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This is The Golden Age of Option Trading ™️
If you have a view, non-recourse leverage is being given away CONSTANTLY.
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Jason Polansky
15K posts
Jason Polansky
@polan13
Nothing posted should be taken as advice.
Oregon, USA Katılım Mayıs 2009
490 Takip Edilen3.8K Takipçiler
The way to have the lowest commodity prices over time is to make sure producers and processors get to keep abnormal and yes, even windfall profits. Certainty that investments will be rewarded by rare moments representing most of the economic profits earned over the life of projects encourages maximal, and potentially even overinvestment (read everyday low prices for consumers).
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Jason Polansky retweetledi
For the first time in history, hyperscalers hold more debt than cash
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Many countries are doing this and will continue to - it is like a financial SPR
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
TURKEY WEIGHS GOLD DEFENSE AS WAR SHAKES MARKETS The Iran war is driving sharp regional volatility, with Turkey preparing measures to protect its currency. Officials say the central bank is considering using its gold reserves, including possible gold-for-FX swaps in London. The move highlights growing pressure on emerging markets as conflict risks escalate.
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Jason Polansky retweetledi
A war that can only be fought when the market is closed brings a whole new meaning to "weekend warriors"
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@Geo_papic Can't wait to hear the pod on the events of the last 48 hours. 🤯
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Agreed. But ALL is doing a lot of work Marko!
Marko Papic@Geo_papic
A new geopolitical equilibrium could emerge in the Middle East that includes almost constant kinetic action and YET markets could be OK with that. The 1980 Iran-Iraq war is a good example of that. All that matters is whether ships go through Hormuz. That's it.
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@TimDuy I think there is a strong chance the admin is thinking precisely this way. Better to keep Powell in the seat and available to blame, for the moment.
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The degree of difficulty isn’t lost on central-bank watchers. “A delay in the Warsh nomination is a gift to Warsh. I don’t envy anyone taking that job now,” said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.
Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraos
The run-up in energy prices is making a very awkward Fed transition even more fraught. This was already complicated. Kevin Warsh's confirmation is stalled by the DOJ probe and the Tillis blockade. Plus, unlike every incoming Fed chair since Volcker, Warsh has promised a sharp break with his predecessor—not continuity. Now markets are pricing rate hikes as just as likely as cuts this year, which could leave Warsh in a bind between the president who selected him and the committee he'll lead. When oil prices surged in 2008 after an interval of aggressive cuts, Warsh argued forcefully that inflation risks "predominate as the greater risk" and suggested the Fed's next move should be to hike. Trump expects the opposite. wsj.com/economy/centra…
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Yeah, this is a problem.
Ben Hunt@EpsilonTheory
This Bessent performance on Meet the Press is a disaster. My god.
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@GavMcCracken Impressive in a horrifically distorting price signals way (in particular in terms of letting the head honcho know how badly this is going).
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It's a joke that WTI is still under $100:
The world's largest oil company ceased all drilling (Aramco).
There's been a massive loss of secondary oil products from gas fields that were disintegrated. This is not a free market & there will be consequences due to this suppression
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Jason Polansky retweetledi
Jason Polansky retweetledi
NEW: The White House will not implement a crude export ban, and told oil executives as much at this morning’s meeting with API, per an admin official who participated in the meeting.
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@marketplunger1 Excellent, disciplined move man. And really well done with the baby. Epic move on your part even if you miss an opportunity or two.
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Sometimes the best thing you can do is sit in tons of cash and wait.
You don’t have to do anything.
The casino will always be open.
🏴☠️@calvinfroedge
The reason why I can't say balls deep energy is because the landscape is so volatile. Who is going to have headline risk? Field disruptions. Rig suspensions. Shut-Ins. Windfall taxes. Export bans. And of course ceasefire. Really dangerous environment for investment.
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what was most interesting was how the 1990 energy shock compounded existing vulnerabilities, particularly in the credit system
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was reading the transcripts today and frankly it was disturbing. FOMC members only adjusted their forecasts incrementally, even as more and more bad news rolled in, and 5 months into the downturn, Greenspan was still in recession denial. Then things went non-linear
Dario Perkins@darioperkins
Surprised more people arent talking about 1990. Payrolls contracted in the month before the surge in oil prices, which tipped the economy more forcefully into recession. Fed couldn't respond sufficiently, delaying its cutting cycle for 6 months, until energy prices came down
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@NickTimiraos Was open disagreement promoted as the lesser evil internally, with the Fed establishment accepting that deeper politicization was inevitable? This scenario seems doubly likely to me since they were/are awaiting a political appointee as Chair.
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A longstanding taboo around Fed governors dissenting against the chair has been broken. Recent fractures have fallen along political lines. On what that means for the institution—and for the next chair. wsj.com/economy/centra…
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Jason Polansky retweetledi
Let's put it another way. The bulk of France's fleet being extended ten years will consume the life-of-mine production from Arrow.
Uranium Insider@uraniuminsider
Some uranium context, shall we? The bulk of the French fleet are 900MW (32 units) and 1300MW (20 units). Both of these designs have been given regulatory clearance to reach 50 years of operation (with individual reactor assessments and upgrades). Extensions to 60 years is under active evaluation. The extension from 40 to 50 years of operation for these 52 reactors = a whopping additional 250 million lbs. of uranium demand.
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Jason Polansky retweetledi
🚨 ⚛️
The Natural Resources Defense Council, which famously helped shut down the Indian Point nuclear plant in New York, now says the restart of a nuclear plant in Iowa is "likely to have both climate and environmental benefits and consumer benefits."
axios.com/2026/03/16/env…
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@DsrPrivate I think it was a cumulative number. tech chat people saying it's just inline
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