Miguel

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Miguel

Miguel

@pragmatictake

Katılım Mayıs 2016
1.8K Takip Edilen745 Takipçiler
Miguel
Miguel@pragmatictake·
@DeepDishEnjoyer Possible but more likely this is because his biggest rivals have teamed up to oust him
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Miguel
Miguel@pragmatictake·
@Qua59557042 @BoBbyPleWniaK All the companies you mention have declining terminal value because software related moats are being drained by AI. Microsoft is being lunished for claudes growing lead in AI
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Qua
Qua@Qua59557042·
@BoBbyPleWniaK Msft crwd snow Good long-term / fundamental sound companies Also down massively sir past few months
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Bobby Plewniak
Bobby Plewniak@BoBbyPleWniaK·
Still hard to believe $TSLA has dumped 8 weeks in a row, especially when QQQ has recovered substantially over the last two weeks. Many have thrown in the towel on TSLA and are chasing something else. $TSLA has broken many hearts and will continue to do so. She’s not an easy ticker to hold. You have to be a special kind of crazy, have faith in Elon, and avoid the noise. The noise can be overwhelming at times. Do what you gotta do. I’ve made my bed and sleep well at night.
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Miguel
Miguel@pragmatictake·
@BoBbyPleWniaK @positivecarry88 You are crazy to think this. Look at those companies eárnings. Tesla is the only trillion dollar plus company to have such low earnings and will now even be cash flow negative.
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lord pretty flacko ⚔️
lord pretty flacko ⚔️@smdcapital·
$tsla one thing i really meditate on is the fact that 1 car sold today earns about $3k in operating income, whereas 1 robotaxi tomorrow will earn $30k operating income annually P/E is the wrong barometer / valuation method for tesla, that's why it is not strongly correlated with future price action P/E is an OUTPUT, not an INPUT in order to value tesla properly, you need to forecast its earnings 5-10 years out and then apply a discount rate IMO, tesla's discount rate is the main metric that experiences volatility & is a function of rate of improvement of FSD nevertheless, once the discount rate stabilizes & comes down over time as robotaxi fleet begins to scale, there will no doubt be a massive re-rating why? because the financial structure of tesla flips this will coincide with bots being sold in 2027 onward -- the likely pricing model is $40-50k / unit (or, more likely pricing model IMO is Robot-as-a-Service, ie $3k/month without the hassle of maintenance/depreciation) delays are fucking annoying (obviously) but you don't go and panic sell when we're in oversold territory; maybe you can be right timing the market and dodge a 5% further decline from here, but how do you make a decision to jump back in when the stock jumps 10% in two sessions? do you go all in, or do you think to yourself "ehh it'll drop back down and i'll buy it back lower" the time to play defense was 4 months ago when the 9/21 weekly EMA's were lost; not now when weekly RSI is <35 with a historic BXT LL streak.. just my 2 cents
lord pretty flacko ⚔️ tweet media
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Emmet Peppers
Emmet Peppers@EmmetPeppers·
@TravisAbbott429 EPS is almost impossible to model when the entire labor economy is about to be turned upside down by these new products Tesla is about to unleash to the masses
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Emmet Peppers
Emmet Peppers@EmmetPeppers·
Here are my thoughts on recent $TSLA price action and why it’s underperforming (hint: nothing to do with “shorts”). Here are the top UNCERTAINTIES that may be causing some institutions to de-risk and lighten up their Tesla exposure: 1. Unsupervised robotaxi business scaling up feels increasingly likely to continue being delayed indefinitely.
I think it will feel this way until it suddenly doesn’t. My guess: serious scaling in the first couple of cities will begin sometime this summer. 2. SpaceX IPO collateral damage.
There will be some investors who sell at least some of their $TSLA holdings to fund purchases of SpaceX shares. For example, net selling $25 billion of $TSLA stock (about 70 million shares) in a relatively short period could easily drop the price by 20% (a temporary $250 billion market-cap hit). We may already be seeing that ownership reshuffle now.
Conversely, will any SpaceX investors sell some of their SpaceX shares to buy more $TSLA? I think that could trigger the rebound if $TSLA drops sharply during or right after the SpaceX IPO. 3. Increasing speculation of a SpaceX<>Tesla merger in the near term (possible right before the SpaceX IPO, but more likely sometime after, per Polymarket estimates).
The terms of any such merger remain uncertain until announced. In the eyes of current $TSLA stockholders, would those terms favor SpaceX or Tesla in the short term? This creates big uncertainty, the stock could easily gap up or down 10-20% immediately on such a merger announcement.
Tesla is already tricky enough for conventional institutional investors to ‘value’ and justify in their portfolios. How will those portfolio models handle the valuation after a merger if the investor has no current interest in owning SpaceX? Once we get through above uncertainties I do believe the stock can really take off again, just not sure if that can happen until at least 1-2 of these become more certain first. Disclosure: This is not investment advice, just my current thoughts to consider for the many long term investors who follow me.
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vittorio
vittorio@IterIntellectus·
starting to suspect this is staged, because if it’s real i have to accept i’ve been living in a horror movie this whole time are you telling me the world could be this beautiful? what the fuck you can just press the button and get a developed country
Nayib Bukele@nayibbukele

🇸🇻

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Miguel
Miguel@pragmatictake·
@CyberSolarX @CuriousPejjy Ding ding ding. Meanwhile Nvidia announced the Hyperion autonomous driving platform and it’s being beta tested all around the world
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Josh
Josh@CyberSolarX·
@CuriousPejjy Since December, we've seen almost no progress on robotaxi expansion in numbers of vehicles or cities, no new fsd updates, multiple delays in optimus
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Pejjy
Pejjy@CuriousPejjy·
Just 4 months ago everyone who invested in $TSLA were extremely optimistic as the stock hit an all-time high and it seemed everything was perfect DESPITE weaker revenue and earnings than the year before. 4 months later (today), everyone is pessimistic, negative and angry because the stock keeps slipping due to market and macroenvironment conditions. Investors are angry at Elon for not fulfilling his promises which are in progress. Many Tesla investors are on the verge on throwing in the towel. All this change in emotion took only 4 months. We don't know what will happen in the next 4 months but boy I wouldn't be surprised if it's sunshines and rainbows again. Anything could happen in next 4 months. Robotaxi expansion could expand unexpectedly fast. FSD could be approved in China & Europe. Cybercab could be popping out left, right and center. That's $TSLA. Once it hits, it hits and it all happens when you least expect it and since I've been holding since 2020, this is expected with a company like Tesla. I'm keeping my PT of $700 for end of this year.
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Miguel
Miguel@pragmatictake·
@BradMunchen @bywillpollock I don’t think that matters so much as they all realize Tesla progress on AVs is becoming a joke. If nvidia launches hyperion and we see thousands of AVs on the road before they can do unsupervised stock will just go kaput
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Motorhead
Motorhead@BradMunchen·
@bywillpollock Question is: how much dip-buying will there be if $TSLA bag holders need to shore up cash for the SpaceX IPO? 🤔
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Miguel
Miguel@pragmatictake·
@DadInvest I won’t ever get anything but lox bagel cream cheesewith capers..poppy seed bagel. If you don’t want that don’t send me to get bagels
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J.D. Banker
J.D. Banker@DadInvest·
Defcon 3 after I took breakfast ordering into my own hands. Apparently cinnamon raisin toasted with plain cream cheese makes me the worst person on earth.
J.D. Banker tweet media
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CuiBono
CuiBono@CuiBonoCapital·
@slapshotcapital Olajuwon is my favorite player of all time. The contrast in their style is wild.
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Miguel
Miguel@pragmatictake·
@Jesse_Livermore Plus corruption is also endemic there. I’m sure you read about the guy who designed their next gen stealth fighter…
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Miguel
Miguel@pragmatictake·
@Jesse_Livermore Eh, maybe but we have way better demographics and are blessed with natural resources other reserve currency countries can only dream of
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Hamid
Hamid@hamids·
For a long time I’ve been saying that $TSLA is going to destroy Waymo with its Robotaxi rollout and become #1 in short order but I could’ve never guessed that nearly a year after Robotaxi launch, Tesla Robotaxis are still non-existent (they have like 10 of them now!?) and Waymo is still outpacing their growth. What is the holdup with Robotaxis?
Gali@Gfilche

📈 @Waymo is growing like crazy 500,000 rides per week, doubling in just 11 months At a ~$500M revenue run-rate 💵 When does @Robotaxi catchup? ⚡️

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ChristianBernier
ChristianBernier@C_Bernier_·
@pragmatictake @InvestorChandra @hamids There are people who see a car driving across the US with no one touching the steering wheel, who understand this technology is the most advanced. Then there are people who just believe what they're told.
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Miguel
Miguel@pragmatictake·
It’s funny to me to see people with very little technical background comment so confidently that only Tesla can solve this and only Tesla will dominate this space. It’s probably because their net worth is dependent on this being true. They say never bet against Elon. but they should also say never bet against Jensen or Nvidia. Just in 2026 Nvidia will produce more 3x profit than Tesla has in its entire existence. Bizarre you and others will say Jensen has no chance
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Miguel
Miguel@pragmatictake·
I remember when no one believed the Chinese would be able to build compelling EVs and Tesla would be the apple of electric vehicles indefinitely because no one else could build EVs like they could. In the end BYD became the world’s largest producer of EVs and Teslas margins and prices came down significantly. FSD is not doing coast to coast driverless you still have to monitor the vehicle. Only Waymo is doing true driverless in multiple cities with no safety monitors.
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Miguel
Miguel@pragmatictake·
Even if Tesla is the first to truly scale autonomous vehicles it’s somewhat foolish to imagine they would be only company capable of deploying autonomous vehicles. Eventually the business will be as competitive as electronic vehicles and AVs will be ubiquitous. nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/drive-hyp…
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Miguel
Miguel@pragmatictake·
@C_Bernier_ @InvestorChandra @hamids L4 comes from Nvidia not the car companies and journalists and others have already beta tested the product. I believe in fading the other carmakers, not the guy who enabled ai and built the worlds largest company.
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ChristianBernier
ChristianBernier@C_Bernier_·
@pragmatictake @InvestorChandra @hamids Point is you're calling it L4 with 0 cars on the road. A lot of promises of batteries, self-driving, even just regular EV manufacturing has come from these auto companies. Yet they continue to suck balls while Tesla's been making consistent progress.
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