William Ntim
3.2K posts
@purepathwill
Futurist | Builder @govora_ai
This is my sixth conversation with @GavinSBaker. As always with Gavin, the conversation covers a lot of ground, but we spend the most time on watts and wafers. We discuss: - Why the wafer shortage may prevent an AI bubble - Data centers in space (reframed) - Elon's Terafab and the new chip companies challenging Nvidia - Usage-based pricing - The disaggregation of GPUs - DRAM, frontier tokens, and open source Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 7:55 Anthropic and OpenAI Valuations 12:58 Watts, Wafers, and Infrastructure 14:39 Orbital Compute and Data Centers in Space 22:49 Avoiding the AI Bubble 28:26 Terafab and the Future of US Manufacturing 32:16 Returns to the Frontier 37:23 Continual Learning 42:03 New Chip Companies 48:52 Extending GPU Lifespans and Private Credit 51:22 The Application Layer 57:32 The Token Path and Open-Source Dynamics 1:01:37 Cybersecurity 1:05:46 Diversity Breakdown 1:11:59 Assessing the Big Tech Players in AI 1:19:02 Geopolitics, Personal Safety, and the AI Horizon
My longterm $NVDA thesis now hinges on the future growth of their Physical AI portfolio, where I expect them to have a dominant market share of chips in Physical AI products from OEMs that aren't $TSLA. Furthermore I expect a lot of grown from their edge AI/Local AI range of chips where their main competition there will be $AAPL. With regards to the datacenter, I believe they will continue to do well, but with the majority of their datacenter revenue coming from just 6 companies, half of which have made remarkable gains with their own custom chips (TPU, Tranium etc.), it is no longer a given that the majority of announced AI capex spend will go to Nvidia GPUs.
The man who told you last year the CPU AI inflection was coming just told you today what next frontier is. You should probably pay attn
Turns out this time actually is different.
As the recently expanded partnership with @AnthropicAI demonstrates, @SpaceX is offering AI compute as a service at significant scale. We are in discussions with other companies to do the same. Over time, especially with orbital data centers, we expect to serve AI at extremely high scale.
My advice to the younger generation. Question every system. Marriage, education, employment, contemporary businesses,tax ,politics , police, law and order , religion, social dynamics . Dnt follow and obey blindly it doesn't work.
Turns out all we had to do was build better computers.
