John Comiskey

Why is $RKT good at refinance? One key reason is they manufacture 30-40bps extra perceived refi incentive by financing discount points. More than most lenders and way more than depositories. I do a detailed review of the refinance incentive on every owned GSE MSR in Rocket and Coopers book that are in MBS. Portfolio incentive broken out in .05 (6.00-6.05) increments in the latest at my stack. Link in first reply. @Aureliusltd28 @fallacyalarm E.g. FHLMC rate/term refis from fall 2024

Remarkable what happens when the nearly boundless FHA partial claims and loan modifications become bounded again. Cure rates should go up some though in the March data as the first trial payment plans start completing. Big question is how much.

@dfwaaronlayman did you already have the L2 able outlet or did you have to install it? We bought a 2022/40k one 3 months ago mostly to pour miles on efficiently (wife drives alot), was pleasantly surprised how much fun it is to drive. Love the i-pedal mode.

'Surging Gas Prices Reignite EV Interest' Yes, they do. 🙂 Picked up a gently used former MotorTrend SUV of the Year for less than half of original sticker. Great car, and a nice hedge against continued insanity in Washington. In truth, we had been looking for the better part of the year. Lucked out when a local option finally materialized with the specs we wanted. finance.yahoo.com/news/surging-g…

@RealestMercury @jonbrooks The data I analyze spans the 7.1m FHA loans in GNMA_II MBS out of the 8.2m or so loans IIF. The performance of the 1.1m on servicers books is notably worse given the full portfolio SDLQ of 6.24 vs. the 5.15 for just GNMA_II MBS in January.

@jonbrooks @Johncomiskey77 You sir are a f*** degenerate.

Serious delinquent FHA loans are 47% higher than they were last October - @Johncomiskey77 This matters because FHA borrowers are typically the most rate-sensitive and financially stretched segment of the housing market. When stress shows up here first… it rarely stays contained. The cracks in housing are getting harder to ignore.

@ZH_Crown @dampedspring @dispicable2020 In a literal sense, your wealth is what the community you live in respects as yours. The govt is the agent (imperfect though it may be) of that community. Impossible for it to not be influenced by government. Just a policy choice for what that influence is.

What is the alternative? Without a middle class there is no hope for the future, should we just say fuck it and give up?

@BigBearBummers Pairs nicely with the gold frame around the closet mirror doors.

You know how much I love green carpets!! 💚 redfin.com/CA/Big-Bear-Ci…

Again, if you're tired of waiting and have money burning a hole in your pocket – go ahead and buy. But don't fool yourself into thinking this is the bottom. This seller, who closed just 10 weeks ago, is about to learn a very expensive lesson.

@EPBResearch @sidprabhu Drops 15-20b a month due to principal paydown and prepayments. Unlikely to change much from that given how super low the coupons are on the Feds book. I think its a legit question whether he will alter the Feds MBS reinvestment -> tbills policy though I dont think he will.

@sidprabhu How much will it go down before he gets there? And then will be abstain from buying MBS during his term? Or be like the rest of them?

Mortgages make up 30% of the Fed’s balance sheet. Will Warsh get this % down? If so, how much?

Last 3 FYs for Individual Refunds in DTS were 298.5b in FY 23, 298.9b in FY 24, and 302.7b in FY 25. My model has it pegged for 364b FY26. I think Treasury is projecting more (maybe 100b) based on their QRA finance need projections. FWIW I nailed the first week of Feb but very early innings.

@EtraAlex @EconBerger @EconstratPB @tylermacro10 @ericadyork @DonFSchneider @George_A_Callas @JessicaBRiedl @Brendan_Duke @Johncomiskey77 @kpomerleau @KClausing @stanveuger @AlanMCole TCJA was prospective, OBBBA is retroactive. There was nothing to refund with TCJA. There will be with Obbba

A question for budget/tax wonks: One pillar of the "team reacceleration" case (ht @EconBerger) is the expectation that OBBBA tax refunds will start coming through. But if I look at DTS back when TCJA passed I cannot see any change on individual refunds? Is this a DTS problem?

@NegConv3xity @DiMartinoBooth @m3_melody @SoberLook @ICEMortgageTech Agree that is the key thing to watch. Should start reflecting in the February data with the image coming into sharper focus over the two months after that

@Johncomiskey77 @DiMartinoBooth @m3_melody @SoberLook @ICEMortgageTech the only thing that matters is what will the success rate of TPP's be, everything else is just noise.

“The forbearance rate is rising rapidly among stressed FHA borrowers, with 56% of FHA mortgages that are 90+ days delinquent & under foreclosure protection now in forbearance, the highest share in more than four years.” cc @m3_melody @Johncomiskey77 @SoberLook @ICEMortgageTech

Forbearance is a step in Loss Mitigation, one of the earliest, would typically be done prior to a partial claim/loan modification. Borrower experiences a financial hardship, knows they cant pay mortgage this month but isnt sure what is going to happen with the hardship (maybe just lost job and looking for a new one). Probably makes sense to forbear for a few months while the future financial picture for the borrower becomes more clear, then a few months later pursue either a partial claim or loan mod depending whether the borrower needs payment relief after the hardhips has resolved (say borrower had to take a lesser paying job). Forbearance delays servicers requirement to start FC timeline, but servicer still has to pay all the advances so not exactly good for the servicer which is why Im a little puzzled by the recent increase in forbearances on the FHA. The new LM guidelines from FHA make the FB at the servicers option (except for disaster area FB which is mandatory). I would have thought servicers would pull back. the forbearances on the 7.1m have been growing in aggregate but its a very inconsistent story across servicers, some are doing many more, some are doing less. Think there may be confusion in the industry on just what the new rules are.

@DiMartinoBooth @m3_melody @Johncomiskey77 @SoberLook @ICEMortgageTech They flipped from loss mitigation to forbearance? Seems like this is a continuation of bail outs. Am I missing something?

@erin96468946 @DiMartinoBooth @psychodough @m3_melody @OTCStockReview @SoberLook @ICEMortgageTech spans the gamut but yeah a good chunk of them are at least functionally underwater (LTV > 94/95)

@Johncomiskey77 @DiMartinoBooth @psychodough @m3_melody @OTCStockReview @SoberLook @ICEMortgageTech What’s the vintage of these loans? I would imagine 2022 and later have very little equity to play with.

@onetrickpony Thank you for the kind words

@Johncomiskey77 is an absolute must follow. Read his January FHA Delinquency Report. It is short money to pay for his Substack. Going to be a fantastic resource to people these next couple years..... substack.com/home/post/p-18…

@psychodough @m3_melody @OTCStockReview @DiMartinoBooth @SoberLook @ICEMortgageTech I would expect first forced sales/short sales resulting from all this to start hitting in the next few months. FCs will take quite a bit longer to play out.

@m3_melody @OTCStockReview @DiMartinoBooth @Johncomiskey77 @SoberLook @ICEMortgageTech when are they going to hit the gas pedal on selling these homes so we can get some price discovery and get back to an average income affordability again. Been waiting for so long

@m3_melody @joe_schlindwein @DiMartinoBooth @SoberLook @ICEMortgageTech Keep me honest melody but practical impact to the servicer on a forbearance is ability to delay FC timeline right. A little puzzled why so many are being done now since I thought the new FHA rules made it easier for the servicer to not. (killing special forbearance e.g.)

@joe_schlindwein @DiMartinoBooth @Johncomiskey77 @SoberLook @ICEMortgageTech You are thinking of the Partial Claim program. These are short-term forbearances meant for when someone loses their job, etc. There is an entire array of options. That program was the most generous and most prone to fraud. Those guardrails will make a huge difference.

@MortConsumCoach @m3_melody @DiMartinoBooth @OTCStockReview @SoberLook @ICEMortgageTech Yep, just look at the loss severity on claim numbers in the annual FHA report to Congress.

@m3_melody @DiMartinoBooth @OTCStockReview @Johncomiskey77 @SoberLook @ICEMortgageTech I was just sent a video of a home in the FHA program. 3 FHA subordinate liens filled. The owner has had no water or electricity for months. The realtor could barely breathe inside the place. Buying distressed notes has many problems and doing it randomly will not work.

@DavidB9715 @DiMartinoBooth @m3_melody @SoberLook @ICEMortgageTech When the 7+ million student loans in the SAVE repayment plan (that is still in forbearance) are forced to a plan that actually requires repayment (timing still unknown but would make sense in June with new Repayment Assistance Plan). It will likely affect 500k-1m FHA borrowers.

@DiMartinoBooth @m3_melody @Johncomiskey77 @SoberLook @ICEMortgageTech Q2/Q3 headwinds. Everyone thought Melody was crazy but she was just very early. Real estate YouTube bro’s have completely disappeared the past few months.

@danstev47803876 @VladTheInflator yep, repairs being the landlords problem is an underrated aspect of renting imo.

@VladTheInflator I would say that’s generous; you could argue you need to adjust for expected maintenance costs.

Rent is reality. If you can't rent your home out for what you would pay in mortgage PITI HOA, you're overpaying for the house.

@dampedspring QE innit........l Lol....good morning Andy!

While I prefer a fed to End the Fed. This stupid reinvestment policy still pisses me off. Just sayin.

@mortgagetruth @stevehou Community/govt endorsed chits to obtain community/govt enforced rights to use/enjoy assets that fall within the community/govts power projection. A little tortured perhaps but gets the essence right I think.

@stevehou What’s money?

US govt is telling us: buy real assets. Money is worthless.

@jonbrooks @MaryBowdenMD Get yourself to Aldi Jon.

@MaryBowdenMD never seen $10. that's wild. Still around $4 in florida

Groceries have become insanely expensive. I just paid $10 for a gallon of milk at Kroger.