Morgan Hardy
3.4K posts
Morgan Hardy
@OrganizedPlay
Former nerd game slinger. Slinging mortgage loans in Tennessee and surrounding since 2019 and indignant anger since 2025. NMLS 1906208
In Knoxville's Old City! Katılım Temmuz 2009
385 Takip Edilen359 Takipçiler
Very interesting footage from Russians indicating that Ukrainian Forces use laser light beam to fry fiber optic on "waiter" drones.
Quite unexpected turn of the warfare, take notes.
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@willchamberlain You set a record today with your Tweet volume. Guess it was a bad day for Tammany Hall.
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The Renee Good case was clear-cut self-defense. Objectively, she hit the accelerator when her tires were pointed directly at the officer. If the officer had complete omnipotence he would still have been justified in using deadly force.
The Pretti case is different. It still looks like lawful self-defense, but in this case, if the officers were omnipotent, they would NOT have fired. But from the perception of the individual officer in the moment, all they know is that they are dealing with an agitator who has 1) aggressively confronted a federal law enforcement officer 2) unlawfully interfered in an arrest of a third party and 3) violently resisted arrest. And then the officer hears "gun gun gun." We don't know exactly what that officer was seeing at the time; maybe the body cam video will be probative, maybe not. But the officer is allowed to rely on the perceptions of his colleagues combined with his own, so if he heard "gun gun gun" and saw Pretti reach for his waist that's a lawful shoot *even if the officer was mistaken*.
As Bill Shipley, Jay Town, and Andrew Branca have explained, the law does not come down on officers for actions revealed to be mistakes ex post if they behaved as a reasonable officer would under the circumstances. That's what this is. Being an LEO is hard, you're putting your life at risk when you go out there, and the law doesn't force them to be omnipotent.
The law also tries to protect officers by restricting the conduct of civilians in their presence; restrictions that Mr. Pretti intentionally defied. You aren't allowed to physically confront an LEO while they are performing their duties. You aren't allowed to physically obstruct an arrest of a third party. And you aren't allowed to violently resist arrest when you are detained. These rules aren't just there for the safety of the officer; they are there for the safety of the people being detained and of everyone in the vicinity. And when people like Mr. Pretty commit these crimes while in possession of a firearm they are voluntarily playing Russian Roulette, relying on the officers they call "Gestapo" to be exacting and discerning in their use of force while justifiably fearing for their lives.
Sometimes they aren't, because they are human. But that doesn't mean their conduct is unlawful. And the blame for mistakes like these lies first and foremost on the person who violated numerous criminal statutes and in so doing catalyzed the dangerous situation which led to his death: Mr. Pretti himself.
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@RUSHMOREonX The swinginess of the rivalry keeps it from making even top 10 lists, but for the amount of mutual disrespect and loathing of the other fanbase, Alabama and Tennessee wins.
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LADIES & GENTLEMEN.. In honor of Rivalry Week.
Our 9th episode, Sports Rivalries.
Al Michaels & Bob Costas join Ari & Ben as they try to land on 1 DEFINITIVE Rivalry Rushmore. Thru debate & story telling they discover which 4 rivalries should be ETCHED IN STONE.
HOW'D THEY DO?
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@kevinvdahlgren This is a Housing First story. Any thoughts on that?
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Liberate these people from an oppressive lifestyle” A brilliant quote from my friend John who was street homeless for a year in Portland and is now living in a homeless shelter. He saw first hand the broken system.
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@AstorAaron Dems media imaged by all major brands as ineffectual and incompetent by getting nothing. Could that persist to 2026 and depress turnout?
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Shutdowns rarely get any policy concessions. But they can provide political fodder for either primaries or the next midterm general election. For Dems, this one will wreck Schumer. But it will raise salience of health care affordability for next November if no ACA subsidy passes.
Ronald Brownstein@RonBrownstein
In fairness to Ds, shutdowns haven't been a nuclear weapon: Congressional Rs couldn't force Clinton to sign their budget when they shut down government in 1994-95, or Obama to reverse ACA in the Ted Cruz-led 2013 shutdown. But even by those yardsticks, this still seems....meager.
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@SacAppraiser @ThinkAppraiser @mortgagetruth Contract concessions are easy to dig out of the comps, but this never appears in contract. There is no available record to consumer or appraiser of the cost for a builder inhouse lender to buy down to the 3's.
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@ThinkAppraiser @mortgagetruth @OrganizedPlay Yeah, what he said. There should be adjustments for concessions if the concessions affected the purchase price in the comps. The adjustment is given to comps - not the subject. So, an owner can give whatever they want. The proof of value is found in the comps.
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Here's that elusive 0.99% mortgage rate.
It's for select communities in Texas, perhaps some in Florida, for D.R. Horton properties financed via their captive lender DHI Mortgage.
Part of a 3/2/1 buydown with permanent rate 3.99%.
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@jillayne @mortgagetruth The builders CAN sell their inventory. Whether or not they like the market price they get is a different question.
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@mortgagetruth Pulte is telling him what to do. Pulte knows something we don’t know about the state of the new construction market. They need those home prices to be propped up so the builders can sell their inventory.
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Don's post tells me two very important things.
A) He's never heard of the ATR/QM rule that banned mortgages with loan terms longer than 30 years.
B) He's given up on returning the 30-year fixed to 3% or lower.
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@BowTiedBroke I think there's a couple of years left before Sevier County is unwound. It took four years to find bottom in the GFC because home sellers are extremely reluctant to accept losses. There will eventually be buys that make sense, but we're not there yet.
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I TOLD you this was a bad “investment”. It’s already for sale and they didn’t even make it one full year of owning it as a rental. The writing is always on the wall BEFORE you buy. Many think they will be exceptions to basic math but then they learn the hard way…they are not.
BowTiedBroke@BowTiedBroke
Here is how newbie real estate investors lose their shirts. Chasing dreams. I have a few rules for STR’s. One is: They MUST produce at least 15% of the purchase price in annual gross rental. Pay $1mil? Better be getting $150K in rent per year. Let’s dig into the “wife and I chased our dream” purchase. In the comments, he posted the address. 2864 Pine Haven Dr. Coincidentally, I used to own a rental cabin on this street awhile back. Good area, close to the Pigeon Forge strip. But, this is one of those run of the mill cabins that will really struggle as the newer modern ones continue to be built. The listing claimed that the cabin generated $44,000 in gross rent in 2022! That was the peak year for Airbnb rent in the Smoky Mountains (and most other places for that matter). It’s safe to say that it this cabin probably won’t produce a lot more than that. It may hit $55K a year if some major upgrades are done. But let’s stick with the known $44K and not base our numbers on hypotheticals. At the $455K purchase price, around $90,000 would be needed to put down. Banks generally lend at 80/20 on investment homes. Are there anomalies? Yes. But let’s stick to the general rule. A $365,000 loan at around 7%, will have a total payment (P&I, tax, insurance) of around $2,900/month. With Airbnb’s you also pay the electric bill, gas bill, water, sewer, cable, Internet, pest control and all other normal home expenses each month. For a home this size all of that will be between $800-$1,000 per month. Let’s round up to the $1K for simplicity. And this doesn’t even factor in if anything breaks on this dated cabin. (HVAC, appliances, hot tub) Now their total expense per month is $2,900 + $1,000. Let’s take the $44,000 this place did in 2022 and divide by 12 months. $3,667. Revenue of $3,667 - $3,900 =$-233.00 of negative cash flow each month. Depreciation from tax benefit? Sure, but you pay that back in the form of recapture when it’s sold. All in all this was a horrible purchase. They need to sink at least $50,000-$75,000 to update it. And it still won’t produce over $60,000 a year. How do I know? Mine was a dated 3/3 around here and it only did $65,000. This purchase is a prime example of dreams turning into nightmares. They just don’t know it yet.
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Highlight from PCE: Personal savings rate is accelerating its drop. Services continues to outrun wage growth. With the exception of the tax refund month (April), it's basically a straight line down.
Very little power left to hike prices, which will pass into lower profits.
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@luireigns I remember watching this in the moment and thinking it was actually an interesting match. I didn't think Goldberg looked lost or bad, and I didn't think Regal did anything out of his norm. I thought it was just part of Goldberg's rise to have to overcome a technical opponent.
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Remembering Lord Steven Regal, who is famous for giving a confused Goldberg a stiff, competitive match, something he was not used to in his flourishing WCW career
He was fired a week later
This match showed us in real time how unprepared Goldberg was to actually wrestle 😭💀
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@adcwaste Totally respect that - and terms for commercial lending are really rough right now. Just wanted to make sure you knew there's more out there for you :)
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@OrganizedPlay At the moment, I’m skating by and trying not to borrow more money to solve my problems.
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Almost a year ago I put an offer in on piece of property with a condition of a zoning changes. The property was originally residential and I needed approval for industrial with a special use of waste management.
Luckily my realtor happened to also be a county commissioner and walked me through the whole process!
But only weeks before closing my bank informed me they would not approve my loan for a multitude of reasons.(trailers instead of permanent structures and tax return)
I was devastated, but I had the cash to close, stuck in a pickle I chose to fork out the cash and spend $200k in cash to close. Then I spent another $70k in cash to build to suite.
I have never in my life spend money in such volume! I remember the anxiety I had writing checks. I emptied my bank accounts. I kept telling myself it’ll be worth it. It’s okay, you’ll make more money!
Here I am a year later. Still feeling the burn from the vomit I had on my cash flow.
I’m feeling like I screwed up. It wasn’t worth it.
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@mortgagetruth SPM has a great reputation in wholesale. I know Union Home has a channel, but I don't hear much about them.
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Rapidly growing Union Home Mortgage to acquire Folsom, CA-based Sierra Pacific Mortgage.
The lender did about $2.7B in home loan volume last year, with nearly half in its home state.
Will give Union Home a large presence in the Golden State, where it currently has very little.
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I am not a conspiracy type of guy but there are things I want to wonder out loud:
* The shooter leaves a note, confesses to parents, agrees to be turned in... and then doesn't cooperate?
* Reported texts with mixed capitalization styles, rhythm changes, and no timestamps?
* A 70-year old guy who offers himself up as the shooter, then volunteers to the authorities that he has illegal underage photos on his phone before they even look?
If Stephen Miller wrote the script for what the perfect scenario for justifying extrajudicial action against the administration's opponents would look like, this is it.
But life rarely naturally looks like a script.
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@willchamberlain Congratulations, you earned the only like I think you'll ever get from me in this lifetime.
It's unacceptable to give a social incentive for assassination.
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Correct. The squishes decrying this as "right-wing cancel culture" need to step back for a second and think about what happens if political assassination becomes normalized.
Normalizing means more assassinations. A lot more. Eventually that will require our faction to treat the continued assassination of our leaders as a de facto civil war, suspend habeas corpus, and simply arrest and imprison massive numbers of leftists without trial - as a means of preemptive self-defense.
We don't want to go down that route. Obviously. But it demonstrates that a prerequisite to any kind of democratic system is the freedom to express your opinion without fear of being assaulted or murdered for it. Without that baseline agreement among the overwhelming bulk of the public, the end result will be some sort of authoritarian rule by one faction or the other.
And so we MUST draw a line at the celebration of political assassination. It may be lawful, but it is abhorrent, and MUST result in severe social consequences, so that it never becomes normalized and so that our democratic experiment does not collapse.
Congressman Brandon Gill@RepBrandonGill
It’s not “cancel culture” for someone to lose his job for celebrating a political assassination. It’s a just and necessary consequence if we want to maintain freedom of speech and our constitutional order.
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@Solwoldjr74 @EstateBets1135 @JustinWolfers The standard conventional second home rider only binds you to two weeks occupancy in the first year's ownership.
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The issue should be if she rented out any of her second homes. She is required to inhabit each second home at least 14 nights/yr, so an STR is fine but LTR is not. Reports are she collected rent on them. Are those reports true and were they LTR or STR? I dont know (mainly because I dont care enough to research it🤣🤣)
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“If merit matters…” 😂
Thanks for the laugh, @JustinWolfers
If merit mattered, he never would have been appointed to or confirmed for his position on the cabinet. He’d be using his broadcast journalism degree as a beat reporter for the Youngstown Vindicator…
Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers
A sneering midwit with inherited wealth got the facts wrong, and accused an honest public servant—Lisa Cook—of fraud. His meddling created a crisis well beyond his portfolio, undermining the Fed. @Pulte can do the right thing and resign. And if merit matters, he'll be fired.
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@RepThomasMassie And conservatism is reliant on government force to maintain the power of the existing rulemaking class. All of our ancestors carved out our private property in blood, and all of us are ultimately reliant on violence or the threat thereof to defend it.
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At its core, leftist ideology is based on violence toward individuals.
Leftists depend on government force to control human behavior and redistribute private property.
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This is awesome John :) A note - rate sheets are 'lumpy' and when the dominant coupon shifts (like recently happened from MBS 5.5-->5), it can be a lot cheaper to acquire the bottom rate of the coupon. So there are certain points that a mini boom will unlock whenever there is a coupon shift, and we just hit one of those marks. It does require discount points to get that lowest rate in the coupon, but the recoupment of them is typically much stronger than the rates above it.
The MUCH bigger refi wave will be when we hit MND 5.8 or so.
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Why is $RKT good at refinance?
One key reason is they manufacture 30-40bps extra perceived refi incentive by financing discount points. More than most lenders and way more than depositories.
I do a detailed review of the refinance incentive on every owned GSE MSR in Rocket and Coopers book that are in MBS. Portfolio incentive broken out in .05 (6.00-6.05) increments in the latest at my stack. Link in first reply.
@Aureliusltd28 @fallacyalarm
E.g. FHLMC rate/term refis from fall 2024
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@ethanflynncpa Looking at the map, I'd offer one other reason - these are the most heavily built tracts right now, and there's both more competition from relatively cheap rentals due to overbuilding, and also a significant change in those tracts' community character and appeal.
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Beware of any national posting of “investor” data in housing.
There’s no consistent way to aggregate who qualifies as an “investor” across the U.S. — State and Local datasets vary widely making a standardized approach inconsistent.
For example, Redfin’s approach: they flag an investor when the owner name includes keywords like LLC, Inc, Trust, Corp, Homes.
That simply doesn’t work in Tennessee. Many investors here buy property in their personal name for tax reasons. And plenty of “Trusts” are tied to owner-occupied homes. Using that definition misclassifies both ways.
A far better metric is Owner Occupied % of Transactions — defined as any property where the Owner Address differs from the Location Address.
This cuts through the noise around “second homes” vs. “investments.” If the owner doesn’t live at the property, the risk profile changes — and that’s what matters.
The results are fascinating.
In Nashville, areas with a higher share of Non-Owner Occupied transactions are exactly where we’ve seen some of the steepest price drops and lowest liquidity.
Many of these are also big STR (AirBNB) areas.
Would be curious to get other's take on what an investor is? How would you define it?
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