Paradis Labs

YTD returns crossed over 500% today. Despite significant macro sell off due to Iran war. And with no margin. Pretty sure I'm outperforming people that charge $5k+ per year for research and technical signals? Some of the big YTD drivers: > AI supply chain bottlenecks make up the bulk e.g. $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, $TSEM, $IQE, $SOI, $AEHR > $SNDK and Samsung; with rocketing memory prices/supply constraints > Other random momentum trades like $SATL, $SIDU; front running the SpaceX IPO I plan on sharing more of my thought process going forwards like I have this week with some Taiwanese/Space stocks. Still very new to X, but I'm getting more accustomed to sharing my thoughts. Please bear with me! Let me know if you have any questions though, always happy to answer as many as I can. I'm enjoying interacting with you all :) (And no, I do not have any paid discords or signal services, those are all scams. All my ideas and thoughts will be posted right here on @X)

@Realequal_com I'm not an investor in $RDDT either

@ParadisLabs I disagree on $SNAP not being "Undervalued". Your favorite Reddit P/S 22.5 vs Snapchat P/S 1.6 Next earnings will be significantly better than the previous.

My friend bought $SNAP shares last week... And I wanted to $SNAP his phone in half so that he could no longer access his brokerage account. Because for the love of God, Cheap =/= Undervalued: TLDR: Snapchat is a sh1t product. High level notes: 1 > $SNAP's recent Q4 25 "profitability" is a fugazi created by cutting growth investments Which ultimately cut the acquisition tap for older users, while younger ones are going over to TikTok. Resulting in huge declines in its most profitable markets by starving its funnel to save its bottom line. - North American DAUs declined 6% YoY to 94M. All because management cut growth marketing to "buy" profit. - American users generate $10.88 ARPU vs. $1.24 for the RoW. Meaning that $SNAP needs to add ~9 intl users to replace just 1 American lol. A truly catastrophic revenue-mix shift where they need to scale massively just to keep their top line flat. Sounds appealing!!1!!1! 2 > Advertiser growth > revenue growth? Total advertisers grew 28%, but revenue grew only 5%. Cos of an inventory glut from Spotlight and Sponsored Snaps which is crashing prices. eCPMs fell 8% YoY meaning advertisers treat $SNAP as surplus reach, not a primary performance engine. Also, tjeir ad environment has no public comments, meaning every ad impression starts cold compared to the high-engagement ecosystems of TikTok or IG. They've effectively become a price-taker in a market dominated by $META + TikTok. And price-takers are rarely ever good investments imo e.g. oil/gas and agriculture. 3 > Cloud costs 2026 cloud costs guided at $1.65B. Hyperscalers like $GOOGL + $AMZN are passing on 5% - 10% price hikes starting mid-2026 due to memory shortages. And infrastructure cost per DAU is climbing ($0.83 - $0.88) cos of $SNAP's pivot to AI-personalized feeds. In SaaS, growth leads to margin expansion through economies of scale. For $SNAP, the more it integrates compute-heavy AI features, the higher its unit costs become. If eCPMs continue to fall while cloud costs rise, the company's "clear path" to 60% gross margins is a fantasy. 4 > Regulatory black swan The EU Digital Services Act probe (Mar 2026) is a terminal risk. Allegations of grooming, dark patterns and illegal product sales to minors. In the US, the Lemmon v. Snap ruling has stripped the company of immunity r.e. "negligent design" features like Streaks which would obliterate the $SNAP's utility overnight. I have asked nearly 20 people why they still use $SNAP - all said because they didn't want their streaks to vanish.....(touch grass pls). Anyway, the DSA allows for fines of up to 6% of global rev. With over 200 lawsuits pending in the US, the legal liability could exceed $SNAP's current cash reserves of $2.9B, creating a black swan liquidity crisis. Genuinely, the main bull case I see is $SNAP using AI better to cut costs to boost earnings naturally. Doubt they can use AI to make a product that'll compete with IG or TikTok at this point, they're too far gone.

@beauty_oe 素晴らしいニュースです！彼らが全ての注文をきちんとこなすことは非常に重要なので、採用を増やして生産能力を拡大しているのは良いことです。

$AAOI 🌟AAOI、テキサスで新たな不動産を取得し事業拡張へ 👉時間外 2.5%☝️ AIデータセンター向け光トランシーバー需要の拡大を背景に、製造能力を強化。新施設は約21万平方フィート規模で、将来的には投資額最大3億ドル・約500人の雇用創出を見込む。 米国内での生産体制を強化し、増大する需要への対応を図る。

@TomSzczypka Yeah I believe $1B in SBC last year. No idea how they're getting bonuses when the biz is on its knees imo

@ParadisLabs Snap has been stealing money from shareholders via dilution and giving management big bonuses It’s a scam The hot dog thing was cool Only remaining catalyst is getting taken over by someone, but that person would have to fire everyone after the buyout, way too messy

@zakthorpe I posted some Taiwanese stocks last week ish like Nanya/Browave which could be steady compounders. Won't be moonshots though. I kinda like space related companies for that atm on top of AI, like $SATL, $SIDU, $SPIR

@ParadisLabs Very true 🙏🏼 I guess it's more about if there are new opportunities you recommend that haven't yet mooned so hard recently?

@Shrimp_a_Whales "Good product" is just a flat out lie when comparing them to IG/Tik Tok and other platforms that capture user attention like YT and $NFLX

@ParadisLabs Oh snap

@Yolo365247isme @zakthorpe Very very possible, my largest holding rn. I should've added them above - huge order backlog of like $50M + a (unknown) hyperscaler customer to buy their systems

@ParadisLabs @zakthorpe how about $AEHR? 10bil?

@IFailedThankGod Using Q4 25 earnings. And $RDDT is just an infinitely better product than $SNAP lol

@ParadisLabs The arguments of your thesis are not accurate. You probably used AI with outdated data + intentionally ignored positive changes. P.S. With $RDDT you pay 100x more per MAU than $SNAP

@zakthorpe Analysing share price performance will just keep you on the sidelines forever. Market cap is a better indication and I think they could be $40B+ if they execute right + keep the pipeline growing

@ParadisLabs Based on todays prices even after 200%+ gains?

@CPaszkat @Long311203 Look at market cap, not historical share prices. Rn I see them scaling to maybe $40B market cap, so ~4x from here

@ParadisLabs @Long311203 Wow it's had quite a run! Can't still be a buy or what are your thoughts!?

YTD returns crossed over 500% today. Despite significant macro sell off due to Iran war. And with no margin. Pretty sure I'm outperforming people that charge $5k+ per year for research and technical signals? Some of the big YTD drivers: > AI supply chain bottlenecks make up the bulk e.g. $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, $TSEM, $IQE, $SOI, $AEHR > $SNDK and Samsung; with rocketing memory prices/supply constraints > Other random momentum trades like $SATL, $SIDU; front running the SpaceX IPO I plan on sharing more of my thought process going forwards like I have this week with some Taiwanese/Space stocks. Still very new to X, but I'm getting more accustomed to sharing my thoughts. Please bear with me! Let me know if you have any questions though, always happy to answer as many as I can. I'm enjoying interacting with you all :) (And no, I do not have any paid discords or signal services, those are all scams. All my ideas and thoughts will be posted right here on @X)

@mitch_summers Cool insights, thanks! Interesting indeed

Great analysis. If you wanna know how Snap’s doing, I can tell you because I’m a snap show producer. Shows used to generate so much revenue for both producers and snap. They took 50% of top line rev (in line with YT/FB) until 2024 when it went to 70/30. Snap takes 70%. Killer many creators and show producers. They’ve pivoted from shows which used to generate a ton to snap stars with midrolls. Not sure how well those are doing, but the show rev has dropped from 6 figure months (per show) post cut with snap, to let’s just say much much less. Soon, all shows and snap stars will transition from dollars to “crystals” which you can exchange for dollars. This is happening now. From what I hear revenue drops once this happens even further.

@Paul48036761376 @zakthorpe Sk more pure play and dominant incumbent + crazy high scaling capacity vs $MU huge profit metrics and pivot from DRAM into AI memory + US-onshoring Can't go wrong with either really since both are able to produce yield so are basically sold out for the next quarters

@ParadisLabs @zakthorpe Sk > $MU ?

@ChadLikey None of that matters if the numbers don't stack up anymore e.g. DAUs, ARPUs

@ParadisLabs Yet the kids still use it and it still ranks high in App Store and Apple is always promoting the shit out of it

@zakthorpe Probs $25k each in $AAOI, $TSEM, Sk Hynix, $LITE / $COHR

@ParadisLabs 😂 Say your friend had $100k, which holdings would you recommend they allocate in to instead?

@schieleafklint $VPG I feel is already pricing in the next 20 years lol $TSLA humanoid demos still done by humans, true autonomy is miles off and is where the value lies ultimately

@ParadisLabs whats about $VPG and Tesla humanoids? if Elon sticks to schedule *very rare* VPG could rise sooner

It's wayyy too early to be investing in Robotics. Even if they can sprint as fast as Usain Bolt and wield dual MP5K's instead of hands. ETFs like $BOTZ ($3.2B aum) or $ROBO ($280M aum) are just marketing wrappers bloated with legacy industrial firms + startups with no path to profitability. $TER semis revenue rose to $883M on AI compute demand. But its Robotics segment contributed only $89M and cut 400 jobs last yr. Says a lot that leaders in the space need to restructure to account for the hardware lag. Then you've got $ABB spinning off its robotics division since its 12% margin drags down the group’s 18% average. So you know it's serious when the world's largest automation players exit hardware to protect profitability. ​Humanoid ASPs remain at $200k+, while mass utility requires a drop to $50k-$75k - a target projected for 2050...not this decade, let alone 2026. ​AI infrastructure spend is crowding out the capex needed for a robotics boom. It's pretty obvious that the alpha rn lies in the AI supply chain, not Robotics and well-marketed ETFs.

@jskerner H2 2026 to Softbank siliconrepublic.com/business/softb…

@ParadisLabs When is that $abb spin off please?

$SPIR ticking up nicely, now up 18% from my original post. Debt-free, loads of cash, and partner w/ $NVDA on rapid weather forecasting models. Front-running the SpaceX IPO with space related names like $SPIR, $SIDU, $SATL (didn't originally post about the last two as a bit more speculative) I like to sometimes trade smaller, speculative names to bank some returns in the portfolio. Other small names like $IQE / $AEHR are longer term holds given how hot the broader AI sector is rn, as we all know. Space is inherently more speculative/risky.

@cryptogal928 A couple years will still be too soon. Like most hardware, you need mass adoption for these companies to start seeing any sort of meaningful robotics earnings come in

@ParadisLabs Probably sth to rotate to a couple years later