Piyush Sharma

#Nifty50 (ex-financials) began trading this month at about 30x F2027E (Mar) earnings. It’s headline obviously gets flattered by heavy weight of ‘Financials’. Take off outliers (#Eternal and #Grasim), and it comes to around 25x fairly optimistic (read ‘delusional’) underlying expectations. Unless one’s risk appetite has been thoroughly untethered from fundamentals, and one is sufficiently conditioned to confuse price momentum with investment merit, headline #India remains undeniably rich. Arguably a bit less richer than September 2024, but remarkably rich nonetheless. Unless this corrects (and 15% drawdown won’t do it), make peace with losing slowly in real terms. An MoU to further negotiate between two warring sides in the Middle East does little to change this. Meanwhile, #DalalStreet has never met a narrative it couldn’t dress up as opportunity. Trust it to do so again!

While we hadn't dealt much with individual investors and SFOs previously, that has been our focus area since early 2022 as we pivoted towards capital raising in India. What has been disturbing over this period isn't the risk at play. It's how little this set knows that they are carrying it. Most domestic "advisors" are not only not fiduciary in principle, but they also often aren't even competent enough to fake it. Indian wealth platforms are often just cereal aisles (with a private banker’s smile!). Excluding different sizes, even Target/Walmart are likely to have stocked around 60-70 cereals over the last 5 years. Many Indian banks and wealth management outfits would have also likely recommended (aka “approved”) 60+ strategies over that period. They essentially stock investment shelves for convenient and quick sells. Meanwhile, their addressable market (Indian individual investors) is largely financially illiterate/semi-literate. Accordingly, self-education isn't a nice-to-have — it's the only exit. If your advisor is only slightly less lost than you, get found yourself. If nothing else, we would strongly suggest remembering the following while evaluating investments: 1. The robos are crowding in! When passive (robot) advice often agrees with that of active (brick and mortar financial advisor), check whose payroll passive (robot) is on. 2. Actively run investment strategies are often built upon a process that isn’t underwritten by a machine. They need runways. If your horizon is under five years, save the fee and buy the index. 3. Drifting from an investment style is usually just FOMO with a mandate. Adaptability, in contrast, should reflect clear thesis that doesn’t detaches from the underlying principles. Drift is usually just trend chasing. 4. Stop extrapolating past records, particularly when they have less than 10 year legs on ‘em. There is more than enough evidence that strong short term outperformance rarely persists. Consider this - If outperformance (top quartile inclusion) were completely random, there is roughly a 25% chance that it would repeat itself in the next period. Yet, actual persistence within investing tracks close to or below that. No one is hitting every window, or even close to that. Over a decade, even a top quartile manager should have spent about a fifth of that decade’s rolling 3-yr periods in the bottom half. Essentially, if a strategy (without any style drift) outpaces in 65-75% of rolling 3-yr windows over >10 years, give it as much benefit of doubt (arguably more) in its lean period as you would give your loved one. You’ll still (as always) need to rely on luck though. Further, while you may not like to hear this, your own personal experience over a 3 or 5 year window within a strategy means nothing. Place that in fortunate/unfortunate bucket. Trust probabilities based on deep history! 5. Steer clear of bandwagoners. If you’ve heard an “advice” repeatedly, it’s likely because it’s an easy and quick sell. Highly likely then that you would be disappointed. 6. There is nothing wrong with SIPs. They don’t fail investors. Overselling certainty does. SIPs are simply a tool for disciplined investing. The idea isn’t wrong. Your expectation that it should outpace everything around you is at fault. They are supposed to deliver discipline, not destiny.

@jagograhakjago @ChairmanIba @nch1915 @consumerCOMPLNS - Been almost a month that my bank accounts are frozen and I am dealing with an incredibly slow an bureaucratic @AxisBank

I avoid tweeting on bad experiences, unless its incredibly harrowing. My ongoing experience with @AxisBank falls unequivocally in this bucket. My NRI bank account was frozen because of stale immigration documents. I spoke with my RM 10-11 days ago and he had suggested that I email NRI support team instead. So, I ended up emailing them updated immigration documents. Several days later (because apparently they don't work on holidays and weekends), they reverted and asked me to send an email for 1. email indemnity, and 2. Attested version of immigration docs. I did both. It's getting close to 2 weeks of back and forth and I can't make any transactions. Account remains frozen!

@AxisBankSupport @AxisBank Another 10 days have passed. They needed a CKYC form and that was shared 4 days ago. Accounts are still frozen!

Today, a new email with new set of requests have come. No one bothered for nearly 3 weeks. Accounts remain frozen. See below: Kindly note, on reviewing the document/s, we are unable to process your instruction for the below reason/s. Therefore, we request you to provide us with the revised form(s) / document(s) as mentioned below: 1. Enclosed Re-Kyc form is required. axis.bank.in/docs/default-s… 2. Self attested KYC documents are required. List of acceptable documents are available from page 5 - page 8 in the above provided link. 3. Under Dormancy activation section, dormant account number ending with XX6578 is required to be filled, along with the reason for not operating the account.

Isn’t the first time. Won’t be the last. ‘Spirit’ used to glorify deeply entrenched inefficiencies and inaction. 👏🏼

@sportss99 @naiyto_sol @tombogert Check this out - youtube.com/shorts/De64mit… 1. Purely accidental, 2. Both players going for the ball, 3. Reviewed in slow-mo. Juve got eliminated as a result.

@naiyto_sol @ps_tarheel @tombogert Premier League Ref weighing in

🇺🇸 USMNT head coach Mauricio Pochettino on Flo Balogun: “We were punished enough against Bosnia to play with 10 men for 30 minutes, in a decision that was unfair. It’s not because I’m the head coach of the USA… I think 99.9% of people agree it was an unfair red card.”

@eldnaht @tombogert just a guideline. Not a 'rule'.

@ps_tarheel @tombogert “Normal speed should used to determine the intensity of the offense” that did not happen.

@eldnaht @tombogert 'guideline' is not the same as a 'rule'

@ps_tarheel @tombogert “ Specifically they challenged the use of slow motion instant replay to give the red card, which they argued violated FIFA rules”

@FIFAcom - Proud of hosting the tournament yet ?

@AxisBankSupport Another day has passed. My RM says will take another 3 days. This is unbelievable!

In an Indian judicial system that has a clear (and inexplicable) paucity of judges (alongside often compromised law enforcement), it is highly unlikely that such ‘hit and run’ cases 1. Reach the trial stage, and 2. End up in convictions. Unless the law clearly states that ‘hit and run’ is equivalent to ‘voluntary homicide’, why would anyone stop after running someone ever? #SarthakMattoo #HitAndRun

MoU to ‘discuss’ the #deal IS NOT the same as a deal announcement. #IranWar‌ Negotiations to finalize the deal will be held over the next 2 months. What we have is essentially a ceasefire.