ChristianBernier

New video: The Ultimate $LMND Q1 2026 Preview youtu.be/JA4tuDOqijU

@JamesSurowiecki Sorry I only judge financial decisions on a 6-year time horizon.

The persistence of the cult of Tesla stockholders is odd. Over the past 5 years, Tesla is up 63%. The S&P 500 is also up 63%, but its total return is 71% with dividends. So Tesla has underperformed the market as a whole, with a lot more volatility. Why the unblinking faith?

@pragmatictake @InvestorChandra @hamids It wasn't a meaningful business and very few people thought it would become so. That's why the stock was like $0.50 then.

@C_Bernier_ @InvestorChandra @hamids That means general purpose developers and ai researchers first started using their stuff btw

For a long time I’ve been saying that $TSLA is going to destroy Waymo with its Robotaxi rollout and become #1 in short order but I could’ve never guessed that nearly a year after Robotaxi launch, Tesla Robotaxis are still non-existent (they have like 10 of them now!?) and Waymo is still outpacing their growth. What is the holdup with Robotaxis?

@pragmatictake @InvestorChandra @hamids Jenson started marketing GPUs to beyond gaming in 2006. How many years until that took off?

@C_Bernier_ @InvestorChandra @hamids When was the last time Jensen promised something to investors and customers and didn’t deliver?

@YoussC1 @pakpakchicken US supports Israel. Are you not buying any companies with a US CEO?

@pakpakchicken Israeli CEO, no thank you

4 years ago i sold $lmnd for 3x + a lot of hate Considering getting back in. Putting this back on your radar

@pragmatictake @InvestorChandra @hamids There are people who see a car driving across the US with no one touching the steering wheel, who understand this technology is the most advanced. Then there are people who just believe what they're told.

I remember when no one believed the Chinese would be able to build compelling EVs and Tesla would be the apple of electric vehicles indefinitely because no one else could build EVs like they could. In the end BYD became the world’s largest producer of EVs and Teslas margins and prices came down significantly. FSD is not doing coast to coast driverless you still have to monitor the vehicle. Only Waymo is doing true driverless in multiple cities with no safety monitors.

Nvidia primarily makes hardware, Google is way beyond Nvidia in creating the actual AI, and their AI driving system is extremely limited in geography, and often gets stuck in said geofence. There's no plug-and-play Nvidia can offer. All the while FSD is doing coast-to-coast drives and today you can watch it in any city with a youtuber with fsd. Tesla has basically unlimited real-world data. The next in line is closer to 0% than 1% of Tesla's data. These car companies can't add the cost of Nvidia's system for scaled driving data collection while staying in business.

@C_Bernier_ @InvestorChandra @hamids L4 comes from Nvidia not the car companies and journalists and others have already beta tested the product. I believe in fading the other carmakers, not the guy who enabled ai and built the worlds largest company.

@pragmatictake @InvestorChandra @hamids Point is you're calling it L4 with 0 cars on the road. A lot of promises of batteries, self-driving, even just regular EV manufacturing has come from these auto companies. Yet they continue to suck balls while Tesla's been making consistent progress.

@C_Bernier_ @InvestorChandra @hamids I can see you didn’t read the article. Nvidia isn’t making the csrs. They give the driverless tech to car manufacturers and they make the cars. They expect to have 50-100k cars on the road by end of next year. BYD , Mercedes, ford all partners

@pragmatictake @InvestorChandra @hamids Yeah... what car models have this? How many robotaxis have it? Fact is Tesla has a grand canyon of a data advantage, and nothing will come close to the low cost cybercab. Can't beat verticality.

@InvestorChandra @hamids Nvidias driverless platform will be licensed to 12 auto manufacturers including ford and byd. It’s already level 4. youtube.com/watch?v=lnNi72…

@JoshWest247 There will be few machine mechanics relative to the AI-operators of said machines. Changing tires is good and all, but say goodbye to operating the tractor.

Just another job humans can do and AI cannot. Good luck Optimus 😂 😂

@WR4NYGov @AleAgoPiaggio How can it be? It will be in Tesla cars.

@AleAgoPiaggio I’m not sure AI5 will be restricted in trade

Prediction: China will win the AI race because it will dominate the demand side. Large swathes of the US economy will resist AI deployment - governments, education, health care, law, ports and railways, etc. High risk Democrats win next two elections and tank US AI development. Plus China has more electricity generation. I don’t see how Elon saves America from shooting itself in the foot.

@ShipGeneration @TeslaXplored Finally someone with balls replies.

@TeslaXplored I don’t care. Actually a good thing. I got way more shares now before it really takes off. Not worried at all and have a time horizon of 5-10 years.

No FSD V14.3. No New RoboTaxi cites. No added Unsupervised RoboTaxis in Austin. CyberCab has no steering wheel! What an absolute mess 🤦🏽‍♂️ I thought 2026 was gonna be $tsla year 🙄

@StrokeDistance @TeslaXplored @ElonFinkelstein God can I just filter out anyone who says fucking lidar?

@TeslaXplored @ElonFinkelstein You can bet neither of those are happening. Optimus is the biggest fraud. As useless as an 80 yr old. Slow and clumsy. Unable to provide any value. At least 10 years away from that. He’s full of shit on this. Unsupervised is unlikely to be approved without lidar. Game over.

I’m sick and tired of hearing 1M robotaxis, 1B humanoid robots, age of abundance, order of magnitude…. and all the company does for profit is sell 1.6M cars and some batteries. Need to start executing on things that add to the bottom line $tsla

@barkmeta One time the president literally said right before pausing tariffs amidst a dropping stock market, "This is a great time to buy!" So I don't want to hear there's never a sign.

Let me explain what just happened 👇 5 minutes before the President announced a halt to attacks on Iran… someone placed a $1.5 BILLION bet on stocks going up and dumped $192 million in oil. 5 minutes… These trades were 4 to 6 times larger than anything else in the entire market. Whoever did this wasn’t guessing. You don’t risk $1.5 billion on a hunch. There was zero public indication this announcement was coming. No leaks. No press. Nothing. The only people who knew were in the room when the decision was made. Someone in that room picked up a phone. And within minutes they made more money than most Americans will earn in a thousand lifetimes. In a single trade. On a war that cost you $4+ a gallon gas and $16 billion in tax dollars. American citizens funded this war. Politicians are profiting from it. This is not the first time. Every major announcement from this administration has had massive suspicious trades right before it dropped. Tariff reversals. Policy shifts. War decisions. This is the most blatant insider trading operation in the history of American politics. It’s not even close. And it’s happening over and over in broad daylight. You would go to federal prison for trading on a tip from your cousin. These people are front running war decisions with billion dollar bets and nobody will ever ask a single question. Nobody will be investigated. Nobody will be charged. By tomorrow this will be buried under the next satisfying headline. Just like last time. And the time before that. The game is rigged. And they’re not even trying to hide it anymore…

@Neil_X10 @Tesla @elonmusk My guess is they're waiting for 14.3 with its better reasoning ability before scaling. FSD already drives safe, if it can never or almost never get confused and stuck, what's to stop it? Atleast that's my wishful thinking!

@C_Bernier_ @Tesla @elonmusk I think production plans were put in place on the premise FSD would already be solved. But we’re still on that long march of 9s… I was in the states earlier this year and got to field test 14.2.2 for several weeks — definitely amazing, but still not ready for prime time.

$TSLA @Tesla & @elonmusk Thoughts on the business after Terafab Summary: 🔹 Weakening core execution and increasing dependence on future narratives with very high execution risk. 🔹 Management appears increasingly focused on adjacent moonshots rather than stabilizing the base business. 🔹 The current valuation is still being supported primarily by future optionality. 🔸 For me, that makes Tesla high-risk and not presently investable. --- 🔹 Core auto business continues weakening. — Cybertruck sales disappointing. — 3 & Y growth stalled. — S & X discontinued. — Factories underutilized. — Semi / Roadster non-existent. — Low cost model shelved. — No consumer education. — No brand protection. 🔹 FSD has improved a lot, but the commercial reality is still far narrower than what shareholders were led to believe. What exists today is progress. What does not yet exist is autonomy at the scale, speed, or economic significance long implied. 🔹 Energy is (sort of) booming, but the overall picture is still mixed when viewed against broader weakness elsewhere: — 4680 progress is good but severely lagging. — Solar roof basically dead. — Solar business largely shelved. — Virtual / distributed power plant progress a major disappointment vs. stated ambitions. 🔹 Optimus looks great, but it's not financially meaningful, and won't be for a long time. And now we have Terafab, which looks like yet another long-duration promise layered onto a business already asking investors to underwrite substantial future execution. While I respect Elon as a builder, the gap between valuation, promise, and realized execution is simply too wide for me. There may still be massive upside here... But at this point, Tesla increasingly looks like a high-variance bet on AI, robotics, and silicon optionality, while the core business continues weakening underneath it. There are better places for my capital today...

Yesterday SpaceX launched 29 more Starlink satellites from Florida. Nobody cared. Routine. Another Tuesday. Here is what actually happened. Satellite number 10,074 entered an orbit where 300,000 autonomous collision-avoidance maneuvers were executed last year alone. Not by humans. By onboard machine learning that screens conjunction data from 30 million object-transit observations per day, computes probability in real time, and fires ion thrusters if risk exceeds one in a million. The industry standard is one in ten thousand. SpaceX set its threshold 1,000 times stricter and then automated the entire thing. Three hundred thousand maneuvers. That is 820 per day. Forty per satellite per year. Every single one decided and executed by AI faster than a ground controller could open the alert email. This is Tesla Full Self-Driving logic running in vacuum at 7.8 kilometers per second. SpaceX did not stop there. In January they launched Stargaze, a space situational awareness network built on the star trackers already aboard every Starlink satellite. Thirty million observations daily, conjunction screening delivered in minutes instead of hours, and they gave the data away for free to every operator on Earth. They just made themselves the air traffic control system for low-Earth orbit and charged nothing because the real product is not the data. The real product is the standard. Now connect this to last week. Terafab breaks ground in Austin. One terawatt per year of AI compute. Eighty percent allocated to space. D3 chips designed to run hotter in vacuum where radiative cooling is free. Satellites with 100-kilowatt solar arrays scaling to megawatt. Optimus robots replicating from raw materials. The Dyson Swarm bootstrap. Every analyst covering Terafab is modeling chip yields, capital costs, and process nodes. Not one of them is asking the question that determines whether any of it works: how do you manage ten thousand satellites without a single collision, and then scale that to ten million, and then to five billion? The answer already exists. It launched its 300,000th maneuver months ago. It processes 30 million observations every 24 hours. It operates at a collision-probability threshold three orders of magnitude beyond what any government or competitor has achieved. And it improves with every satellite added because more nodes means more eyes means better models means safer density. This is the orbital operating system for a Kardashev II civilization and it is already running. The Hormuz crisis proved that terrestrial supply chains are molecule-dependent and fragile. The Terafab announcement proved that Musk intends to move compute off-planet. But neither of those matter if the orbital environment becomes a debris field. The collision-avoidance AI is the gate. Without it, every satellite launched is a lottery ticket for Kessler syndrome. With it, density becomes self-reinforcing instead of self-destroying. Nobody is covering this because it is not a product announcement. It is not a keynote. It is infrastructure so foundational that it has become invisible, the way TCP/IP became invisible the moment the internet worked. SpaceX did not just build a satellite constellation. They built the nervous system of orbital civilization and trained it on 300,000 real-world decisions before anyone realized what they were looking at. The rockets are visible. The chips are headline news. The AI keeping ten thousand objects from destroying each other in silence at eight kilometers per second is the actual breakthrough. And yesterday they added 29 more nodes to the network. Routine.

NVIDIA ROBOTAXI READY? IS TESLA DOOMED Nvidia has new level 4 chips for autonomous driving. Will this kill Tesla? @elonmusk They have 19 car partners who collectively can make 18 million cars per year. How many Nvidia Thor chips are installed in those cars ? Jensen must have announced orders of many chips for many cars? The Nvidia system will use LIDAR? There must have been many new orders for more robotaxi grade LIDAR for the millions of cars that Nvidia will enable with robotaxi ready systems. Jensen must have had BYD demonstrate a BYD car with Level 4 driving. Surprising since BYD said all of their cars starting in 2025 would have a BYD made Gods Eye driving system. Why is BYD switching from Gods Eye to Nvidia? I thought BYD had solved their autonomous driving.

@JonBryant421 @Pask218337 Race is over guys, robotaxis have replaced about 4 people's car ownership.

@C_Bernier_ @Pask218337 It's only a moat if it turns into performance. For Tesla, that is not the case.

Tesla fans think it‘ll dominate autonomy. Nvdia is looking to commodotize it. Tesla is very far behind. If Tesla ever gets there, Tesla has almost no chance of getting outsized returns from autonomy. That means it can never justify its current SP just as sales were overestimated

@JonBryant421 @Pask218337 Fyi if there are "partners", they can't win. Vertical integration is the moat.

@Pask218337 What they have are partners closer to Level 4 than Tesla.