p@w4io

@jasonpizzino Not sure about the rank but he would definitely give his opponents 2 weeks to agree to draw

If Trump played online chess, what would his ranking be? ♟️

@spectatorindex @TheShortBear This explains why France VETOED Hormuz opening by force. France was weak 100 years ago and weak now, nothing changed

BREAKING: French-owned container ship passes through Strait of Hormuz, in 'what appears to be the first known transit by a vessel linked to Western Europe since the Iran war', according to Bloomberg report.

@KobeissiLetter Super power shaking of some post on X. We definitely live in the times of weak men

BREAKING: Iran's Speaker of the Parliament creates an X poll on if he should "name names on a handful of bankers and hedge funds who met, decided to hold Washington's Iran war policy hostage, then launched a campaign." Poll options are: "Yes, nah, and Ackman here: Invite lost?"

@TheShortBear Thats so smart when whole world depends on single passage controlled by single entity and the Trumpbis an idiot?

Got to wonder if Iran shifts tactic after yesterday. If they can't get NATO/Asia to put pressure to stop this war they might end up helping them. In the long term Iran is in the weird position to be able to offer safe passage through a deal with ex-US, essentially inflicting pain to the US through the Petro dollar and through cutting them off from the Oil trade. The world leaders have been mocked, belittled, disrespected, pressured, forced... over the past months. European leaders are looking for a diplomatic solution but Trump pushes forward without discussing it. The world won't want to wait for Trump to fully blow this up, so they'll likely cut a deal to get the oil flowing. Getting oil from the US as an exporter, to the contrary of what Trump said is not even possible right now. Iran could be repositioning as they get the chance to bypass the US and focuses on decreasing the US power both from a regional perspective and from a US-petrodollar perspective. Hence perhaps Oil ex-US tops or gets flowing while US loses what is harder to quantify in the short to mid term while perhaps markets slowly recover. Just a thought as the original tactic by Iran was likely to make trump bend through markets and oil prices which has not worked so far.

@KonstantinKisin 1st April you too

Delighted to announce I have accepted a position as lead speechwriter and PR advisor to the greatest Prime Minister in British history, Sir Keir Starmer. Together, we will continue to rebuild our country's military and ensure Britain's energy security in a turbulent world.

@TheShortBear Good times make what?

It’s probably all going to come down to this weekend. Will the US stall and blame Iran for failing to negotiate or not. After all that’s what seems to have happened in the first place as negotiations took place prior to the operation. My main fear remains Israeli escalation to keep this going while I think US incentives are mostly pointing towards an exit and deal. As the troops arrive on Friday, it is possible we see the war continue however that said the terms from both ends are actually very close (compared let’s say to Russia x Ukraine). The combination of close terms, all targets having been achieved honestly apart from regime change and the major backlash the admin would get for getting troops involved right into midterms really create an incentive. On the Iranian side make no mistakes, if the US goes for the energy and alike, it will create a real mass panic as the population asks for an end to the madness. Without Oil to fund the regime and a large part of Iran now incentivized to take power it becomes a very dangerous game. That said the gulf and alike would get involved and Iran fully destroyed in order to get back to peace. But again Oil prices, troops, nato allies and investments from abroad and midterms create the incentives the US needs. It all comes down to this, should war be the path forward it will be very ugly for the world economy but there will be no way back, it will come down to the decimation of the Iranian regime as we know it. Let peace be the way.

@itslirrato Just before Trump and Xi meeting.

Just tracked a highly suspicious group of 10 Polymarket wallets They're trying to stay under the radar by splitting into small positions, but I caught their pattern - All in on YES for US x Iran ceasefire by Mar 31/Apr 15 - $7K to $24K in positions per wallet - 99% of positions were bought with market orders - Combined size: $160K - Payout if a ceasefire hits by EOM: +$1.04M 2 of these exact wallets previously bet YES on the US striking Iran before Feb 28 and cashed out $135k This accumulation is still happening as of today Someone is building a massive position under the radar Hard to believe these are just random users

@KobeissiLetter Now Trump delivered what he promised to Paul Singer, the demand for Venezuelan crude oil. Price is high enough to refine this crap

BREAKING: The US is "dismayed" by Israel's strikes on 30 Iranian oil depots on Saturday, sparking the first "significant disagreement" between the allies since the war began, per Axios. Details include: 1. The strikes reportedly went "far beyond" what the US expected when Israel notified it in advance 2. "We don't think it was a good idea," a senior US official said 3. An Israeli official said the US message to Israel was "WTF" 4. "The president doesn't like the attack. He wants to save the oil. He doesn't want to burn it. And it reminds people of higher gas prices," a Trump adviser said US gas prices are now expected to surge well above $4/gallon this month.

@KobeissiLetter Israel doesnt start the engine w/o us approval. Good joke about they didnt know LOL

@DeItaone France dont give a F word about closure, as long as it is closed, France is getting cheaper oil shipped from Yanbu. A half rhe price of going to Hormuz

FRANCE'S MACRON:IRAN MUST END CLOSURE OF STRAIT OF HORMUZ

@ed_fin @TheShortBear If it a punishment, why would you do it 1-1? Take down 10 so it will reach the mind faster. Why to wait for 5 ships?

My proposal for re-establishing US deterrence in the Strait of Hormuz. 1. Iran’s tanker fleet is below, including 38 VLCCs which they depend on for their crude oil exports. Issue an ultimatum to Iran: Every time you attack a merchant vessel, we torpedo one of your vessels.

@KobeissiLetter @TheShortBear How Iran knows which ship linked to whom? They demand each ship "be honest or we destroy you"? When you have no idea which ship goes where you just blundly block all

BREAKING: Iran says it has NOT entirely closed the Strait of Hormuz, but ships linked to the US or Israel are not allowed to pass.

@KobeissiLetter @TheShortBear Iran behaves like they own the passage and the world shakes in front of crazy regime including contries with enormous welth cant do shit. And the Trump is the problem? Good time make weak men

@TheShortBear Iran can do nothing. Its just stupid western iseas of managing wars. Put out iran refineries and power plants and Iran capitulates. Then rebuold and control Iran Instead Trumpnis doing all the wrong. Same goes for for Putin crazy love while russia at edge of collapse

Be ready for Russian oil to start flowing through the system again. This is pretty much the best-case scenario for them as Europe, China, and India all quietly scramble for supply. Sanctions or not, energy demand always finds a path, and discounted barrels will continue to move where buyers need them. For Europe, the reality is that industry still needs reliable energy. Even if the barrels don’t come directly from Russia, they often circle through intermediaries before ending up back in European markets. That weakens the long-term leverage of sanctions and keeps Russian exports alive. This also increases pressure on the United States to push toward some form of end to the war. The longer instability lasts, the more global capital starts looking for stability elsewhere, which it will increasingly find in the far east. The same goes for investment capital and military positioning in the Middle East. Energy infrastructure, shipping lanes, and regional bases are all tied to stability in that region. I would suspect Saudi Arabia has already reached out to the U.S. in a very direct manner regarding the security of the region and the economic consequences if things spiral. A huge pressure point remains the Strait of Hormuz. Even small disruptions there drive tanker insurance rates up and ripple through global oil prices almost immediately. It doesn’t take much instability to move markets. Iran also has a menu of escalation targets short of full war. Shipping harassment, proxy strikes on regional bases, attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure, and even indirect hits on desalination or power systems that supply major Gulf cities. None of these close the Strait outright, but all of them move markets quickly. At this point the entire world, Europe, Asia, and the Gulf states, wants this situation wrapped up as quickly as possible. Energy markets, shipping, and global investment flows all depend on it. The U.S., make no mistake, wants this too but does not currently have a clean exit. My best guess right now is that Iran has very fragmented leadership on the ground. Anyone senior enough to initiate major moves is likely hesitant, especially with thousands of smaller groups now acting independently in what amounts to a decentralized form of jihad. That leaves one difficult option for the United States: continue pressure until either a regime change emerges internally or any new leadership that arises is neutralized before it consolidates power. There is also a scenario where Washington quietly stabilizes a new IRGC leadership figure rather than removing him, simply to create someone capable of negotiating. Prediction markets reflect that uncertainty. The odds of a ceasefire by these dates are: - March 6 : 1 % - March 15:, 12 % - March 31: 28% - April 30: 48% - May 31: 61% - June 30: 68% History also suggests fast pivots can happen. In the previous Gulf escalation earlier this year, Donald Trump initially rejected the idea of a ceasefire, only to pivot toward de-escalation roughly a week later once military signaling had been established. Also keep in mind midterms are coming fast and 2 out of 3 major categories are on dead lows in terms of approval rate. The combination of lower markets and general bad poles will matter as Trump watches them closely! The best realistic outcome would be a ceasefire or negotiated peace with two major conditions. Protection of the Strait of Hormuz against militia groups and proxy attacks. Any nuclear weapons capability dismantled, with nuclear material destroyed or placed under strict monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Until something like that happens, the world will continue operating in a constant cycle of energy shocks, geopolitical pressure, and market volatility.

@KobeissiLetter Speaking about mistakes of the past, what was the stance of most europe during 1935? Avoidance?

BREAKING: Spain's Prime Minister responds to President Trump cutting off all US trade with Spain: 1. "NO to violations of international law" 2. "NO to the illusion that we can solve the world’s problems with bombs" 3. "NO to repeating the mistakes of the past" 4. "NO TO WAR" Spain says they have "faced this moment before" during the 2003 Iraq War. Spain continues to ban the US from using its military bases for operations in Iran.

@unusual_whales When you dont have any $ you can promise any amount. In worse case you give up something else but the deal is done

Russia is offering a $12 trillion pitch to Trump tied to Ukraine deal, per the Kyiv Independent.

@IvanOnTech Set buy orders on 10-20% above the price target most ppl expect. A 38-40k is really good price even if it goes lower

Prepare for a period of sideways movement in Bitcoin as it approaches a key buy zone. Tech stocks are also facing pressure, but long-term value remains for smart investors. #Bitcoin #TechStocks #IvanClips

@DeItaone Sold iranian ppl. Just like w/ Ukraine, continued giving infinite time to Putin hoping he will end Ukrainians. Always on wrong side of the deal or grows balls against those that dont have missiles to launch

TRUMP ON IRAN: IF WE HAVE A DEAL, THEY'LL BE LEAVING SOON

@GarethSoloway This guy is always wrong. Such a joke. Now he is hoping 85k. Gareth the dummy way

Bitcoin showing signs of life as it pushes higher. Micro bull flag continues to try and play out. If it does, upside between $80,000-$85,000 is likely.

@coinbureau Easy to guess why and who is stacking huge amounts

🚨ETHEREUM STAKING CLIMBS TO AT ALL-TIME HIGH DESPITE SUB-$2K LEVELS Ethereum’s staking ratio hits a new ATH surpassing 30% of total supply, with 36.8M ETH ($72BILLION) now locked and nearly 1M validators securing the network.