

Jason Davis
1.9K posts

@profjason
Prof @INSEAD studying digital innovation & networks, especially AI, agents & crypto; network agency theory; https://t.co/jwHi39Hypw ex @StanfordEng @Caltech @MIT








Every job invented in the 20th Century is threatened by AI.

This was the Standard Oil play from Rockefeller. He realized early all the risk was in finding/drilling oil so he just refined it and sold it as safer and standardized. He dumped the risk onto everyone else and didn't care who won because he was the distributor not the one taking the risk.

Dwarkesh asks Dario a fantastic question relating to how he is so bullish on AGI yet so conservative on data center build out - Dario has an amazing take on this: Dario Amodei details the staggering financial risk of the AI race, explaining that if growth continues at 10x a year, a company could be looking at a $1 trillion revenue run rate by the end of 2027. He notes that to support this, a firm might buy $5 trillion worth of compute. However, he highlights a "ruinous" dilemma: if that revenue is even slightly lower than projected. specifically if it comes in at $800 billion instead of $1 trillion the company would collapse. He explains that if you are off by just a year or if the growth rate drops to 5x, "there's no force on earth, there's no hedge on earth, that could stop me from going bankrupt" after committing to that level of spend. Because of this, Amodei argues that "behaving responsibly" means not just "yoloing" hundreds of billions of dollars. He suggests that some competitors may not have "written down the spreadsheet" and don't fully grasp the existential risks they are taking with these massive, unhedged bets on infrastructure.




For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years. The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to the stars. It is only possible to travel to Mars when the planets align every 26 months (six month trip time), whereas we can launch to the Moon every 10 days (2 day trip time). This means we can iterate much faster to complete a Moon city than a Mars city. That said, SpaceX will also strive to build a Mars city and begin doing so in about 5 to 7 years, but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster.






The Adolescence of Technology: an essay on the risks posed by powerful AI to national security, economies and democracy—and how we can defend against them: darioamodei.com/essay/the-adol…
