy bull market behavior anymore. Feels more like AI liquidity overpowering macro stress for now. Yields up. Crude up. Financials weak. Yet QQQ still ripping. That’s not a clean macro backdrop. Rotation is basically holding this whole thing together right now.

@optionflys This is not normal “healthy bull market” behaviour. This looks like a late-cycle inflation/liquidity conflict. Inevitably there will be a correction. This cycle trade has seen tech, m-chips, AI get the invest. The next is energy/power generation to power all of this tech world.

Something unusual is happening beneath the surface. • 30YR yields rising • Crude oil rising • Gold consolidating after a massive run • QQQ still making new highs Historically this combination doesn’t normally persist together for long. The bond market is signaling inflation/debt pressure while AI liquidity continues overpowering macro tightening. Gold exploded higher first. Now it’s digesting while tech and energy continue rotating underneath. Very unusual market structure. Structure > narrative. $SPX $QQQ $SPY @Optuma

@LeverageMonkey @TomasDolega Could happen. But this is exactly why I’m focused more on internal rotation and leadership quality than making aggressive index targets right now. Underneath the index strength, participation still looks very uneven to me.

@optionflys @TomasDolega Pullback to 7,100 would be fine and welcomed. Market will most likely broaden out for a better support if it did. But we will have to see. Could push from here to 7,620 then correct for broadening out. Either one can happen…

@LeverageMonkey @TomasDolega That’s possible too. Markets can absolutely inflate faster than macro deteriorates during liquidity-driven cycles. That’s why I’m focused more on leadership behavior than making an outright crash call right now.

@TomasDolega @optionflys Not necessarily. Signaling inflation & fed hikes rates 0.25% next meeting but S&P still ends the year at 8,000-8,250. People invest to beat inflation so don’t hold your breath on a market crash. 5% pullback sure it can happen but if inflation is higher why would people go to cash

@thetraderspro Exactly. AI liquidity vs macro stress in real time. That’s the battle underneath this entire market right now.

@optionflys QQQ ripping while yields and crude climb together feels a little like the market duct-taping over macro problems with AI enthusiasm.

@oldjohn 100%. The bond market has been screaming that for a while now.

@optionflys Deficits matter.