PaddBear 🎻🎺

@timfarron @bit_cosby Disagree. Boris "let the bodies pile high" Johnson was a batshit-crazy psycho too. Tough competition as to which of the two is worse.

Is there anybody sane or with a backbone anywhere near this administration? The UK’s (part-written) constitution is seriously flawed, but there’s no chance that a PM could be even 10% this bonkers and not have been removed by now…

@spectatorindex There's 161 million American taxpayers. $1.5 trillion is $9317 from each. $1.06/hour. $25.5/day (average salary after tax). $36/work day. 7 work hours/week. What do they get in return? They pay more for everything. +$3.5 per day for gas at current prices and consumption.

@fkronawitter1 It sets a good precedent. $2m to transit the English channel, for example, would be a nice windfall for Britain and France.

The current market "meme" is a unilateral US retreat from Iran, possibly announced tonight Aside from that being a very bad option (leaves Iran w keys to Hormuz as new OPEC), the below also makes it less likely

@mr_mayank @chenweihua UK and Germany should follow Spain's example. Europe needs to be united on this. @Keir_Starmer @_FriedrichMerz

BREAKING : 🇪🇸 Spanish Defence Minister sent chilling warning to Trump “We will not allow the use of US bases in Spain or even the Spanish airspace. We are completely against this war against 🇮🇷 Iran” 🔥 Spain under Pedro Sánchez will be remembered for ages for being on the right side of history 🫡

@MarvinTBaumann I'd love to see it. With a directly elected President, a short and clear Constitution, and a Parliament with teeth, elected every 2 years like the US House.

I'm super curious how well a Europe would work where we add a European state, remove the national administrative layer and keep all provincial and local layers.

@fchollet Having recently read Blake Crouch's "Upgrade", I think what humans are most lacking is not intelligence but empathy. You could have superhuman intelligence but still be selfish or evil.

I do believe that a large collective of the smartest humans, aided by external tools, sits very close to the optimality bound -- i.e. humans should be able to solve any solvable problem (where the required information is available) if they pay enough attention to it

One of the biggest misconceptions people have about intelligence is seeing it as some kind of unbounded scalar stat, like height. "Future AI will have 10,000 IQ", that sort of thing. Intelligence is a conversion ratio, with an optimality bound. Increasing intelligence is not so much like "making the tower taller", it's more like "making the ball rounder". At some point it's already pretty damn spherical and any improvement is marginal. Now of course smart humans aren't quite at the optimal bound yet on an individual level, and machines will have many advantages besides intelligence -- mostly the removal of biological bottlenecks: greater processing speed, unlimited working memory, unlimited memory with perfect recall... but these are mostly things humans can also access through externalized cognitive tools.

@LogicalThesis Yes

Im curious. Does anyone keep my notifications on?🔔

@robin_j_brooks Germany, romantic? You've got to be kidding, they're one of the Wurst.

Consistently the world's top 5 most romantic cuisines: 1. Germany (see photo) 2. Sweden 3. Poland 4. Italy 5. UK

@LogicalThesis It's very useful. I'm guessing you're outperforming the S&P YTD by a good margin?

I get a ton of hate on my posts around risks to markets and my high cash position I'd really appreciate if you could tell me if my commentary has been useful to any of you while navigating this volatility over the last month(s)

@DiscussingFilm Please don't support JK Rowling or her products. She's using her millions to make trans people's lives a misery.

First trailer for the ‘HARRY POTTER’ series. Releasing this Christmas on HBO.

We had a good thing, you stupid son of a bitch. We had an AI super cycle. We had deflationary growth. You could've shut your mouth, grifted, and made as much money as you ever needed. It was perfect. But no. You just had to blow it up. You. And your pride and your ego.

@BlueChipPremium Renewed my subscription on Monday but not yet getting the emails.

@DAX40 Very sorry for your loss.

@letsplayftse Have you read this? I have it on my computer somewhere. Need to find and re-read.

@EmmanuelMacron @republicofeu Vive l'Europe. Vive la France. Vive le Président de la République.

À bord du porte-avions Charles de Gaulle en Méditerranée.

@BitcoinUndisc @SantiagoAuFund An impressive reply but - no offence - I think it's telling you what it thinks you want to hear based on its prior interactions with you. Also it completely belittles the issue of how a supposedly good God can allow so much suffering, which is a deal-breaker for many.

Paid v Free!

@CryptoCount34 @Citrini7 Printing hugely changes the unit of accounting but doesn't fix the actual problem.

@Citrini7 Why does every bear case assume the government doesn’t print hugely in the face of massive technological deflation? They’ve shown time and again a willingness to do this.

JUNE 2028. The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation. What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

@jimcx0 @Citrini7 Make that 2031.

@MaxUnfried Whales are the obvious one. Maybe AI can help us learn whaleish?

What do other species know about our world that we humans do not know, and how can we increase knowledge transfer between species?