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Clacton by-election page is live, including scenario explorer - includes Restore Britain vote shares slider and tactical voting option More will be added as candidates are announced, as well as any polling pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/c…

Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 24% (-1) Labour: 19% (-1) Conservative: 19% (-2) Greens: 15% (+2) Liberal Democrats: 13% (+1) SNP: 3% (=) Restore Britain: 3% (=) Plaid Cymru: 2% (=) Others: 1% (-1) Via: YouGov MOE: ±2.0% Field Work: 12-13 Jul changes w/ 5-6 July

Our latest projection for the London Assembly in the Evening Standard today! Labour — 11 Seats Greens — 5 Conservatives — 4 Reform — 3 Liberal Democrats — 2 From @MileEndInst @Savanta_UK devolvedelections.co.uk/london/

Greater Manchester: mayoral by-election poll vs the May 2026 local election results. Labour: 38% poll / 23.6% locals Green: 22% / 19.0% Reform UK: 19% / 30.8% Conservative: 8% / 10.4% Lib Dem: 3% / 8.6% Restore: 9% / Did not stand Poll via Find Out Now As this is Mayoral first preferences vs Locals vote, this is for not a like for like comparison

@Bob__Fossil Of course I see that when it's already too late to edit..

Did PollCheck just tell Reform to get Refork'd? 🍴😂 #Refork #ReformUK #GreaterManchester #GMMayor

Greater Manchester mayoral by-election VI: First Preference: Labour: 38% Greens: 22% Reform: 19% Restore Britain: 9% Conservatives: 8% Lib Dems: 3% Independent: 1% Second Round: Labour vs Greens: 64-36 Labour vs Reform: 66-34 Via: Find Out Now 7-13 July Size: 1,505

Greater Manchester mayoral by-election - second choices by 2024 general election vote 2024 Labour voters' second pick: Green 40%, Labour 35%, Lib Dem 15%. 2024 Reform voters' second pick: Restore 45%, Reform 32%, Conservative 16%. Via: Find Out Now 7–13 July N=1,505

Greater Manchester mayoral by-election - SECOND preferences only Green: 25% Labour: 23% Restore Britain: 16% Lib Dem: 15% Reform UK: 12% Conservative: 8% Independent: 1% Via: Find Out Now 7–13 July Size: 1,505 Based on these transfer numbers, I'd estimate either Greens or Reform would need to be ahead of Labour by 3-5% in the first round to be able to win: Greens ~31% vs Labour ~29% Reform ~31% vs Labour ~26% Also noteable: LD second preference vote is 5x their first preference (3%) and Restore Britain's second preference is almost 2x higher than their first preference share

Fascinated by this potential Clacton candidate whocanivotefor.co.uk/person/34170/m…

London Mayoral Voting Intention: First Preferences: Labour: 33% ( -15 ) Conservatives: 18% (-11) Reform: 18% ( +15 ) Green: 17% ( +11 ) Lib Dem: 9% (+3) Others: 6% (-2) Changes w/London Mayoral Election 2024 Via: Savanta 30 June - 8 July

Approval Ratings (NET) Kemi Badenoch: -3% (+3) Ed Davey: -5% (0) Andy Burnham: -8% (-1) Zack Polanski: -16% (+1) Nigel Farage: -27% (-8) Keir Starmer: -45% (-2) Via: Opinium Field Work: 7-10 July changes w/ 1-3 July

Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 24% (-2) Labour: 19% (-1) Conservative: 18% (-1) Greens: 16% (+2) Liberal Democrats: 12% (+1) Others: 7% (+1) SNP: 3% (=) Plaid Cymru: 1% (=) Via: Opinium MOE: ±2.2% Field Work: 7-10 Jul changes w/ 1-3 July

@jM0rris_ Closest is 2008 Haltemprice and Howden by-election, the Greens were the only major party en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Halt…

@poll_checker Are there any other scenarios where no other 'major' parties were running?

Good points here - my own assumptions about by-election performance are below depending on turnout: Farage: 80-86% Count Binface: 4-8% No satirical candidate has ever kept their deposit. Screaming Lord Sutch, founder of the Monster Raving Loony Party achieved a best of 4.2% in the 1994 Rotherham by-election, and stood in 39 parliamentary elections. There's little reason to think that Clacton will suddenly back Count Binface by 20% or more - it's exactly the wrong kind of constituency for that.

@1davidmartin Ed Davey wasn't included in the data by Public First, I don't know why publicfirst.co.uk/new_polling_on…

@poll_checker You’ll add Rupert Lowe with Restore on sub 5% but not Ed Davey with the Lib Dems on 10-15% and over 70 MPs?

Net Favourability of Party Leaders: Andy Burnham: +2 Kemi Badenoch: +1.9 Rupert Lowe: -12.5 Nigel Farage: -15.2 Zack Polanski: -16.2 Keir Starmer: -31.9 Via: Public First

NEW: The Clacton by-election will take place on August 13th

Labour leads Reform with Burnham as leader, compared to all other hypotheticals Labour: 29% Reform: 25% Via: Public First 26-29 June

Approval Ratings (NET) Andy Burnham: 2% Kemi Badenoch: -1% Ed Davey: -7% Nigel Farage: -16% Zack Polanski: -22% Keir Starmer: -39% Via: Common Field Work: 3-6 July changes w/

Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 23% (-2) Conservative: 20% (+1) Labour: 18% (-3) Greens: 16% (=) Liberal Democrats: 13% (+3) Others: 5% (-1) SNP: 3% (+1) Plaid Cymru: 1% (=) Via: Find Out Now MOE: ±2.2% Field Work: 8-9 Jul changes w/ 01-Jul

🚨NEW: Piers Corbyn, brother of Jeremy Corbyn, has announced he will stand in the Clacton by-election