Paperhand 🔥

@AcquiredFM I remember asking my late great grandmother what the great depression was like. She said she couldn’t really tell a difference. They were already poor, living in a single bedroom apartment with her parents. In fact, the lower prices helped. Never cared about stocks.

It's incredible that just ~2% of Americans owned any stocks in 1929. Equity ownership is... a pretty recent phenomenon.

@SenLummis Bot

The Clarity Act draws a clear line between digital assets that are securities and those that are commodities. We've needed that line for a decade.

@SenLummis 🤡

Other nations are accumulating Bitcoin quietly. We should be doing it loudly, on the record, by law.

@SenLummis @SpecialSitsNews You have nothing better to do than to use the office to grease your own palms

The Clarity Act passed committee. The floor is next. We did not come this far to quit at the 5 yard line.

@FantasyF_Chris Is that at yesterday’s price or today’s? Because it’s down more than 10% today. That’s worse than $MSTR.

@philnick567 I’m up $2.5m and they are durable. As of right now you sound like a buffoon. Of course pullbacks happen. Look at the chart 20-30% drawdowns happen. Your name suits you. Paper hands

Micron ($MU) has ripped over 1000% in little over a year and now trades around ~50x earnings. That kind of move has historically shown where expectations get ahead of fundamentals. If sentiment shifts and multiples normalize, a 50% drawdown isn’t unrealistic.

One day later the stock drops 10%

@FantasyF_Chris Forward P/E is only cheap if the earnings are sustainable. You’re using peak cycle guidance to justify today’s price. The question isn’t the forward p/e, it’s whether those earnings still exist in 2 years. As of right now, the price is unsustainable at 50x p/e.

@philnick567 This quarter they are making 20 with guidance.. kind of lazy analysis to not mention fwd pe is less than 10

It looks more like bitcoin is making a head and shoulders pattern. Forming the right shoulder currently before a break down from the neckline.

#CNBC said gold has topped and forming a head and shoulders pattern. I think it looks more like a bullish pennant.

@Ryan_Shea_1 @BTCtreasuries @PunterJeff Insurance fails both Ponzi criteria. New policyholders aren’t needed to pay old claims. Reserves are pre-funded and legally mandated and insurers don’t absorb risk, it’s spread across the policyholder pool. Jeff’s best MSTR defense is an analogy that falls apart on inspection.

@philnick567 @BTCtreasuries @PunterJeff No, it wouldn’t. Jeff wasn’t saying that insurance was a Ponzi scheme. He was making the point that under coffees definition of Ponzi, insurance also has to be a ponzi.

JUST IN: Strive's Jeff Walton (@PunterJeff) responds to Coffeezilla calling $STRC a Ponzi scheme. "The difference between a Ponzi scheme and a capital management vehicle is that a Ponzi scheme doesn't have reserves. A capital management vehicle does." "Almost 100% of insurance claims paid out are funded by premiums they collect. Does that make an insurance company a Ponzi scheme?"

@BitcoinNewsCom So the flow is really: premium comes in → invested immediately → reserve is maintained as a liability → claim hits → paid from reserve → reserve replenished by ongoing premiums. The cash is never just sitting idle waiting to pay your claim. It’s always deployed.

“Is an insurance company a Ponzi scheme?” Watch Jeff Walton put Coffeezilla’s brain in a pretzel.

@BTCsponge @benschmidtbtc Just because you work in insurance doesn’t mean you understand it. The first thing they teach you when studying for licensing is how insurance companies pool and transfer risk. The insurer prices the pool so that the risk stays with the policyholders, not on their own books.

@philnick567 @benschmidtbtc He literally worked for years in insurance lmao he understands it perfectly well

My favourite moment of the conversation. Coffeezilla stopping to think, maybe I don’t understand what an insurance company is selling

@CrunchyDischarg @investingtutor @PunterJeff @coffeebreak_YT Yes just Interchange bitcoin with MSTR and you get the same thing

@philnick567 @investingtutor @PunterJeff @coffeebreak_YT I thought the argument was about $MSTR? Bitcoin is just asset. $MSTR has a balance sheet.

Watching @PunterJeff roast @coffeebreak_YT made my day 😂

@Dont_B_A_Dave @investingtutor @PunterJeff @coffeebreak_YT In insurance, the policyholder is transferring idiosyncratic risk into a pooled system. The insurer isn’t actually taking on each individual risk in isolation, they’re structuring a pool where those risks are shared across many policyholders.

Insurers “guess” what the cost of the risk they are taking on will be. They do not k ow the future cost of this risk. Just as MSTR does not know what the future return on their asset will be. They are slightly different from one another but are both based on the thesis that they will make a profit based on how accurate they can be at predicting the future.

@CrunchyDischarg @investingtutor @PunterJeff @coffeebreak_YT he’s defending Bitcoin by comparing it to something he implies is also kind of a Ponzi structure, instead of arguing Bitcoin is sound on its own merits. So instead of proving Bitcoin is solid, he’s basically saying “other questionable systems exist, so this one should pass too.”

@philnick567 @investingtutor @PunterJeff @coffeebreak_YT Their liabilities are diversified across a ton of policies, each of which can essentially be treated as an independent random variable. $MSTR's liabilities are a function of the price of a single asset, a single random variable. Surprised Jeff made this terrible comparison TBH.

@NotA_Bull 10b5-1 sale

Jamie Dimon sold 130,488 shares at an average price of roughly $306.56, totaling $40 million. Fellow investors, why is Jamie Dimon selling $40M worth of $JPM stock? Thoughts?