Phil Brown Weather

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Phil Brown Weather

Phil Brown Weather

@pbweather

Commodity Trading Meteorologist, BSc Meteorology Uni Reading, UKMet, Met Eireann, Private sector. Expertise in medium to long term weather forecasts and climate

London, England Katılım Ocak 2011
236 Takip Edilen381 Takipçiler
Phil Brown Weather retweetledi
Paul Roundy
Paul Roundy@PaulRoundy1·
I think there are several more serious problems than climate change. Although poverty in the developing world is shrinking considerably, I still see that as the biggest threat to the human condition. It's not even close--and solving the poverty problem also largely solves the climate problem, in terms of impacts on society, because although raising the world out of poverty will actually make climate change worse, the people will become far more resilient to it. And more resilient people also are more likely to establish and support more resilient ecosystems. And the biggest problem in ecosystems is overhunting and overfishing. Societies are are wealthier are more likely to better manage their natural areas. So, I see it as a broad win to both nature and society to prioritize things that bring the world out of poverty above any other objective.
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Phil Brown Weather
Phil Brown Weather@pbweather·
@PaulRoundy1 @US_Stormwatch @LizHighleyman Sierra snow is not as reliable as other locations. When it snows it dumps. But long dry periods also occur. I was supposed to work the ski season in 1989/90 and there was little snow until late Jan. Same thing happened the following year.
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Paul Roundy
Paul Roundy@PaulRoundy1·
@US_Stormwatch @LizHighleyman Early spring Heatwave driven by a large scale weather pattern ironically Amplified by a heavy rainstorm in the vicinity of hawaii.
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Phil Brown Weather
Phil Brown Weather@pbweather·
@PaulRoundy1 @wxclimai I was just thinking this. The 1997 super Nino was extreme, but only lasted 18 months then was followed by an exceptionally strong long lasting la nina period mid 1998 through 2001.
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Paul Roundy
Paul Roundy@PaulRoundy1·
@wxclimai I expect it will clear out the accumulated warm water volume and leave the oceans deficient relative to the longterm trend, potentially leading to a cool period like 1999-2013.
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Paul Roundy
Paul Roundy@PaulRoundy1·
ECMWF projects what could be one of the strongest and meridionally and zonally broadest MJO-associated westerly wind events of a century.
Eric Blake 🌀@EricBlake12

@PaulRoundy1 @BigJoeBastardi So what will be the other effects since it is centered so far north of the equator ? Also that pattern isn’t changing much- returns week 2 closer to the equator

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Phil Brown Weather retweetledi
Andrew Neil
Andrew Neil@afneil·
What is the global price of gas? Is it NBP or Henry Hub? When you discover the answer you will also discover there is no global gas price, unlike oil. Also, the more oil/gas we extract ourselves, the better for our balance of payments = able to run economy at faster rate. Also, the better for government revenues = more public spending or tax cuts. Also, creates more high-paid jobs = more tax revenues. Also, extracting oil/gas from North Sea a lot cheaper than shipping in from abroad. Also, a lot fewer emissions. Now, what is about the benefits of more North Sea drilling you still don’t understand? If still puzzled just ask the Norwegians, who are fellow social democrats but unlike Starmer-Reeves-Miliband Labour have a firm grasp of energy economics.
John Ruddy@jruddy99

It doesn't matter where the gas we buy has been drilled. The UK North Sea, the Norwegian North Sea, Denmark or Qatar. We pay the global market price.

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Phil Brown Weather
Phil Brown Weather@pbweather·
@PaulRoundy1 @BGatesIsaPyscho This is true, although the cirrus clouds can lower the daytime max temperature due to reflected incoming solar radiation. This is fine on a hot summer's day but not so much for cooler seasons.
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Paul Roundy
Paul Roundy@PaulRoundy1·
Those really are just contrail clouds from the exhaust plumes of regular airplanes. They don't cool the planet, because they return more longwave radiation back to the earth than the sunlight they reflect to space. It's NOT an obvious conspiracy, it's just a sign of your ignorance.
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Concerned Citizen
Concerned Citizen@BGatesIsaPyscho·
One of the craziest conspiracies out there is that - ‘they’ are blocking out the Sun, is also by far the most obvious Conspiracy. You can all see it.
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Phil Brown Weather
Phil Brown Weather@pbweather·
@lee_sifford He's playing a different role. He was our only source of goals by running his socks off, coming inside onto his left foot. Now he is staying out wide providing crosses for others to score.
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Lee Sifford ⚒
Lee Sifford ⚒@lee_sifford·
WTF is wrong with Bowen lately? Having an absolute mare
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Phil Brown Weather retweetledi
Melaine Le Roy
Melaine Le Roy@subfossilguy·
21.1°C in Chamonix today! 🔥🥵 A monthly record for February since at least 1880! 🌡️ Words truly fail to describe such early heatwaves, which are so out of season and detrimental to ecosystems. Map via @SergeZaka
Melaine Le Roy tweet media
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(((Izzo Zwiren)))
(((Izzo Zwiren)))@IZwiren·
@CatanUniverse help! I have been stuck in a rejoin loop for three days. I have signed out, deleted and reinstalled the app, tried logging in on a browser, tried starting a new game (I was too slow). What do I do?
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Phil Brown Weather
Phil Brown Weather@pbweather·
@mwt2008 @afneil Again you overlooked the rest of the price stack which also increased post ukraine. Why? Increased subsidies, taxes and grid build out and balancing costs. Not all down to the gas price.
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Mark W Tebbutt
Mark W Tebbutt@mwt2008·
@pbweather @afneil Even after the spike, wholesale costs (dark blue) remain materially higher than pre-2021 levels. The crisis wasn’t a blip. It reset the baseline. Ofgem’s own breakdown shows the wholesale component surged and remains structurally above 2020 levels.
Mark W Tebbutt tweet media
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Andrew Neil
Andrew Neil@afneil·
Wholesale electricity prices back roughly to where they were in 2019, pre-pandemic, pre-Ukraine. But energy bills never higher. Why? Simples: government policies, pursued by previous Tory governments and the current Labour one, which has doubled down on Tory nonsense. Such as carbon taxes, massive subsidies for renewables, billions to upgrade grid to accommodate said renewables etc etc.
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Phil Brown Weather
Phil Brown Weather@pbweather·
@mwt2008 @afneil This includes the ukraine gas spike so is invalid. My graph shows the 6 monthly contributions outside of the Ukraine influence and this shows the wholesale price contribution is on a par or less than the rest of the price stack.
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Mark W Tebbutt
Mark W Tebbutt@mwt2008·
@pbweather @afneil They increased but not as much as wholesale costs due to gas being the marginal price setter. ⬇️
Mark W Tebbutt tweet media
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Phil Brown Weather
Phil Brown Weather@pbweather·
@PolitlcsUK Here's wacky idea. Instead of paying to give the chagos away, we sell it to the Americans, make some money and any real or fictional legal issues get transferred with the sale.
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Politics UK
Politics UK@PolitlcsUK·
🚨 BREAKING: The Government will still proceed with the Chagos Islands deal despite Donald Trump's comments "The deal to secure the joint UK-US military base on Diego Garcia military is crucial to the security of the UK and our key allies, and to keeping the British people safe. The agreement we have reached is the only way to guarantee the long-term future of this vital military base"
Politics UK@PolitlcsUK

🚨 BREAKING: Donald Trump has backtracked on the Chagos Islands deal "DO NOT GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA!"

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Dazza
Dazza@DLM66014·
@pbweather @Markle2k @hausfath @mattwridley No its not Phil. New Zealand monitors methane emissions from agriculture which is also validated by atmospheric measurements by NIWA since 1989. The vast majority of our cattle and sheep are farmed on open grassed paddocks. Agriculture accounts for 70% of NZ methane emissions
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Phil Brown Weather
Phil Brown Weather@pbweather·
@mwt2008 @afneil Nonsense. Data from ofgem show the wholesale price consistently makes up only 30-40% of the retail prices apart from a freak spike when russian gas pipelines were blown up. The greatest and increasing cost is policy, subsidy and network costs.
Phil Brown Weather tweet media
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Andrew Neil
Andrew Neil@afneil·
But would be a lot cheaper. The grid was built to take reliable despatchable power, which renewables are not. Upgrading it to continue with reliable despatchable power a lot cheaper than reconfiguring for renewables.
sgoldswo@sgoldswo

@afneil The upgrade of the grid would be required even if we built new gas

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Phil Brown Weather
Phil Brown Weather@pbweather·
@DLM66014 @Markle2k @hausfath @mattwridley Most scarey studies that monitor CH4 from cows are done on intensive non grass fed factory farmed cows. These are then used as fact on all cows including grass fed free roaming cows that use land that is often not useful for other agriculture.
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Mejerchold
Mejerchold@n_grafoman·
@pbweather @hausfath @mattwridley You're confusing uncertainty and unknowability. You can be uncertain about the value of the parameter, but you can still pin it down to a fairly narrow range. That doesn't mean you don't know what the value is at all.
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Markle2k
Markle2k@Markle2k·
@pbweather @hausfath @mattwridley That model is based on known physics and a lot of knowns in retrodiction You use the term "model" as if it should be feared And, again, methane emissions from farm ruminants has been *measured*
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