pritz786

@GasBuddyGuy No tip to make sure tires are filled properly

Top tips for road trip and summer travel: • Use cruise control, ease acceleration, and cut speed ~10mph for up to 10-25% better MPG • Use GasBuddy to compare prices + activate Flash Deals for up to 33c/gal off • Watch state lines—prices can swing sharply. Plan stops ahead

@morgan_downey Bullshit... most of them are wrong.

Trump exited China this morning sans Iran announcement. Here are 50 reasons oil rallies to $150+ in June (feel free to add more in the comments): 1. Hormuz closed 10+ weeks. 2. 12M bpd loss ongoing. 3. Trump-Xi meet. No Iran deal 4. Demand destruction needs $150-$250 to really get started. 5. 85-day buffer nearly gone. 6. 1B efficiency glut depleted. 7. SPR releases insufficient. 8. Global inventories at lows. 9. OECD commercial lean. 10. China strategic buying. 11. India demand strong. 12. Europe restocking. 13. US production promising but flat ultra short term. 14. OPEC+ no short term relief. 15. Spare capacity gone. 16. Geopolitical premium high. 17. $100 floor holding. 18. Momentum building. 19. Analysts raising price targets. 20. Summer driving season. 21. Refinery margins high. 22. Floating storage draining. 23. Pipeline constraints. 24. Tanker rates spiking. 25. Insurance costs up. 26. Asia imports surging. 27. Middle East tension. 28. No quick resolution sustainable. 29. New buffer math exhausted. 30. Price inelasticity. 31. Speculative longing. 32. Physical tightness. 33. Inventory data hitting 5yr lows. 34. Demand resilience. 35. Supply shocks compounding. 36. SPR at 20-year low. 37. Commercial stocks drawn. 38. Efficiency gains exhausted. 39. Just-in-time gaps emerging. 40. Consumer spending robust. 41. Forward curve backwardation. 42. Crack spreads wide. 43. Jet fuel demand fall not enough. 44. Diesel tightness. 45. Gasoline season starting. 46. Global economic growth steady. 47. China stimulus. 48. India expansion. 49. No alternative energy supply. 50. Equity and fixed income markets not familiar with physical oil reality.

@IranIntl_En Not even a current minister... and it is still published... very poor news reporting and more like a propangda machine

Iran’s former labor minister said the war between Iran and the United States would last for years and was “not going to end.” He dismissed the US maritime blockade on Iran as mostly psychological. “The enemy cannot create challenges for us through a naval blockade and mostly uses its psychological effect,” Hojatollah Abdolmaleki said.

@MarketWatch Recycling the same headline every month...

Why the oil crisis could become a full-blown global catastrophe within a month trib.al/RjfJm20

@trump_repost @grok who is the women in this picture?

@OilandGibbs Outside of E15, isn’t ethanol hitting a wall in blending pool?

So, why? Capacity: 18.4Bgal Consumption: 14.3Bgal (10.6% blend) Net Exports: 2.3Bgal 14.3 + 2.3 = 16.6Bgal demand 16.6/18.4 = 90% ethanol utilization Demand limited by: infrastructure Higher ethanol blends: need E15 Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) waiver certainty. W/o it petroleum refiners are required to modify blendstock for oxygenate blending (BOB). It's too costly vs. E10 (RVP waiver since 1998). Existing fuel retailers slow to invest in tankage/pumps w/o certainty. Most E15 availability at new retailers or mandated states (Iowa). All 2001 or newer vehicles approved for E15. >15% requires a flex fuel vehicle (FFV). Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) credits for FFV for automakers have largely disappeared since 2020. Exports: EIA monthly data suggests a ~2.6bgal/yr is capable. Dock availability is a major constraint in the primary US Gulf Coast export hub. Ethanol competes with gasoline+diesel etc for tankage and loadings. Protectionist foreign measures an additional risk: Netherlands restricted denatured ethanol imports. Rail + truck markets smoother, yet Canada becoming saturated w/o >E10. Despite infrastructure constraints, US production won't stop because of: 45Z tax credits (2025-29+) The US ethanol industry has been conditioned to run on ~5-10 cent a gallon profit margins. Now, with the removal of ILUC starting in 2026, most ethanol plants can get 10+ cents of tax credits. Those with active carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) gain >50 cents. Thus, you will be producing US ethanol to collect tax credits. Traditional ethanol crush margin benchmarks could even go negative. Ethanol capacity is going to EXPAND in the US by 2030. Buckle up, this is just getting started.

@mmm_btus It’s Tech consulting… even worse

When tech tries to manage commodity exposure

@SpartaCommo @JuneGoh_Sparta Consultants like to sell fear

A US blockade will be hard to do but worst case scenarios in Hormuz look here to stay. Petroline is under attack. Last week's pump station hits may be opening moves, not isolated incidents. European runs are now at risk with Brent premiums too high. US crude exports are about to soar. > US Iran blockade creates logistics nightmare but Iranian flows clearly at risk. > Yanbu's 3.5-4.5 MBD incremental crude could vanish overnight if Petroline attacks persist. > Flat price ripping on these notions make sense. But physical tightness will outlast headlines. Read the full Iran/crude analysis here: spartacommodities.com/insights/looks… Access real-time crude pricing and arbs: signup.sparta.app #oilmarkets #oiltrading #commoditytrading #oott

@SStapczynski After the KSA and UAE bypass, the baseline number would be much lower.

In normal times, approximately 130 to 135 shipscross the Strait of Hormuz daily

@financialjuice What are they going to say? That they bent and accepted the ceasefire offer

Iran State TV: Trump's humiliating retreat from anti-Iran rhetoric. Trump accepts Iran terms for ending the war

@Faytuks The watermark says Iraq

Pictures from Jubail in the KSA

Breaking: Fire reported in Saudi Arabia's industrial city of Jubail following an Iranian missile attack The area is home to petrochemical facilities, gas facilities and power & desalination plants, to name a few

@JavierBlas Hassett who was considered for top job in Fed reserve knows what he is talking about...

White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett says the oil futures market agrees Iran is a short-term disruption. Apparently he means the shape of the oil futures curve, which is massively backwardated (or inverted, if you prefer that terminology). Now, who’s going to tell him?

🚨Breaking | Military spokesperson for Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen: "We will not stop here and will respond to developments according to the enemy’s escalation or de-escalation. ▪︎ Our military intervention in this important and exceptional battle is gradual."

@Sino_Market Bullshit

🇺🇸White House Sees Oil at $150+ Risk, Flags $200 Upside Scenario White House officials are discussing potential oil spikes to $150 per barrel or higher. The U.S. Department of the Treasury expects prices to stay above $100 for some time, viewed by the administration as a baseline, while not ruling out a rise toward $200 per barrel (mktnews.com/flashDetail.ht…)

@ZmansEnrgyBrain Bad Cop, Good Cop

U.S. will destroy Iran’s oil wells, Kharg Island without deal to 'immediately' reopen Hormuz Strait - Trump Any incremental oil from Iran will be helpful - Bessent Same hour, same day. One of these guys is worried about causing a global depression. One is not. #OOTT

@SpartaCommo @JuneGoh_Sparta Because inventories in West are well above 5 yr range and refineries are running at a very high rate in the West especially US

Gasoline Market Flash: So I guess we don't need gasoline? - Gasoline cracks, especially EBOB and Sg92, have fallen strongly this week in a move which feels counterintuitive in the wider context of inconsistent messaging on de-escalation in the PG and no sign that existing and impending lower crude throughput across Asia is to be avoided. - The E/W, which started the week at $9/bbl, is now down to just $2.50/bbl. Similarly, spreads are off from their highs at the end of last week. Stocks in Singapore rose w-o-w as exports fell, but high-frequency readings in the pricing centre is unlikely to be the first place to see supply crunch. The end-user countries in Asia and East Africa typically relying on exports out of the AG, Singapore, or China are looking to supplies from Europe, with arbs open from ARA even at these significantly narrower E/W levels. - The fact that arbs from Europe to the East remain workable also comes despite a significant narrowing in the gas-nap spread in the last day or two on the back of curtailed Russian exports and some price response in the petchems sector that should help to maintain steam cracker margins. Naphtha cracks in Asia are firmly positive, and have now turned positive again in Europe, harming blend econs for finished gasoline barrels in both ARA and Singapore. The USGC continues to benefit from a fairly steady RBOB premium over MB C5, with destinations across the Atlantic Basin, west coast Americas and Australia all pointing definitively to Houston for resupply. - With strong signals in place to move molecules from West to East, and inventories already drawing quickly across the Atlantic Basin on strong arb pull and backwardation, a Q2 EBOB crack at $20/bbl is actually below the seasonal level from 2023 and 2024. The spread between ICE Gasoil and EBOB has now blown back out to $200/mt. Begging the question, why are both prompt and deferred gasoline cracks not higher? By @PhilipJL_Sparta, Senior Analyst. For deeper market intelligence, daily commentaries, and expert insight, access Sparta Knowledge with a free 30-day trial: signup.sparta.app #oott #gasoline

@zerohedge India still getting barrels from Iran

*INDIA GOVT OFFICIAL: WON'T RELEASE STRATEGIC CRUDE STOCKPILES

@PaulSaladnio7 Wrong, in April 2022, the prolonging of Russian-Ukraine war made the price shift.

Right now the #natgas market believes we only have to survive winter, not that production needs to rise/demand needs to fall over the next 9 months. The sickening price increases will come when that shift occurs, it happened in April of 2022. Feels like a similar timeline in ‘26

@emirates @Starlink @grok I have an Emirates flight in 3 days. Will it be equipped with Starlink?

We're taking inflight WiFi to new heights! ✈️🛜 @Starlink is bringing ultra-fast WiFi onboard to your next Emirates flight, keeping you connected at 40,000 feet.

@clacey_carl Next season, we need a storm named "Newman"!

"Hello............Jerry!" (a non-event for oil. Just been waiting to use that line since the storm names list came out)