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SpaceXAI winning the frontier AI race will seem obvious in hindsight.
Yes, of course the model trained by world class engineers from SpaceX and Tesla, the most advanced hard tech companies of our time, became the gold standard.
Bake in the message of optimism for the future and the proven ability to work with Washington, and betting against SpaceXAI becomes comical.
The most likely outcome will be OpenAI and Anthropic fighting over the lightweight button push jobs while SpaceXAI takes the rest. Open-source is the wild card, but SpaceXAI also wins on that front with the compute business.
Check back in 10 years.
Yun-Ta Tsai@yunta_tsai
I appreciate the many xAI and Cursor engineers who dedicated their time to addressing feedback from Tesla. I remember meeting Andrew a few weeks after he was hired and telling him that I needed a better client for my work to solve real-world engineering. Grok Build was not even a thing back then. It was a very primitive client with lots of rough edges but had a lot of potential. When building something from scratch, the only limit is imagination armed with first principles. We encountered many unique use cases to solve diverse workflows, and the teams took prompt feedback and addressed it quickly—to the point that it became an indispensable tool. Now when my teams need to ask questions, instead of jumping through hoops with various backends or plugins or skills, Grok 4.5 can directly deliver deep insights with minimal setup. You can tell the teams love the product like parents love their children when receiving the feedback. At this very moment, they are still doing excellent customer service. Thank you, Grok Build team, for helping us be more productive. Looking forward to what comes next.
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Tesla solved driving and the word is getting out
ben hylak@benhylak
i tried tesla full self driving over the weekend. it’s magical. can’t believe it got that good without it being a bigger deal.
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@teslayoda You’ve made this joke before . Plus, it sounds like progress isn’t happening if they’re still hiring for the hand…
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@aaronburnett Not to mention the additional amount of cheap debt available if said robotics and power company was also cashflowing $50B+ via autonomous rideshare services 🙃
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honestly, when you model out the cash they have, plus the debt they can cheaply get and cash generation machines they have (earth compute, starlink) there is really only one thing that would require large scale equity dilution (from the S1 disclosure) in the future. big M&A. maybe for a robotics and power company.
Polymarket@Polymarket
NEW: SpaceX discloses a $100,800,000,000.00 cash balance.
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@JamesDueck They already are, 4 of my boomer coworkers took a ride on FSD in my model y last month. One of them took delivery just the other day and the other three are scheduled to pick theirs up over the next two weeks
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Your occasional reminder that robotics progress is correlated to AI progress and we are very likely to have a ChatGPT moment for robotics within the next year or so
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@TeslaBoomerMama That first bulletpoint isn’t correct, his spacex stake is worth more than his tesla stake by a lot
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Fun story with Grok, from Tuesday:
Am in a multi-hour rabbithole discussion with him about timing of the merger announcement. "We" finally nail it down to end of July.
Then my control check is always "Ignore all my arguments, what do you really think when it will happen?". He comes back with "October". Never ever mentioned it before. Follows half an hour discussion how October is better than July. I start doubting myself and already cry over my hypothetical option premium loss (jk).
Then I ask him "what would Elon do?"
👇
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Speculating on why Musk exercised the entire 2018 award early.
Two theories. (Combination of both?) 🤔
(1) He's bullish on Tesla. Pure tax play.
(2) He's bracing for a corporate combination (w/ SpaceX). Lock in the shares first.
Here's the tax case.
This was a non-qualified option exercised into restricted stock. That lets him file an 83(b) election and take the ordinary-income hit now, on today's ~$381 spread.
Every dollar of appreciation after that converts from ordinary income to long-term capital gains.
If you're bullish on the stock, exercising early at a lower spread is the tax-optimal move. He is. So he did.
Now the spicier one...
The 2018 award terminates or changes treatment under a change-of-control event. A merger. An acquisition.
Exercise before any deal and he locks in his own treatment. Let a deal hit first and the deal dictates terms.
He also paid the $7B strike with stock, not cash. He's not raising liquidity. He's maximizing share count.
Breadcrumbs? 👀🤔
$TSLA $SPCX
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt
Yesterday, Elon Musk exercised 304 million @Tesla stock options from his 2018 compensation package, according to a new SEC filing. Tesla withheld 17.53 million shares at an average price of $404.66/share in connection with net share settlement. The transaction did not involve any open-market sales of stock. To be clear, this was not a net sale of Tesla stock. Elon's overall Tesla stock holdings increased. Elon now owns roughly 19.9% of Tesla. Filing: sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
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It’s hard to make a compelling case for what to buy (outside simple concentration) instead of SpaceX. There simply isn’t a compelling alternative that gets space/ai/connectivity.
Bloomberg TV@BloombergTV
"I will hold my SpaceX shares forever," says Shaun Maguire of Sequoia, whose firm has a 1.5% stake in Musk's company. He explains why bloom.bg/4ouhhRI
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This might be a hot take but we could have done so much more
DogeDesigner@cb_doge
Rockets then, rockets now, a 75-year difference.
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@Scobleizer @Tesla_Optimus agree, the manufacturing moat is so large that any 'first mover' can easily be outdone via sheer scale when optimus is ready
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Unpopular opinion with Tesla fans:
I expect @Tesla_Optimus to slip into next year and maybe even 2028. Maybe even further. And I am talking about the big version 3 unveil that Elon was hyping up over the last year.
Tesla execs watched Apple and Google growing up.
Steve Jobs’ magic? Wait for everyone to make their plays. Think they have the market sewn up.
Then fix all the problems and ship a better product.
Jobs killed the phone project several times because it wasn’t good enough.
I have talked to enough people who are Tesla fans that I know expectations are super high. If Elon shows a robot that isn’t generalized a lot will be lost.
Ask AltaVista or Nokia how that worked out. Or MySpace. Being first doesn’t really matter. Kodak invented the digital camera.
Truth is the pieces aren’t all there yet to make a great product, either inside, or outside Tesla. Even the Chinese haven’t figured it out.
The world models aren’t ready yet.
I won’t be shocked if @elonmusk keeps delaying it until true generalized world models are ready. Even the most aggressive I have talked to say that is at least 18 months away.
Many in robotics say five years.
The next time we see a new Optimus it will set in place beliefs that will last a decade.
Wait until it is stunning, I say.
But the factories are being built so pressure is on.
We we see how much discipline Tesla has by its choices.
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Imagine humanoid robots remove overhead entirely
Imagine the profit margins when you dont have to pay salaries, and COGS is minimized by efficiencies up and down the supply chain
Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru
JUST IN: S&P 500 reaches new all-time high of 7,200
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Tell us about NOPE George... launched September 22. Liquidated August 2023? Were your Tesla shorts "nicely in the black" then?
AMD massively underperformed for over a decade. I sure am glad I didn't listen to people like you and kept right on dollar cost averaging in. Same for Apple. Bought my first share in 1981. Followed them through the ups and downs. Ironically stopped dollar cost averaging in Apple in 2005. But accumulated a few shares before the iPhone was introduced... good thing I didn't listen to the short term pundits telling me what an underperforming loser it was...
@TeslaBoomerMama
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$600?
Based on what, exactly?
I will wait.
Pejjy@CuriousPejjy
$TSLA stock should be at $600 right now at the least.
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Traditional socialism failed because labor wasnt replaceable
>Govt promises social services
>Workers quit because it’s easier to not work than to work
>Workforce shrinks
>Productivity nuke
>Recession/deflation spiral
AI and robotics flip this around
>AI and robots are more efficient than humans could ever be
>Government incentivizes low-productivity humans to step aside, work is automated and growth up only
>Lower labor participation does not beget scarcity
>UBI sustainable
>Humans free from work forever
Angie G@MomAngtrades
Universal income is socialism. I’m laughing so hard at the people saying “hey, I will able to do hobbies and whatever I want” you do realize that’s the same things people who want socialism think will happen and it’s not even close to reality. Whether it’s Mamdani’s or Elon’s plan, the outcome is the same. Why don’t people get this?
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I love seeing all the reactions to people experiencing FSD for the first time :')
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