Armchair Warlord@ArmchairW
In making sense of a complex event, it's often best to start with the facts and then work backwards from there. So what are we to make of this weekend in Iran?
My theory is we just saw an attempt to seize Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium unravel.
Down the rabbit hole.⬇️
Let's run through the timeline and the location of key events first:
The evening of April 2nd, the Iranian military released a video of them shooting down a USAF aircraft. This was initially claimed as having occurred over the Persian Gulf, but apparently occurred near Isfahan. Wreckage corresponding to an F-15E of the 494th Tactical Fighter Squadron was recovered from a site south of Isfahan the morning of April 3rd, although geolocation of the very barren crash site took some time (fig. 1).
The afternoon of April 3rd, a number of USAF HH-60s and an HC-130 fueler (!) were spotted operating further south and west in Iran, over Kogiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, as well as at least one A-10, an MQ-9 Reaper, and apparently an F-35. An antiaircraft battle developed and the Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) HH-60s (fig.2) and an A-10 were damaged, with the A-10's pilot ejecting over the Persian Gulf. The HH-60s were reported as "damaged" and one was photographed trailing smoke. Reports emerged at that time that the pilot of the F-15E (which had crashed near Isfahan, although this was then-unclear!) had been rescued, while the WSO remained at large. Provincial authorities in Kohgiluyeh asked civilians to be on the lookout for an American aviator around this time and numerous photos of militia searching for him emerged.
The next day passed relatively uneventfully. The evening of April 4th, however, there was a report of more helicopter activity slightly further north, in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, accompanied by a washed-out photograph of an unknown helicopter flying very low on a very dark night (fig. 3). Later that night news emerged that the F-15Es WSO had been rescued... and that C-130s had been abandoned and scuttled at a forward base in the Isfahan area during the withdrawal of a company-size SOF force that had landed in the area, over 100 operators ostensibly having been sent to rescue one aviator. Photographs that emerged as dawn broke showed two burned-out C-130s and several destroyed MH-6 Little Bird SOF assault helicopters, in a scene reminiscent of the aftermath of Operation Eagle Claw (fig. 4). A USAF C-295 tactical transport was caught on video around that time flying in Iran - presumably outbound - at extremely low altitude.
So, what are we to make of this?
First and foremost, the official story - that a huge direct-action SOF force landed near Isfahan with assault helicopters and heavy transport aircraft to rescue one fugitive airman - is nonsense. Not because the USAF won't go to extreme lengths to recover isolated personnel - it can, will, and did in this case - but because that's an absolutely nonsensical way to accomplish that mission. It's a totally inappropriate force package for a mission to go in, extract a single person from a remote area, and leave. Ergo this SOF task force was there on other business.
So how were the pilots actually recovered? In all likelihood, exactly the way you would expect them to be recovered - by USAF PJs in long-range helicopters, under cover of darkness. The rescue force probably recovered the pilot from the Isfahan area late at night on April 2-3 and were caught in daylight as they exfiltrated, leading to the aforementioned antiaircraft battle the morning of April 3rd and a high-risk refueling over Iranian territory that was filmed by many Iranians on the ground, as well as a shot-down A-10 trying to clear a path for the helicopters to exfiltrate. The WSO was likely recovered from his hide site near Isfahan by HH-60 in a quiet and deliberate operation the night of April 4-5. One or two birds, in and out under cover of darkness - a far cry from the gung-ho stories currently being spun.
So what about the SOF rodeo happening at the same time? Well, why was an F-15 flying downtown to Isfahan the evening of April 2nd to begin with? Probably because there was a huge direct-action raid planned in the Isfahan area for the night of April 4-5, likely going after enriched uranium at an underground facility in the region, and the Iranian air defenses around Isfahan weren't going to suppress themselves. The plan was likely to fly several MH-6 assault birds and a sizable force of operators via C-130 and C-295 to a forward staging area near Isfahan the evening of April 4th, hit a reported cache site or sites for enriched uranium, and try to make it out with the magic dust by daybreak on April 5th.
In any event the USAF wasn't going to send transports somewhere it wouldn't send strike aircraft. So the Air Force cashed its check on claims of air superiority and in went the strike package the evening of April 2nd - and lo and behold one of the F-15Es went down because reports of the demise of the Iranian air defense network had been greatly exaggerated. Any rational planner would have scrubbed the SOF operation at this point because they'd lost control of the situation and the Iranian defenses had proven more effective than planned.
We went ahead anyways and inserted the SOF task force the evening of April 4th. I strongly suspect that this force was immediately discovered by Iranian drones that would have been up and searching for this WSO, because five transport aircraft including at least two C-130s (about what would be required for a bunch of Little Birds and a company-sized element of operators with equipment) landing at a desert airstrip 50km from Isfahan (and in the same general area where the WSO was taking cover) would be pretty God-damn obvious to anything with thermals. Iranian troops immediately deployed and began converging, the task force probably took indirect fire, and the operational commander immediately aborted mission and retreated in the three remaining operational aircraft. Scuttling charges on delayed fuzes burned two C-130s and an unknown number of MH-6s that had been abandoned at the airstrip around dawn.
The story that they were there to rescue the WSO was concocted at that time to cover the disastrously failed raid, as were logistically implausible claims that the task force had been rescued by three additional aircraft after the two C-130s got stuck on the LZ and were scuttled - perhaps to minimize the scale of the effort. Claims that a large battle took place appear to be similarly exaggerated - video has emerged of a single group of Iranian militia apparently killed in a drone strike, but nothing of the nonstop bombing and firefights that were rumored across Telegram all night. I remind the reader that the events of the last few days have proven quite conclusively that Iranians seem to have plenty of internet access to post photos and video when they actually have something worthwhile to film.
I'd like to note that Hegseth fired General George - US Army Chief of Staff - on April 2nd, apparently because he just wasn't a good fit for the job and definitely not because he'd told him that this whole scheme was insane. It seems to me that the good General's advice should have perhaps been heeded.
