Quartz Project

I'm getting two vaccines next week: Tdap and shingles. The Tdap because Kate's family has a newborn and we're visiting. Shingles for the potential longevity benefits. Data we're looking at: 1. Lower Alzheimer risk with vaccination in 1.6 million people, 8 year follow up, age 65+ + Tdap/Td: 30% lower relative risk + Shingles: 25% lower + Pneumococcal: 27% lower 2. Slower biological aging from shingles vaccination in 3,884 people, age 70+ Modest but significant improvements in inflammation, epigenetic and transcriptomic aging, and composite biological age. Molecular signals strongest within 3 years; inflammation benefits emerged later. 3. Better outcomes after breakthrough shingles in 38,092 people, age 50+, median 3.6y follow up In adults who developed shingles, prior vaccination was linked to: + 41% lower all-cause mortality + 21% lower MACE (MI, stroke, PE, sudden cardiac death) + 16% lower dementia risk Note: all three studies are observational. They show association, not causation. A randomized controlled trial on longevity outcomes is not feasible here as you can't randomize people to skip vaccines for years. The signal is consistent across independent large cohorts, which strengthens confidence, but the possibility of healthy vaccine bias exists in all three. People who stay current on vaccines tend to have better health behaviors overall. I find the mechanistic case for shingles specifically compelling. VZV reactivation drives neuro inflammation, and vaccination appears to blunt that cascade which is why we weight this evidence more heavily than the numbers alone.

Let’s be fair for a second here: isn’t Trump only viable option right now to order a second, this time very extensive, attack on Iran to bring it on its knees before it can retaliate? With stocks at ATH and crude oil nowhere close to ATH, I can see how he might feel there is a market buffer to carry on with this plan and stomach some brief and intense panic confident it can all quickly recover as soon as the US manages to successfully take control of the Strait of Hormuz back, re establish its strong military influence in the region and perhaps even take possession of Iran’s enriched uranium. If this plan is successful, the market will be flying high into November mid term elections and Trump won’t need any sort of approval from Congress in about a month to formally establish war powers. This time around, GCC countries will also likely join US military efforts actively to deal with Iran threat once and for all. What are the odds of success here? No one knows what’s the real state of Iran’s military and willingness to counterattack hard. Its threat of mutual destruction in the region has been so far an effective negotiation tool but putting that into action might be a whole different story because if they end up on the losing side the country might end up like Iraq with what will remain of its deeply damaged whole economy, especially ample oil reserves, effectively under foreign control. However, it should be acknowledged that no military analyst expect Iran to successfully endure the first wave of military strikes and end up in even a stronger position, geopolitically speaking, compared to the period before the 28th of February. This might make Iran confident to engage a second military confrontation to strengthen its gains even further if they remain successful. One thing is sure: Trump doesn’t have the option to patiently wait for US blockade to be effective and choke Iran’s economy. The longer the Strait of Hormuz stays shut the greater the damages to the global economy, especially US allies like Europe and Japan that don’t have enough SPR to keep shielding their countries for much longer. While traders still hang on the hope everything can be solved through peace negotiations, it is clear that isn’t possible anymore after the last conditions put forward by Iran are even worse than the initial ones. It looks like nobody is preparing for a showdown of very uncertain outcome while the truth is the showdown might start in any moment

TWO KINGS. 👑

Oil futures are literally saying: "We are just waiting for the first rocket to fly to break loose."

"Canada is in a very weak position within CUSMA, whether we want to admit it or not. Mexico is likely to secure a deal with the U.S. first, again, leaving Canada to return to the table, make concessions it initially resisted—including granting greater access to its dairy market."

Caroline Elliot says she will ban land acknowledgments in schools & government. But her campaign team is composed of a former BC Liberal left-wing staffer and imported strategists from Ontario and Quebec who support Doug Ford. Do you trust her?

Drone warfare has reached such a level that many fighters have lost hope of escaping or resisting. For example, the final strike on the barracks is terrifying.