Radu | Linx

@antoniogm In DeFi we've got market JTD (collateral price to zero) and issuer JTD (yield-bearing wrapper to zero because the entity behind it blew up, got exploited, scammed ,etc.) I think the second one is essentially not modeled right now and it's the one that keeps hurting people.

Crypto is going to find out the hard way that it's horribly behind when it comes to risk modeling (I'm a former credit quant...the field is behind what the state of the art was 20 years ago). It'll learn one blow-up at a time. Want to make a fortune in defi? Create a dashboard that shows DV01 (to offchain rate moves), JTD (pivoted by underlying asset), correlation delta (for correlation across assets)...and for fuck's sake, time to have a tradable credit spread for vault curators and asset issuers (to both model counterparty risk and hedge against it). We're in caveman-land right now. Crypto's general tendency to YOLO everything just isn't good enough anymore.

Linx App just got better ⚡ • Improved dashboard — redesigned for a clearer overview of your assets, positions, and activity in one place • Easier onboarding — a smoother, more intuitive flow to help new users get started faster • Bug fixes — resolving issues reported by the community • Overall improvements — quicker load times and smoother navigation Built for a better experience on @alephium

@Arvolear why do you think that’s the case? You get parallelism and stateless verification basically for free, which account-based chains keep having to re-engineer with L2s and state expiry. Yes you have a trade-off with developer UX, but that’s solved with better tooling.

We will probably never see a new UTXO-based chain launched again.

xALPH might just make ALPH the first yield-bearing L1 PoW token in existence (correct me if I'm wrong). Liquid staking just hit testnet — staked ALPH stays liquid and usable in DeFi. And yes, you'll be able to supply xALPH on @linx_labs to loop that yield 👀

@0xslayerrrr They’re expanding in Indonesia as well. Good analysis

for all the boba and tea enjoyers, you've probably seen or tried Chagee $CHA quick context (for the uninformed): it's a premium tea chain out of China - think of it as a more branded, higher-end version of your classic milk tea/boba shop why i got interested: every outlet i've been to lately has been packed with line - in Singapore at least i checked the stock couple days ago... and it's down ~70% from ATH so i got curious and got down the rabbit hole what i found: a franchise-driven consumer business with strong unit economics - LTM revenue: ~$1.8B revenue - ~20% net margins (very rare for F&B) - 7,338 stores (+25.9% YoY) across china (7,076) and overseas (262) - ~12-18 month store payback period - low store closure rates on top of that: - trading at ~9x forward P/E - ~60% of market cap is cash Chagee has about RMB 9.1B in net cash on the balance sheet, thats roughly $1.25B USD. the entire market cap is around $2B as of writing, if you strip that out you are roughly paying $750M for the operating business a business that did roughly ~$345M LTM in net income last year right now the actual operating business is being valued at roughly ~2x LTM EV/EBITDA (honestly, ridiculous) Comps: to put this into perspective: the closest peers are - Mixue and Guming - Chagee - ~2x LTM EV/EBITDA, 97% franchised, 19% net margin, ~19% LTM revenue growth - Mixue - ~15x LTM EV/EBITDA, 99% franchised, 18% net margin, ~17% LTM revenue growth - Guming - ~25x LTM EV/EBITDA, 99% franchised, 17% net margin, ~19% LTM revenue growth it is also trading ~15% FCF yield on market cap what does that mean? it means the business is generating cash equal to ~15% of the company's value every year so why is it down so much? 3 things: 1. same-store sales are declining (~20%-28% lower GMV at existing stores) --> expanded aggressively from 3,000 stores to 6,400 in 2 years causes traffic splitting, demand did not actually collapse. total GMV is still growing 2. china consumer demand is weaker due to the rise of more competition --> margins aren't collapsing and they are expanding internationally 3. business is concentrated in one dominant category - tea latte/milk tea-style products (1 SKU drives ~91% of GMV) --> thats focus. Luckin built $10B+ on a signature latte. so why now? 1. cash balance gives real downside protection 2. franchise model is proven and margins are still strong 3. international expansion become the next leg of growth - singapore, malaysia, thailand and the US. if they can replicate even part of the China playbook overseas, thats a huge upside my take: - downside is covered by cash + profitability - upside is growing store count, GMV and market realizing this is not a broken business

@hoeflatoor Great read, you should write more. Sounds like a society that needs to learn how to live beautifully as opposed to valuing number go up. Sounds like Singapore needs a Renaissance

The crux of this issue is language, culture, and thought - not money or space. The language that Singaporean culture is built on worships the idea of fiat progress as the main goal. As such, everything is viewed within the lens of "bank account go up/down". When a society has calcified into this belief, no amount of monetary spending by the government can solve the issue. They are in a deadlock with themselves, with the beast that Temasek Inc. created. Fundamental policy issues have led to this, be it the language campaigns that got rid of dialects and uprooted current generations from being able to connect with their past (another driver for low birth rates), to the "Stop at Two" campaign. We are a majority Han country - as such, we are +10 IQ, +10 social conformity, -10 risk taking -10 love/happiness/romance (we have a deficit in the genes for soul and expression). Inevitably the other races like the Malays and Indians get dragged into our psychological orbit by osmosis, and the continued push of inflation and modernity's obsession with more leads to the decreasing of birth rates. Religion and faith are big drivers of desiring children and increasing the birth rate. However, the secular religious experiment of Singapore has largely failed, with the implicit religion of our nation being the rat race and a chase for more and more. The reason why the Malays are more impervious to the devil's trickery is partially the lower average IQ, but also the deep connection they have to their extended families. The Chinese have far less familial connections, and are more isolated as a race. While the majority of top-performing Indians in our nation are Christian/Catholics, they too are buying the belief that education above all else creates a society that views children as a penalty and punishment. There are multiple ways to fix the birth rates, we might call it, "The Fertility Question", to nod at previous visionaries. A radical reset of a universal endowment would incentivise a brief spike, but ultimately would fall as inflation continues to reduce the value of such a bonus. Women are the deciders of which male genes are passed down to the next generation. In the case of the high-IQ Singaporean female, university educated (foreign uni, if upper-middle class) - to find a male suitable of reproduction is a fool's errand. 2 years of NS hampers their economic standing, and by the time they have caught up and begin to fulfil their potential (early/late 30s) - the damage is already done. The idea of the "wall" for births as well persists due to our ministers being specialized organisms, like worker ants specified to simply trim one part of the poplar tree, while other ants fulfil their roles in the anthill. A reasonable man, with an open enough mind, would understand that today, women in our nation WILL give birth in the right circumstances, and HE has to create those circumstances - but we are not governed by reasonable men. We are governed by the ghost of a dictator watching over the shoulder of menial laborers, where their thought processes revolve around election numbers and approval, and not the Will To Power. The Iron Rice Bowl produces rot over time, because when grains continually appear for the holder - they do not wash the mold, the dirt, the detritus from it. The wall is reversible, women can have families deep into their 40s-50s with the right technology and health guidance, but our medical system is so fossilised that to even suggest this might get you thrown into IMH. All of our current problems can be fixed - it is that we are trapped in a loop that refuses to fix them for the psychological price to pay is too much. The inability to go against the tribe is why we are where we are. So many policies could be enacted overnight to begin boosting birth rates. For one, the shaming of wealth for the masses must begin. Plutocrats and wise merchants will know it is not for them - there is always a loophole for the mercantile man! But the only way Chinese-based societies move is through negative feedback loops. Undoubtedly, this can change, BUT we are in dire times. If a family, a man, a woman, is unmarried and without child and has ample resources, he must be maligned and mocked more than the NSF with no means or power. We must raise up the value of children and families, we must hold up the ideals of sacrifice, of building for the future higher. A complete radical shift of culture and thought must take place to solve this issue otherwise, more radical solutions (female immigration visas) will have to take place. The Great Replacement in Singapore is already at hand. I am shocked that the government does not consider raising the population of Whites in the nation from where it is now, to an enclave that rivals the Indians and Malays. The West is largely still out of order, and may only repair itself in the coming decade. This gives us 5-10 years to easily immigrate the English speaking, higher-earning, more risk-taking population that has escaped out of Europe, and undoubtedly some will be hypergamous men leaving us with plenty of Eurasians. But no matter - the state can and easily will take care of these kids. We have the reserves. Much better to spend them on bastard children than to lose them in another FTX scenario. There are also huge pockets of the world where 2nd/3rd world nations with genetic material compatible with Singapore's society exist. The concept of a female immigration visa will inevitably become a parliamentary debate in 10-15 years (Hoeflatoor frontruns as per usual, again), because of Singapore's soft power growing alongside Chinamaxxing and our modern airport, our safe streets, our stable society. We seek to hand out more PRs next year. Why not open the floodgates and bring in a swathe of women from Central/Eastern Europe where their GDP per capita is a fraction of ours? Why not bring in the South American women, whose bodies are built for a tropical climate and thus far more relaxed than our Hansect majority? We have already transmorgified into a globalistic society that was not the case 60 years ago. We might as well go the whole damn mile. A close friend of mine married a Mexican - I have never seen a happier (and fattening) man thus far. If we accept that our society must be moulded, let's go all the way. True eugenics. True world-making. Huxley and Darwin would be proud. This solves the male/female dynamic where the man has to have more earning power, introduces a more open genome into the Singaporean bloodstream, and the subsequent mix may even bring forth the next LKY level genius to bring our nation forward. But this sort of solution is mocked and laughed at, said impossible - but still, the birth rates continue to drop. No innovation. No progress. No real thought. Loops upon loops upon loops. In a way, our governmental system functions like a swarm of LLMs repeating each other's prompts to each other, and the hallucinations are beginning. The issue of a Han-based society is that the women judge on finances and power, not on soft skills and romance. A Hokkien businessman will spend 100k on a sugar baby that does nothing for him, when $300 in Brazil would have bought him love that his soul has never experienced. This is also why the first airline to bridge South America and Asia will cause an existential crisis to the women of Singapore - an average Carioca woman commands far more love and affection than our local cbs could. It would be like letting loose a pack of ravenous dingos into an island of dodos. Considering how we walk as a society, with our hips, waists, and backs locked in existential, psychological pain - it is what it is. When a culture cannot reproduce, the culture has failed. We are a tiny nation teetering on the brink of extinction, and our rulers do not understand the ways in which we can fix it, albeit with out-of-the-box thinking. But the Singaporean politician cannot think out of the box - he does not even know the box exists! The Truman Show, but on Oxley Road. The Kiasu mind and its consequences have been a disaster for the Singaporean people. Because we live in fear, we cannot reproduce. We are trapped on a tiny island, where our cost of living continues to creep ever higher, where we are gaslit into believing we have one of the greatest passports on the planet, yet the average sinkie cannot leave. A humid hellscape where if you lift a finger to express anger at the uber-rich, you will be hung. A man turned into a docile pig, walking a cage lined by trees imported from Brazil. Yet LKY was already replacing the flora with other tropical organisms. He knew! Why not we simply start bringing in the fauna as well. So simple. So genius. Yet, so maligned and misunderstood (me). For a population to reproduce, it must believe that a better future exists or that they are reproducing to outlive an enemy. Yin and Yang. But our politicians have bought climate change hook, line, and sinker, letting its devious claws hook into the younger populace - I don't want to have kids, the environment! The space! The money! The population is not to blame, nor are the women - the blame is on the cultural system as a whole, the organism, the way it thinks and speaks. We have cast a spell on ourselves, where we believe that the only form of success is climbing up the ladder. That is the only form of success, our children turning into PSLE top scorers. We do not view life as sanctimonious and beauty and an obligation to bring forth - it is to be feared, to be worried about, to be stressed over. This trapped mindset is why we cannot breed. Too much higher thinking for the future, not enough relaxing and enjoyment to make love, to conceive, to dream of better days and nights. Increasing female dating competition will force the lowering of standards and cultural shift (female immigration) - but unlikely. Changing our cultural dialectic towards children, towards the idea of "success" as a whole will solve the issue - but unlikely. We are staring at the iceberg of death on our tiny ship, charging towards it ever closer, and the clock is ticking. To fight against the tide of a psychological mass of millions is nigh impossible. It will require a Man of Superior Will to turn the odds. I shall pray for us all today. God be with you!

We just improved the swap experience on Linx App ⚡ • Price impact warnings • Token $ value display • UI improvements • Bug fixes Making swaps clearer and easier to use on @alephium

1/7. Most ETH DeFi farmers keep chasing the same opportunities. But there’s a quieter play happening on Alephium that many are ignoring. Here’s a simple strategy to farm points on Linx App using capital you already have on Ethereum. A short guide 🧵

Your vote matters — @alephium 👇 What tokens would you like to deposit or lend on Linx App next? 👀 Vote below and suggest others in the comments 💬

Overcrowded stablecoin opportunities: - Consumer neobank - Stablecoin orchestration - Merchant accounts Uncrowded stablecoin opportunities: - Non-USD stablecoins - Onchain FX - Programmable credit (e.g. trade financing)

@defi_naly Well done, especially on the planning part. The urge to one-shot is real for many users without coding experience.

@dkubb @cryptohound666 @banteg Same experience, I'd go as far as saying it's one of the best choices for LLMs

The phrase “literally unusable” means it can’t work at all. I’ve experienced nothing close to this and have seen maybe 400 to 500k loc of rust code produced over the last 6 months. It all compiles, passes the formatter, linter and even has good test coverage. None of the frontier models has had any issues at all.

after years of reading rust shilling, i’m very surprised how unfit rust is for the agents era. literally unusable. inb4 bunny you just need to feed the agent a literal book of best practices to get a simple program to compile. languages shouldn’t be that smartass

@notrustverif @alephium @MiniJudie Hell yeah!

Alephium World just got an update with enhanced @alephium node detection capabilities! Big shoutout to @MiniJudie for providing the code that made this improvement happen. Link in comment

@banteg I’d say the opposite, it’s my main choice to use with LLMs

seems like rust is too big brain since even the latest sota llms struggle with it. is the language too implicit? is the goal to make smart programmers feel good about themselves or to produce working programs?

Last chance @alephium 3× Points on USDT deposits ends tomorrow. Earn APY. Earn triple Points. Share of 20M $LINX.

@ivangbi_ @ethereumfndn Congrats and good luck!

TLDR: I joined @ethereumfndn as DeFi Coordinator 1] I got introduced to DeFi back in 2019 and stuck to it ever since. As narratives appeared and faded away, my general belief in DeFi stayed. I think today, more than ever, Ethereum is the right place to grow DeFi further. I'd like to help make this vision a reality 🙏

@goatv_bk need to check @linx_labs on app.linxlabs.org, offering 20% APR on USDT right now and on PoW chain

@SalsaTekila Good but all high valuations. Check @linx_labs at 15M fdv, season 1 on-going

We’re now live on 🦙 @DefiLlama — Track our TVL, follow our growth, and watch what we’re building on @alephium 🔗 Check us out on defillama.com/protocol/linx-…

@afiqsazlan Focus on systems engineering, this is a skill that’ll pay off big time. Know how all the parts work together and leverage AI to build complex systems.

I'm rethinking my career as a software engineer. The more I use AI in my daily work, the more I don't think doubling down on coding is the way forward. I do feel I'm doing more product management, but I don't think that's the way forward either. Should I consider AI/ML science or engineering? Can anyone recommend books that offer a framework for figuring out where to pivot your career?