Porchy

Your weekly reload is ready 🎁

20 days ago a fresh wallet received $50.4M USDT from Binance. Just a bit ago, they swapped the entire amount for 327 AAVE worth ~$36K routed through CoW Protocol via Sushiswap. They paid $154K per AAVE. In the same block, an MEV bot immediately flash borrowed $29M WETH from Morpho, bought AAVE via Bancor @ fair value, and dumped the AAVE into the Sushiswap pool, repayed the flash loan, and pocketed $9.9M.

At first glance, pressing the button seems like a great opportunity. Each press has a 50% chance to double your wealth and a 50% chance to halve it (EV = 1.25x). Mathematically, this implies infinite presses should lead to infinite wealth. It becomes an infinite random walk where every positive outcome occurs with certainty. Awesome. In theory. However, a game can offer a seemingly generous +25% average return on each press, yet most participants can still lose money because of the nature of multiplicative betting. The mean (average) wealth can explode to extremely large amounts with the median (the wealth of the typical participant) and the majority of players losing money. In this game, wealth compounds multiplicatively, not additively. The average outcome is wildly profitable. The typical outcome is stagnation or loss. The majority of players go to zero, on a series of highly +EV trades. The problem is in how much you bet each time. Position sizing transforms this risky gamble into a sustainable strategy. Let's say you do 50% instead of 100%. It instantly becomes a great strategy. In any high-volatility, positive-EV scenario, the path to long-term profitability for the majority is careful position sizing. Survival is a prerequisite for realizing your edge. “Just survive” is not simply feel-good advice but actually useful.

by age 21 you should have gambled your entire net worth multiple times

Off to the races! 🐎 Starting with a bang, we're offering a 100% refund as a free bet to anyone who bets on the Cheltenham 2026 races. Head over to our site to claim now.