@SwannMarcus89 the head nurse ins season 2 is the worst, writers stuff her w moralistic and explaning high ground bs within her dialogue al the time
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Just curious
10.7K posts
The Pitt is hilarious. In season 1, the main characters commit like 70 federal crimes and the writers want me to think hospital administration is unnecessarily intrusive for not letting the cabal of felons running their emergency department do whatever the fuck they want
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@BarclayCard18 2013 murray was peak, most aggressive and legit competition- 2016 would get blown off court just because went for uber consistency
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If you dropped 2016 Andy Murray on to the 2026 ATP Tour, how do you reckon he'd do?
Obviously in my ridiculously unbiased opinion, he'd win all 4 majors and be undefeated year round. 😤
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@PEoperator @rorysutherland lead w conclusion first almost a tldr approach too if u must explain something, also comm outcomes and actions don’t explain and drive more cognitive load to your peers/boss in email…
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You are still underrating the value of speed.
It sends a strong signal but it also allows for less overall energy expenditure.
Every minute you wait raises the expectation of a thorough response.
Very @rorysutherland concept!
Wealth M&A Insider@wealthMAinsider
“If you respond to an email in 1 min, the replay needs only to be 2 words, and I’m impressed”
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@DiscountedTr i think every valu investor fits that since they lecture ppl and associate some bs morality about investing in richer values cos - it exposes them clearly in not understanding business fundamentals
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@thefedexpresss thiem had a winning record v roger, sort of solved him, and was a consistent tough out v novak and rafa - he played right at their level. he’s my fav player but where he dropped was a lot of losses that shouldn’t happen at tournies imo.
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Why do I always see Thiem as the biggest what if? Was his career cut short? Yes of course, but cmon.
Also, Soderling is a much bigger what if over Thiem.
Soderling makes b2b French open finals in 09-10, gets to a career high #4 in 2010, and is finished in 2011, at age 27..
thefedexpress@thefedexpresss
If Del Potro isn’t your biggest tennis ‘what if,’ you don’t know ball. He missed 11 of 24 possible majors from 2013-18 (age 25-30) Delpotro only played 37 total majors, to put that into perspective, Zverev has already played more at age 28 We missed out on a legendary player
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@prophetspoison federer got to 2 gs finals in 15, won 2 on 17, 1 in 2018, and got to i think 2 gs finals in 2019. not a fed only fan but his 2017 year was prob the best of his career given how he weaponized his ohbh
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@PEoperator pe adds no value, the goal is for rapid gp enrichment - lp provide 8pct financing via pref return. using debt when incentive is off irr ensures relatively short time horizons. gp uses opm and has all the upside hence max lev and cf r the main goals
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As usual, PE has it all figured out…
“most management teams (and boards with limited equity) don't really want that discipline”
We are all so lucky PE exists to install discipline because the rest of us would otherwise just run amuck.
If only Apple had access to a great financial mind like a PE MD, maybe they could create real shareholder value…
But in reality, adding debt does create risk. It means there can be more reward, but it also creates downside.
Just because there is a portfolio of companies with debt doesn’t mean the risk is gone or even sufficiently mitigated… that’s exactly what people thought before the GFC.
PE has a place and can create value, but get real.
John Caple@BigJohn043
Finance 101 says that when looking at returns they need to be on a risk adjusted basis. I agree 100%. It is also true to PE uses more leverage in their companies that the public markets. But does that mean that investments in PE are "riskier". It is true that if you look at a single company then the addition of leverage both increases returns to equity and increases the risk. But across a portfolio you have to think of it differently. Very few portcos are going to default and on average across a portfolio that leverage will lead to higher returns. So across portfolio of funds I am not sure it leads to higher risk overall. In fact, I would argue that most public companies are under levered. Leverage brings discipline and most management teams (and boards with limited equity) don't really want that discipline. If would argue that lack of leverage is just one of the costs of poor governance you get when investing in public companies. Look at Apple. The business has $145B of EBITDA, $132B of cash and $90B of Debt. The business is very stable. Even at 3x of Debt the business could either dividend to shareholders ~$500B that is currently not really earning a return. That is just one of the costs of poor public company governance. And you can't just put debt on a public security in the same way you can a company. When you lever a company you are doing it against the cash flows of the business. When you do it against a security you are leveraging the market value. If that security trades down you face margin calls and have to sell part of your position. For that matter you conceptually have to sell part to pay interest as well. It is actually more risky. But maybe we should look at real world data. It is hard to measure PE returns on a short term basis. But over longer terms they are reasonably accurate. Hamilton Lane looked at 5 years returns in a variety of asset classes. The worst 5 year return periods for public equities are significantly worse than PE. So if the real risk is losing money then you would argue public companies are actually riskier. I think there are real differences in the marking process so I am not sure that is true but at a minimum it isn't clear that PE is somehow riskier....
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@DiscountedTr valeant also target and jcp, but has incredibly dumb lp (most r) where tgt was a sep multi b fund with just options that cratered so didn’t impact his fund tr
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@TheTennisLetter he’s amazing, his backhand needs work though, too short a swing to impart the rpm he wants as well as pace. it’s a deflection shot against big players and he can’t open angles on either wing, that’s the most glaring issue - he hits well but can’t open the court against sincaraZ
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Alex de Minaur says he was playing out of his comfort zone and out of his skin against Carlos Alcaraz, ‘Jannik & Carlos have so many revolutions on the ball that they’re able to not only play at a higher speed, but also have that consistency’
“In terms of mentality or the way I committed to hitting the ball today, it’s what I set out to do.. I just can’t really execute it. I didn’t really execute it for the whole match. Overall I’m playing out of my comfort zone and at times out of my skin. In order for me to take that next step, I’ve got to be comfortable playing that sort of way for the whole match. That’s what it takes to take it to the next level, especially against these types of guys.”
“Some tweaks here and there, that’s gonna allow me to increase ball speed. At the moment the way my natural groundstrokes are… they’re quite flat. It’s quite difficult for me… there’s a whole lot of risk for me to play at a very high ball speed.. I feel like someone in my, in this case Jannik & Carlos.. they’ve got so many revolutions on the ball that they’re able to not only play at a higher speed, but also have that consistency. They’re able to get that spin that helps the ball come down and create different angles as well. That’s stuff I need to look at and see and try to work at. But it is what it is.”
(via Australian Open Press)
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@dcfdude @junkbondinvest keeping my job in the endowment too through unnecessary complexity - pe and zombie lp interests gotta be managed and kept up on.
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@junkbondinvest It just depends on your goals. If your goals are long-term compounding, then index funds work. If your goals are wealth transfer to asset manager GPs, then the endowment model works.
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The Yale endowment model in 2025:
> Yale 3-year return: 6.2%
> Princeton: 4.3%
> Simple 70/30 portfolio: beat both
> College of New Jersey with ZERO PE: 11.5%
Turns out index funds work.
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@vanshv2k his game has not changed. he’s got a big FH, med bh, mediocre movement, no net game, and avg serve - got far a few years ago but rest of field caught up
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8 straight majors where Rublev (formerly Mr. QF guy) hasn’t made it. He made QFs at 6/7 majors he played from 2022 RG - 2024 AO. Since that AO R4 win Rublev had vs De Minaur 2 years ago, Alex has taken over Andrey’s mantle of Mr. QF guy in majors. They’ve traded places basically.
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@PEoperator LPs r the pref equity regardless and it would favor sponsors since bad deals would not negatively impact their good ones. This is what kkr did in its early days, funds r the institutional std.
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What if instead of raising funds to then go buy companies, private equity had to raise funds for each specific deal?
This makes them more like an independent sponsor.
What would that actually do to the industry?
It would definitely slow things down and it increases company-specific risk for LPs, but it could also increase transparency.
Thoughts?
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@DREAMERSjoinus AI is not going to be stopped and it’s awesome u r using it in your music composition. hope u get on tour and to the east coast.
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@Djoko_UTD thiem was my all time fav player w that ohbh, may need to follow aleksander now esp after this
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@christianscourt need to fire johnny mac , every, and pmac, be like nfl and get players who can speak more about today’s game.
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after not being included in ESPN's AO '26 commentator lineup it appears Pam Shriver and Brad Gilbert will no longer be working with the broadcast company based on recent tweets.
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@junkbondinvest U mean pizza as a service, now its not 5x Lev we have 12x
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PE firms this year:
Can't find good software deals (AI disruption)
Can't invest in healthcare (regulatory nightmare)
Can't do industrials (tariffs)
What's left?
Pizza. Always pizza.
$PZZA
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@LeylaKuni calpers dd will be similar to retail if not worse
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I'm on the receiving end of the sales pitches from major asset managers - and here's my side of the story, lol:
We (retail) are BOMBARDED with private credit offerings
We are sold on the safety, the low default rates, the high diversification. "Oh, and did we mention double-digit yield?"
The sales machine is well-funded, and is clearly working: after all, a CALPERS might ask some questions, but a surgeon from Chattanooga, TN will simply write a check.
junkbondinvestor@junkbondinvest
Retail investors added $100B to private credit funds over the past year, bringing the total to $213B. Meanwhile BCRED cut its dividend 9%. Major bankruptcies showing hidden exposures. Apollo, Ares, Blue Owl stocks all down. The money comes in right as the problems show up. Every single time.
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@FT it could lol..ft at 900 a year is getting worse. what’s next howard marks saying to be cautious for the 542995001585th time? 3-4 years ago ft would have done a big read on factoring and the actual ins and outs of this vs trot out the 24/7 cynics (chanos is amazing no issue w him)
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Jim Chanos, one of Wall Street’s best-known short sellers, has sounded the alarm on the private debt boom, telling the Financial Times that First Brands Group’s chaotic bankruptcy could augur a wave of corporate collapses. on.ft.com/4nXC4LZ
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@SilbergleitJr u just mention stats wo context, how does that loan pool compare to other used car origination pools? what are the economic tie ins to cvna, does it have to retain all exposure?
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You don't need a degree in finance to understand that Carvana stock price is a debacle waiting to happen.
I peaked at Morningstar's Report of Carvana Auto Receivables Trust 2024-N3.
Auto Receivables Trust is simply an asset-backed security, that pays some returns. You can think of it as a bond backed by packaged auto loans, analogous to mortgage backed securities. Big financial institutions buy these as they tend to have a higher yield.
Carvana issues two types of these packaged products, one is P backed by prime loans (I'll review them after), while N is backed by non-prime loans (reviewing them now).
Looking at N (non-prime) tranches, over the past years, I saw the following:
- average car loan is $23,000
- average interest on these loans is 21% (basically like credit card interest)
- average loan term is 72 months (6 years)
- 0% of the loans are for new vehicles
- 100% of the loans are for used vehicles
- average LTV (loan-to-value) is 100.0 (meaning the lender is financing 100% of the car’s value, with no down payment from the buyer)
- average FICO score is 580 (considered poor credit score)
Despite the stock market valuing Carvana ($CVNA) at an $85 billion market cap - higher than established automakers like BMW ($62B), Volkswagen ($60B), General Motors ($58B), Ford ($49B), Hyundai ($39B), and Kia ($28B), all of whom sell far more cars and generate far greater profits - the reality is much simpler:
Carvana is a used-car reseller that sells on average $23,000 vehicles to buyers with poor credit on seven-year loans at 21% interest, often with no down payment.
If that sounds like a business model that should be valued higher than Ford and Hyundai together, then perhaps the stock is worth buying, especially since analysts at JPMorgan and Jefferies are predicting it could reach $425–475 per share.
I'll stick with my $37 price target.
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