PollCheck

PollCheck Locals Performance: National Seat Count - this was quite good, with Conservatives being the largest miss at 127 seats underestimated. I missed some Conservative incumbency strength, especially in London Greens and Labour were about equally slightly overestimated. Greens were underestimated in London and slightly over in other parts of England. I'll also review 5 of the best and worst council calls I made. I've limited these to all out councils to make comparisons easier Best: Hammersmith and Fulham Walsall Newcastle-under-Lyme Westminster Birmingham Worst: Norfolk Bradford Sandwell Suffolk Bromley 🧵 1/10

Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 27% (+2) Labour: 20% (+1) Conservative: 18% (-1) Greens: 14% (-3) Liberal Democrats: 12% (-2) Others: 8% (+1) MOE: ±2.9% Via: Ipsos Field Work: 14-20 May changes w/ 9 - 15 April

Burnham vs Kenyon by age: Labour has a large lead with 18-34, and a small lead with 55+ Reform lead 35-54 year olds Via: Survation Note: sub samples carry larger margins of error than the original poll

Makerfield by-election vs Makerfield General Election: In the same Survation poll, 45% of respondents say they'd vote Reform UK in a general election, but Burnham gets 43% in the by-election. Burnham gets 9pp more than a generic Labour candidate (34%). Via: Survation 18-22 May

Makerfield by-election: 2024 voters Reform and Labour are keeping almost equal amounts of their 2024 voters, at 83% and 82% 13% of 2024 Reform voters are now voting Restore Britain, while 62% of 2024 Conservatives are voting Reform 12% of 2024 Labour voters are now voting Reform Conservatives keep just 16% of their 2024 vote Via: Survation Sub samples carry wider margin of error than the overall poll

NEW: First poll of Makerfield election: Labour: 43% Reform: 40% Restore Britain: 7% Lib Dems: 4% Greens: 3% Cons: 2% Other: 1% Via: Survation 18-22 May Sample size: 369 excl undecided

Approval Ratings (NET) Ed Davey: -2% (+4) Kemi Badenoch: -7% (+2) Nigel Farage: -19% (0) Zack Polanski: -19% (0) Keir Starmer: -43% (0) Via: Opinium Field Work: 20-22 May changes w/ 6 - 8 May

Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 27% (-1) Labour: 20% (+1) Conservative: 18% (=) Greens: 15% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 12% (+1) Others: 4% (=) SNP: 3% (=) Plaid Cymru: 1% (=) Via: Opinium MOE: ±2.2% Field Work: 20-22 May changes w/ 6 - 8 May

Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 26% (+1) Labour: 17% (+2) Conservative: 17% (-2) Greens: 17% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 13% (=) Others: 5% (=) SNP: 3% (-1) Plaid Cymru: 2% (=) Via: Find Out Now MOE: ±1.9% Field Work: 20-21 May changes w/ 13 May

@charliemansell Yep just saw - time to update the website again!

@poll_checker Not Chris Kennedy any more it seems as he has just pulled "for personal and family reasons" (long comms advice: never use that terminology). The Greens could be on their 3rd suggested candidate by tonight after another seems to have not made it too x.com/timespolitics/…

Parties who have announced their candidates in Makerfield by-election: Labour: Andy Burnham Reform: Robert Kenyon Restore Britain: Rebecca Shepherd Green Party: Chris Kennedy Conservatives: Michael Winstanley Official Monster Raving Loony Party: Alan "Howlin" Laud Hope

NEW: The Greens candidate in the Makerfield by-election, Chris Kennedy, has now withdrawn

Deltapoll Hypothetical: Burnham as Labour Leader Current Voting Intention: RFM: 28% LAB: 20% CON: 17% GRN: 13% LIB: 11% OTH: 6% SNP: 5% PC: 1% Andy Burnham as Labour leader: LAB: 28% (+8) RFM: 27% (-1) CON: 15% (-2) GRN: 10% (-3) LIB: 8% (-3) OTH: 6% (=) SNP: 5% (=) PC: 1% (=)

Top 20 local & community parties at the 2026 English local elections, ranked by highest single-ward vote tally (Independents excluded). #1 was Chislehurst Matters with 10,696 votes in Bromley / Chislehurst (3 seats won). 153 unique brands stood across England

NEW: Hearing the local party will be standing in the by-election and candidate selection will be taking place tonight

Approval Ratings (NET) Kemi Badenoch: -5% (+3) Ed Davey: -10% (-4) Nigel Farage: -15% (-4) Zack Polanski: -29% (-7) Keir Starmer: -46% (0) Via: More in Common Field Work: 15-19 May changes w/ 9 - 12 May

Hypothetical Poll: Burnham as Labour leader Labour would be largest party in Parliament, but still short of a majority Reform would be official opposition Changes w/current VI Via: More in Common

Analysis on three seat sweeps in Locals 2026 In wards with 3 seats, one party won all 3 seats 78% of the time Of these, the Greens had the highest median sweep vote at 48.5%, although also with the smallest amount of wards swept Labour had the lowest median at 39.5%, but swept the second highest amount of wards, just one ward behind Reform

Highest Labour polling from More in Common since 11 February 2026

Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 29% (-1) Labour: 23% (+2) Conservative: 18% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 13% (-1) Greens: 10% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Others: 3% (+1) Via: More in Common MOE: ±1.9% Field Work: 15-19 May changes w/ 9 - 12 May