crispy

6/ People worry about an AI bubble. But as a pure thought experiment: what if some company — say @Meta, just as an example — actually won the AI race and became a near-monopoly, the @NVIDIA of today but for models? What kind of world would we wake up in?

5/ As Moore’s Law stalls and architectures/compilers converge, the real edge might shift from clever hardware tricks to how fast you can understand new models and turn that into production systems.

4/ eye-watering, headline-grabbing package we just saw in @Meta’s ultra-high-comp AI hires, paid to chase the dominant AI platform’s requirements.

3/ In that timeline, the kind of end-to-end optimization we see from @Meta and @OpenAI today might shift onto chip vendors. Maybe projects like Triton never even get started; instead, the roles flip — some super chip engineer at a GPU vendor could end up with the same kind of ...

2/ But imagine a “Three Kingdoms” world where @NVIDIA, @Intel, and @AMD all ship similar datacenter chips and supply is much looser. Optimizing for any one vendor only gives you ~1/3 of the benefit, so companies like @Meta or @OpenAI would behave very differently.

Random daydream from a chip engineer: 1/ Right now @NVIDIA is close to a monopoly, and it’s genuinely hard to even get these chips in volume. For a company like @Meta, squeezing just 1% more utilization out of 1M NVIDIA GPUs is basically like getting 10k extra cards for free

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