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Polynumera
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Polynumera
@polynumera
Math, physics, tech, etc.
Earth Katılım Eylül 2023
593 Takip Edilen572 Takipçiler
@RichardHanania @lymanstoneky Those numbers have obviously been tortured beyond recognition. My guess is that average age at marriage rose, shrinking the denominator in the calculation.
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The Indian government reports that between 2012-2014 and 2022-2024, total fertility rate fell from 2.3 to 1.9, a decline of 17%.
But TFR for married women went up by 19%, from 4.2 to 5.0.
This adds to a growing body of evidence that the fertility crisis is a coupling crisis.
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@AlexTISYoung @mrsbiosingular What if you had test scores for other relatives (grandparents, aunts/uncles)? The embryos should vary somewhat in their genetic overlap with those relatives. Would that help at all with prediction?
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@mrsbiosingular The prediction of the actual IQ can be more accurate but it doesn't make the prediction of the differences between the embryos more accurate as they share the same parents. It just helps to predict the mean
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A lot of people seem to be thinking the 99.99th percentile here means the 99.99th percentile of the IQ distribution.
This is just showing the quantiles of the embryo PGS compared to the reference distribution. When translated into predicted IQ it looks like the below image.
A mean of about 2SDs above average but with substantial uncertainty. Note Herasight's prediction model also takes into account parental phenotypes and regression to the mean, important for getting the mean prediction right but not relevant for predicting differences for a quantitative outcome.
The important point is that this particular case shows there can be really substantial variation in predicted IQ from embryo testing in an individual family, around 1.6SDs.
Most families won't have enough embryos to observe that range, but it's certainly a possible outcome for some.
Gene Smith@GeneSmi96946389
A friend of mine had her embryos screened by Herasight and they found one with an IQ score in the 99.99th percentile
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@BillDA I believe it’s heritable, but I don’t believe these guys can assess IQ score with anything even remotely approaching this level of precision. Studies validate that you might be able to marginally distinguish +/- a couple iq points. Asserting out to .xxth percentile seems *insane*
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Wait - so are we finally allowed to admit that intelligence is a genetically heritable trait?
Gene Smith@GeneSmi96946389
A friend of mine had her embryos screened by Herasight and they found one with an IQ score in the 99.99th percentile
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@grok @DoubtfulAcct @GeneSmi96946389 Does this mean that the odds of having a +4 SD child with a parental mean of +2 SD is equivalent to having a +2.4 to +3 SD child with an average (0 SD) parental score?
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No, the odds aren't the same.
IQ is ~50-80% heritable (narrow-sense h²). For midparent IQ +2 SD (~130), expected child deviation is roughly h² × 2 SD toward the mean (e.g. ~+1 to +1.6 SD). Reaching +4 SD (~160) means a much larger positive deviation from that conditional mean.
For midparent -2 SD (~70), expected child is ~-1 to -1.6 SD. Reaching average (0 SD) requires a smaller positive deviation from expectation.
The conditional variance is symmetric, so the extreme high tail from high parents is rarer (farther out) than regressing up to average from low parents.
This is classic regression to the mean in polygenic traits.
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Polynumera retweetledi
A friend of mine had her embryos screened by Herasight and they found one with an IQ score in the 99.99th percentile
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@DoubtfulAcct @GeneSmi96946389 That’s a fair point, it does play some role, but what I said above still stands as a good first order approximation.
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@polynumera @GeneSmi96946389 You ever heard of regression to the mean?
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@GeneSmi96946389 Are parental scores measured by IQ tests or inferred from genetic tests?
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@DoubtfulAcct @GeneSmi96946389 Yes it is. The mean of the offspring is roughly the mean of the parents. +2SD from there is a ~1/50 chance.
How do you think it works?
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@polynumera @GeneSmi96946389 lol, that’s not how it works.
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@SecularFascist6 @GeneSmi96946389 @razibkhan At this stage it's made up of multiple cells. The embryo's genes are screened, and an algorithm is used to predict its IQ.
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@GeneSmi96946389 @razibkhan How can you determine the IQ of an embryo? It's just a single fertilised cell?
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@DoubtfulAcct @GeneSmi96946389 Not unusual to have one +2SD outcome out of 49 trials.
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@GeneSmi96946389 It’s more likely that the test is bullshit.
This is a “Wittgenstein’s ruler” situation.
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@Daeron0x @GeneSmi96946389 Arguably. But they have no incentive to lie about the relative IQs of the embryos, which is the only thing that will inform the parents' selection.
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@GeneSmi96946389 This company has every incentive to inflate IQ scores for the embryos to cater to their clientele.
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Polynumera retweetledi
@tszzl Lake Maracaibo in northwestern Venezuela is the world's most active lightning hotspot. The "everlasting storm" generates the highest density of lightning on Earth, with flashes occurring up to 40 times per minute
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@Dljokl High fertility groups in America have had a few generations to develop some immunity to modernity. Many places skipped straight from traditional society to TikTok almost overnight.
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Turks have a TFR of 1.11. They are "Muslims."
Ethnic Russians also have a TFR of 1.1.
But Swedes have a TFR of 1.6, as do Danes, white Americans, etc.
Can anyone explain this to me? Why are the based and trad countries worse at having babies than "Atlanticist degenerates"?
Divide et impera@Divideetimpera5
@BirthGauge TFR by Turkish Provinces 2025:
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@krus_chiki In one of his interviews he described a scene from Bruno. I found the scene and watched it in order to gauge how much he exaggerates.
The actual scene wasn't even half as entertaining as the way he described it. I imagine every story he tells is similarly embellished.
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@RuxandraTeslo Maybe the issue is that citations are doing 2 different jobs:
1. My paper builds on this work and relies heavily on its accuracy
2. This work is closely related to my own, and it would be improper of me not to acknowledge it
Important to fully read and understand 1, but not 2
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@bubbleboi It was never an existential threat, but a world with a huge elderly population being cared for by a small working population is going to struggle to innovate, build wealth, etc
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It’s been kinda clear the birth rate fear mongering was just a way to ensure pension schemes and social security stay in place rather than some existential threat to the world.
DCinvestor@DCinvestor
prediction: all of the wealthy industrialists who talked nonstop about low birth rates being the death knell of society will stop doing that completely soon they’ll come to realize more people = more liability when you already own the capital which does not require them the future is a dramatically less populated world, with far fewer humans and far more machines the realities of modern life demand this basically every country which industrializes has plummeting birth rates, when children become a greater economic cost than an economic benefit at the individual level one way this might reverse is hyperabundance and greater free time for individuals, but i do not believe the powers that be will allow for this to happen
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@Memetic_Theory @mrsbiosingular Link? Or, short of that, details?
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Polynumera retweetledi
On the latest round of fertility discourse, friends don't let friends share chart 1 without the important context of chart 2, which is @lymanstoneky's child-survival adjustment:
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@bpodgursky Isn’t that a whitepill? Tech is moving so fast modern sci-fi authors can’t keep up.
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Depressing blackpill is that modern science fiction, book and film, is not even pretending to predict a future that projects contemporary tech forward. AGI? FPV combat drones? Just pretend they don't exist. They just invent retro timelines that don't suck.
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