push the needle

What if we took a 160 acre golf course and repurposed it for housing and saved 95% of all the trees? Now you have 40,000 people living on two future light rail stops with a wonderful tree-lined dense walkable neighborhood

@benmaritz come to bluesky

Good article from the Stranger about upcoming reforms to recent landlord tenant laws. The issue is that it’s not commonly understood that affordable housing providers really do rely on timely rent payments to survive, even if those rents are below market and even if they are operating properties built with government subsidies. Eviction moratoria and court delays almost always translate to lost rents- it’s basically impossible to collect back rent from a low income tenant as they tend to be “judgement proof” by definition (they earn less than the amount below which a judge will not order a judgement). We do not have a public housing system where losses just accrue to the taxpayer in some benign way. We have a privatized affordable system under which large one time grants (in the form of low interest loans or tax credit equity) are given to a private developer (usually a non profit), in exchange for below market rents offered to low income people. Those subsidies are always combined with a normal mortgage (sometimes in the form of bonds) which must be repaid. The size of that mortgage is tied to the expected rents and operating costs. There is a small margin of error, but if profits drop below that, the mortgage cannot be repaid and the bank can foreclose on the property. This is what is happening to affordable housing in Seattle now. Last year the city had to use funds earmarked for new construction to bail out distressed non profits. This year the city is likely to choose to tighten up the rules that have allowed some people to avoid paying rent for long periods. If you believe in a functioning affordable housing system, you should support this.

@markasaurus @contractorkeith @DanielKayHertz @bobbyfijan yes i agree. its a shame we had to drag me on a shit website like X and have me get concerned DMs from developers annoyed by this behavior for us to find common ground

@pushtheneedle @contractorkeith @DanielKayHertz @bobbyfijan This all also points to the need for building code reform to make building small apartment buildings cheaper (single stair reform etc)

@DanielKayHertz @markasaurus @contractorkeith @bobbyfijan @HousingStudies woah hey no way dont threaten him with evidence? i live in a neighborhood that is building $2M SFHs and also building $700K townhomes (6 on a lot) its happening Mark. land acq is the same for them too

@markasaurus @pushtheneedle @contractorkeith @bobbyfijan I’m not sure if it’s online but @HousingStudies did a great report a few years ago showing where SFH/condo costs intersected such that a SFH was more profitable to build than a three flat (and vice versa) in Chicago if both were allowed

@MikeFellman @bobbyfijan well they are in seattle. give or take. every home thats a tear down is selling for about the same price here and this is what happens, new home goes up thats super expensive or $700k townhomes go up

@pushtheneedle @bobbyfijan If you think land prices are fixed regardless of what is allowed to be built on it you don't know jack shit about real estate.

These two housing graphics bother more than any other than bounce around the internet. They are just wrong … the price of a lot is dependent on what is allowed and what is required. It’s not fixed.

@bobbyfijan i guess the real world development out here is wrong. ill let them know

@pushtheneedle If they are all selling for the same price … then it means that only ONE of those forms is the highest and best use Obviously increasing the density to allow a highrise in East Texas is irrelevant to land prices

Upzoning increases the price of land … and so does reducing parking minimums It’s 20%-30% of total project costs.

@brucef 6

@pushtheneedle How many townhomes did they build on the site?

lets dig into it more a run down old house by me sold for $800k and they build new townhomes that all cost $700k also, same neighborhood, a house sold for $800k and is now a $1M ADU and a $1.7M single family home any questions anyone?

@DanielKayHertz @markasaurus @bobbyfijan thats not anecdotal, thats called real world experience. you sound like you know your stuff. just like me! arrogant architects love arguing the weeds like its crit hour. the 5 story apt could go to $500/sf and $2M profit and the homes would still cost LESS than $900k point made!

@markasaurus @bobbyfijan Are construction costs higher on the six plex, or just the larger multifamily? I feel like anecdotally it would just be the latter in Chicago

oh wait what would i know?

@bobbyfijan sweet. two windows

A 750 square foot apartment With a space for extra storage, a desk ... or a bassinet

@bobbyfijan no way theyll cost way more than i have ever said. youre always right

Starter homes can only be “affordable” if they are smaller … 1050sf, 2BR/1BA

@bobbyfijan shit floor plan

Left: 800sf 1BR+Walk-In Closet Right: 750sf 1BR+Office

@markasaurus @DanielKayHertz @bobbyfijan no it wouldnt and no it wouldnt. do your own graphic

@DanielKayHertz @bobbyfijan The six plex could be done without an elevator and in type V framing like a single family home. The five story would definitely have an elevator and would probably have a concrete parking podium.

@YoCuddles @bobbyfijan my bad i am currently enraged and misread your post

@pushtheneedle @bobbyfijan Wait what do you think I'm saying? I'm saying we should upzone, we should build tall, what position are you taking here?

@YoCuddles @bobbyfijan NO SHIT thats my point

@pushtheneedle @bobbyfijan The empirical evidence is that upzoning, allowing people to build vertically for multiple families, makes cities more affordable. There isn't a graphic you can pull up that negates that, but feel free to try?

@markasaurus @JohnGonzalesLA1 make the profit $1M. scale it all up. it still costs LESS do you not see the fucking point?

And then as @JohnGonzalesLA1 points out absolutely nobody is going to go through the risk and brain damage of developing a 5 story apartment building for the same profit as a single family home!

@FifthCrichton @JohnGonzalesLA1 @bobbyfijan hes a liar anyway. i didnt block him

@JohnGonzalesLA1 @bobbyfijan It doesn't say they do? It just says what construction costs were. Obviously the final price is going to depend on the market, but bringing construction costs per unit down is the only way for a city to encourage construction of units.

just came by to say bobby is wrong and can kiss my ass. see yall on bluesky