Patricia Marins@pati_marins64
The UAE doubles down, risking the social contract
On May 3rd, Iran confirmed that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) used fighter jets to bomb Iranian territory.
This comes weeks after Iran downed at least four Chinese-made Wing Loong drones. At that time, Tehran was uncertain whether the drones belonged to the UAE or Saudi Arabia, as both operate the same model.
Today, Iran confirmed that the UAE has fully entered the war, deploying both drones and manned aircraft.
Until now, the Emirati regime had denied any offensive collaboration with the coalition. In the first week of the war, Abu Dhabi claimed it had not authorized the use of its soil or airspace for strikes against Iran. This proved to be a mere performance.
As soon as Iran began targeting HIMARS positions on UAE soil, hundreds of American soldiers sought refuge in hotels across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Ras Al Khaimah.
In recent weeks, the UAE has stopped hiding its collaboration with Israel. During the recent truce, Emirati officials attended a meeting in Israel alongside the Commander of CENTCOM. By doing so, the UAE sealed its role as Israel’s staunch ally, a stance that goes beyond military cooperation and is marked by a deep diplomatic rupture with Saudi Arabia.
The UAE now finds itself in a geopolitical sandwich: Iran to its front, Saudi Arabia at its rear, and Qatar, with whom relations were only recently restored, at its side. This posture, dictated by Abu Dhabi, is extremely dangerous on economic, military, and social levels.
The UAE was built on a Social Contract: the government provides wealth, security, and world-class services in exchange for absolute political loyalty.
This contract depends on a strong economy; as long as prosperity is guaranteed, most citizens accept foreign policy decisions, even if they disagree with them.
Currently, the greatest social risk is religious, the fear that the alliance with Israel will be perceived as a betrayal of Islam. To mitigate this, Abu Dhabi invests heavily in the narrative of Moderate Islam and coexistence (exemplified by the Abrahamic Family House), attempting to reframe the alliance as a tool for peace rather than war.
All this occurs while the UAE maintains one of the world’s most sophisticated internal surveillance systems, ensuring any organized dissent is neutralized before it gains momentum.
The UAE has decided to bet everything against Iran, but why is this a high-stakes gamble? Because no one expects regime change in Iran anymore. On the contrary, the Iranian government appears solid. This is where Abu Dhabi’s strategy begins to threaten its own survival.
The UAE is now Iran’s primary target. In a possible second phase of the war, the scale of the Iranian retaliatory strike will be devastating now that they have confirmed Emirati jets are bombing Iranian facilities. Even looking toward the future, this move may be the final nail in the coffin for everything the UAE has built.
Full article:
open.substack.com/pub/global21/p…
