Papi Puts

@aynirealtor @ThierryBorgeat do you realize what happens when one hyperscalar slows down, which they will due to collapsing stock price and then semis report slow down in their businesses. on top of global macro storm coming next month, how many times can I tell people how to make money…

@papiputs @ThierryBorgeat x.com/sethcl/status/…

We've been here before. Netscape browser: Dec 1994. The internet changes everything. Nasdaq: +155% over the next 858 days. ChatGPT: Nov 2022. AI changes everything. Nasdaq: +129% over the next 858 days. The paths are nearly identical. If history rhymes: The next leg could be explosive. The leg after that could be devastating. The dot-com bubble didn't collapse because the internet was fake. It collapsed because the prices were. Same lesson. New technology.

@XHARPPP feel it bruh

Best Young Thug song of all time but you aren't allowed to say Check, Best friend, Digits, Halftime, Pick up the phone, Wyclef Jean or Relationship,..

@Jake__Wujastyk go look at volume you idiot 🤣

I think we have a melt up to $760 $SPY into July. Yes, some shallow pullbacks along the way. Window dressing likely drives this. This is forced buying from financial professionals so that they still have jobs. Many went too heavy cash on that dip & are still underexposed.

@Saishiv17 @KobeissiLetter or things take time, look how long it was screaming before 2008?

@KobeissiLetter LEI has been screaming recession since 2022. Three years of false signals and the S&P doubled. At some point you have to admit the indicator is broken or the post pandemic economy just does not respond to the old playbook.

BREAKING: The ratio of US leading to coincident economic indicators is now down to 0.84, matching the 2008 Financial Crisis low. This comes as the Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell -0.6% MoM in March, posting its 7th monthly decline out of the last 8. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking data, including consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, weekly hours, and initial jobless claims. At the same time, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) measures current economic conditions in real time, such as nonfarm payrolls or personal income, excluding government social security or unemployment payments. This ratio is now on track for its 5th consecutive annual decline, the longest streak on record. In the past, such depressed levels have never occurred outside of a recession. The US economy and the stock market are moving in opposite directions.

It is starting to feel irresponsible not having short exposure to semis. I started buying my first lines of puts today.

Oil went down because of project freedom and now that it’s paused, it’s down more. Niceeeee.

@MarginCall4 @yieldsearcher oof you have no idea how these trades unwind do you, prepare for -10% days in soxx

@yieldsearcher Noone is selling either. Very bullish.

Conversely speaking, this means those who are underweight semis (which I suspect is a big chunk of the institutional investor base) have not chased the rally and are potentially trailing the market even more. One way or another, something has to give.

@MikeZaccardi by the way for all of these levels we were already well into recession in 2008, so do with that information what you will

GS: Overall Debt Levels Are Benign but Credit Card and Subprime Auto Loan Delinquencies Remain Elevated

@financialjuice bruh what greed is at 120/100

Fear & Greed Index: 69/100 - Greed

@thuhkang @thedave2006 It’s all the gambloooors pumping the blow off top

@financialjuice holy shit people fell for fake headline

⚠ BREAKING: Trump: Iran, US mutually agree to pause Project Freedom shipping movement through Strait of Hormuz while blockade stays in full effect.

Wow, that means oil most likely actually going to $200, buy $xom and $oxy, that’s the only play besides long dated puts

@Remzztrades when you lose everything just remember you’re not good at this, there is more to life than trading

Welcome to the Super Cycle, your kids kids will talk about it Make sure you let them know how you were short the entire rally like a dumbass!

@hekyoda lol yeah will always mark top when bears flip

Have the bears flipped bull yet

@rootslashbin no one is perma bears, smart money sees the risks and understands market will correct 40-50% in the next 12-18 months

you all have no idea what is coming. class of 21 and especially class of 25 has been brainwashed into being perma bears who have no idea how fast this industry can grow. we are on the verge of seeing a cycle of 2013/2017 proportions. stocks first, then bitcoin, then crypto.

@SwiftMacro @DeItaone @grok did you not see jolts, there is no hiring, any hiring numbers are fabricated by administration and will be adjusted, just look at consumer spending lol and company earnings that rely on consumer spending

@papiputs @DeItaone @grok You’re listing narratives… I’m looking at prints. PMI 53.6. That’s expansion. Hires just surged by ~655k (released 45 minutes ago) One of the strongest prints on record. That’s not a system rolling over… that’s activity still pushing through.

*US APRIL ISM SERVICES PMI AT 53.6 VS 54.0; EST. 53.7

@SwiftMacro @DeItaone @grok it is in the data…you’re looking at the wrong data. super scalar cash flow is turning negative, consumers aren’t spending and debt is going up. when their stocks start plummeting next quarter do we think they’ll stop capex hmm I wonder

@papiputs @DeItaone @grok “Guarantee” is doing a lot of work here. If it was that obvious, it would already be in the data. And it’s not. That’s usually where the move comes from.

@SwiftMacro @DeItaone @grok it’s not assumption, it’s guarantee lol, you’ll find out soon enough. when you’ve been doing this for as long as I have, you know what’s going to happen. just trying to educate people

@papiputs @DeItaone @grok You’re trading the narrative… not the print. Right now the only thing confirmed is 53.6. Everything else is assumption.

@SwiftMacro @DeItaone @grok you’re going to be down 20% on a slow down and be like BUT THE PMI!!!!

@papiputs @DeItaone “Contraction” at 53.6? That’s not a call… that’s just wrong. Above 50 = expansion, full stop. @Grok where does PMI need to be before it actually signals contraction? Missing high expectations does not equal contraction 🤷