peace

After four hours analysing the Federal Budget, here’s my conclusion: this wasn’t bold reform, it was a cash grab wrapped in political packaging. But overall? Australia needed courage, productivity reform, and leadership. Instead, we got an F with a capital F. #federalbudget

@MurrayWatt Would you comment on this

While we’re delivering a Budget of reform and resilience, the Liberals are reaching back 30 years to bring back Fightback, which wanted to completely cut Medicare.

Despite all the spin, Labor’s latest budget tax grab will mean higher rents, fewer homes, and an even tougher path into housing for young Australians. Deep down, they know it too.

The Henry review in fact recommended (see 14 👇) a “40% savings income discount” on capital gains. A far cry from what was in the budget last night.

35,000 fewer homes is the result of the new taxes - source: Jim Chalmers’ budget papers

This Budget condemns younger Australians to wage servitude. Punishing new taxes on investment: shares, ETFs, crypto, property, funds, startups. Income taxes stay high + grow. Older generations keep their realised gains & grandfathered in. No ‘intergenerational equity’ here.

This wasn’t a wealth-building budget for Australians. It was a redistribution and revenue-seeking budget delivered into an economy already struggling with: weak productivity, high living costs, rising debt servicing obligations and declining housing affordability. Instead of expanding the conditions that help Australians build capital, start businesses, invest and own productive assets, labors direction appears increasingly focused on redistribution and expanding the government’s revenue base.

@samstrades If government wants to fix housing they have many tools to do so but the budget changes had nothing to do with housing and was just a envy tax

The housing Ponzi scheme is unprecedented for $WBC to be dealing 15 year interest only investor home loans Even Ireland and USA didn't such subprime crap on their books during their housing crashes, truly insane stuff happening and all allowed by the banking regulator #ausbiz #RBA

@QuentinDempster Would you loke to comment on this

US citizens Rupert/Lachlan Murdoch go full smear on Australian Treasurer Chalmers’s justified corrective to our country’s distorted property market. Housing unaffordability had to be confronted. But the Murdochs’ propaganda rags call this a “communist manifesto”. Pathetic.

There's a social contract in Australian society, which accepts that capital will be taxed at lower rates than labour, on the idea that letting good capitalists keep more of their income will help drive general prosperity. Lots of venture capitalist types forgetting that recently.

The Prime Minister’s broken promises on negative gearing and capital gains tax shockingly delivers 35,000 fewer homes, and betrays every Australian.

Paying more tax doesn't help anyone. #auspol #budget

Vote Labor this November and you’re voting for a continuation of this precipitous decline. Victoria to tap money markets for more than $100bn theaustralian.com.au/nation/victori…

Australians get smashed with the highest pay as you go tax system in the west and now have the highest capital gains tax. Great stuff.

@Dee_Ryall @AlboMP They hate everyone

Over 65s need ⬆️ healthcare, have ⬆️ chronic diseases and are more likely to land in hospital. So @AlboMP takes their last scrimped and saved for health insurance, and pushes them onto Vic’s crumbling health system where waiting lists have blown out. #dumbanddumber

I don't understand why you would make private health cover more expensive for people over 65, surely we don't want to increase demand on public hospitals

IS OUR BUDGET 2026 - THE GRAND CHINA REHEARSAL 2.0? On face value, the latest Australian Labor Party’s housing agenda appears to be borrowing from the same philosophy pushed a few years ago by Xi Jinping: “Property is for living in, not speculation.” However, there’s one massive problem with the comparison. China has: * No migration pressures * Massive housing over-supply & building capacity In depth, China controls “building material supply” & has “cheap labour.” Australia on the other hand has: * Record migration pressure (intake - which the gov does not want to address) * Chronic housing undersupply * Rising construction costs * Builder insolvencies * Delayed project delivery So, what exactly happens if gov-policy pressures “encourage” investors to exit the market? The assumption seems to be: * Investors sell * Prices fall * First Home Buyers suddenly flood in Let’s now ask the uncomfortable questions which are swept under the rug. · Can aspiring FHBs actually afford the properties likely to hit the market? · Are these homes in locations "aspiring buyers" want to live in? · What condition will many of these properties be in after years of deferred maintenance? · If prices DO materially fall (to levels predicted by some) - how keen will banks really be with lending? History tells us: When markets weaken, credit tightens. And without credit “affordability” means very little. Need we look further than what is being played out in Melbourne as, this IMO is the petri dish or litmus test? Meanwhile, the government’s answer appears to be. Push investors toward NEW developments. However, new development come with their own issues & here’s the catch: • Construction costs remain elevated • Insolvencies in the construction sector continue rising • Delivery risk is enormous for off-the-plan buyers • Red tape continues choking timelines In essence, investors are effectively being told to - “buy high-risk, delayed-delivery stock with uncertain upside.” And many of these projects are: * High-rise apartments * Fringe developments * Infrastructure-lagged precincts As is in the case in Melbourne – no go zones for many banks. Yet, long-term demand in Australia still overwhelmingly favours, free-standing homes in established suburbs. THAT is where I believe the real pressure point emerges once the dust settles. Because while headlines scream “property crash” - the long-term shortage of quality established housing will intensify. POSSIBLE SCENARIOS • Investors stop upgrading rental stock (as they see no further gain) • Rents rise harder due to constrained supply (even the NEW is 5-7 years away) • “FOBKO” (Fear Of Being Kicked Out) becomes a renter’s reality (trapped nightmare) • Families hold & pass on property instead of selling out • Established homes become even more tightly held And perhaps most dangerously: Generational resentment is weaponised. Young Australians are being encouraged to believe that the “Boomers took it all.” And in return cheered on what is now about to hit broadly across ALL asset classes. Unfortunately, their resentment has given the government a “free pass” in the fog of confusion being created. Without recognising that removing investment incentives has now also weakened: • Equity markets • Small business confidence • Broader investment appetite Which in broader terms have been vehicles used to create wealth to stump up a deposit for the “great Australian dream.” THE BIG QUESTION: Has the Budget solved affordability, or simply shifted the pressure points elsewhere? Markets are ecosystems. When policy interferes with supply, confidence, credit, and investment incentives all at once - unintended consequences usually follow. Martin @DFA_Analyst and I, have begun to unpack this on the Monday Evening Property Rants. The question is no longer just - “will prices fall?” The bigger questions are: 1) What becomes MORE valuable once the dust settles? & 2) What type of property & what areas are impacted the most…? FINAL THOUGHT (as mentioned on the show) * To solve the current "property ownership affordability" & "rental crisis" which has morphed into FOBKO. You cannot DISMISS from the equation: 1) Immigration policy (demand) 2) Cost of construction (supply) Listen to the rant as we raised these issues on Monday evening: youtu.be/KMZWvmy18Ac?si…

@Silverback_MD If only someone can find a cure for stupidity

lol My mates and I are doctors in our 20s/30s/40s starting off our careers. Absolutely everyone is gobsmacked at the budget changes. Genuinely feels like our generation will get punished for working smart or hard. None of us own investment properties yet - what’s the point now? How do we get ahead now? What was the financial incentive to sacrifice our 20s to train? It feels like all the worst aspects of communism with none of the benefits….. No incentivised housing/travel/childcare for doctors No one in my group is having kids Yet our alcoholic patients are on their 4th or 5th - supported via government programs What a joke Speedrunning civilisational demise

@Silverback_MD 💯