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JSV
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JSV
@pvpandroids
God first. Seeking truth. Uncovering patterns and insights beyond perception. Building in tech.
Dimension 12 Katılım Kasım 2023
569 Takip Edilen189 Takipçiler

@cursor_ai and composer 2.5 the best thing that has happened this year.
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Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it:
1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck.
The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely:
Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet.
If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years.
As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source.
As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production.
But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years.
You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers.
That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics.
It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it.
But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power.
Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs.
2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes.
You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures.
That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over.
There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers.
If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures.
All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers.
If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you?
Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players.
3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this:
$SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027.
It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027.
$AEHR which volume ramps after qualification.
$LPK that volume ramps after qualification.
This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently.
As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year):
$LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components.
This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO:
People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections.
This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company.
Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward.
Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion.
It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs.
I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14.
Now it's $140
I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30".
Now it's $170
I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45.
Now it's $170.
I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year.
And now I'm long on $SIVE.
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If true you can still front run the crypto market. Buy everything today!
Polymarket@Polymarket
JUST IN: Trump says his call with Netanyahu “went very well” & a peace deal will be announced shortly.
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JSV retweetledi

@elonmusk @JeffBezos He also mentioned that someone making $75k a year should not be paying $12k in taxes.
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We are investigating unauthorized access to GitHub’s internal repositories. While we currently have no evidence of impact to customer information stored outside of GitHub’s internal repositories (such as our customers’ enterprises, organizations, and repositories), we are closely monitoring our infrastructure for follow-on activity.
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@PhinTotten @coinbase I don’t understand why keep crypto on these platforms. Crypto was made to detach from the control of government. Send all your funds to self custody wallets.
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Also yes
This is literally from @coinbase
They threatened to lock my account if I didn’t give them answers

Phin@PhinTotten
Coinbase is actually the fucking feds Sometimes a white boy needs to travel Let me live my life
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@SenatorSlama Lol, wasn’t Elon just bragging about taking losses to provide Wi-Fi on airlines? Now we see where those losses are being subsidized from 😂
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Generally, I love Starlink. It’s fast, reliable, and my husband and I run our law firm from home with it. HOWEVER- it’s monopolized internet in rural areas.
Today, we received notice our internet bill is going up another $500/year. Don’t like it? Too bad. You have no other options. Nebraska gave up $300 million in federal rural internet funding for fiber because “Starlink fixed it.”
This was a mistake that will cost Nebraskans dearly in the long run.

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In the Name of God
The official X account of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (#PGSA) is now live.
Follow us for real‑time updates on the #Hormuz_Strait operations and latest developments.
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@erla221942 Maybe 420 but at some point, equities are going to correct hard
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Buying ZEC at 600 is like buying BTC at 124,000. Pretty sure you get 380 in the next couple of months. Will delete if wrong.
Ansem@blknoiz06
buying $ZEC at $600 is like buying bitcoin at $600
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We should federally tax Tokens at the Provider level.
Not a lot. Less than 50c per million tokens.
It will accomplish 4 things (at least )
1. It will push the big AI players to optimize tokenization, caching , routing and localization
Which will
2. Reduce energy usage. Saving them in energy costs more than what they paid in tax and reducing strain created by the growth in energy consumption
Which will
3. Generate maybe 10 billion dollars a year to start, but over the next ten years could grow 30x to 100x
Which will
4. Create a source of funding to pay down the federal debt or deploy, in response to the things AI brings that we don’t expect or don’t like
At some point the models will pass it on to customers. Of course. That’s ok. Customers will have the ability to choose between providers. Or to do everything using open source models locally.
Thoughts ?
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