Raf3

Starting 2025 with $ 35k. meh, such lame. Wish to 3~4x by this year 🤞🙏

$BTC update: Now that it's confirmed that Bitcoin only deviated above the range highs (we're back inside the range), I'm sticking to the previous BTC Sunday update analysis. The retrace of the Liquidity Pool at $71k is probable. A retest & rejection at $79k is possible.

$HYPE just hit $50 for the first time since October 2025. Reasons behind this pump: - Coinbase USDH deal resulted in a 20%-25% revenue increase. - Goldman Sachs disclosed a position in Hyperliquid DAT ($PURR). - 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF has gone live. - $50M+ in monthly revenue, and 99% of this is used for buybacks. - SEC planning to allow stock trades on the blockchain 24/7

$BTC / $USD - Update We are seeing a nice pump, but be careful with FOMO here. Wait for the reclaim of $77,700 - $77,800 before looking to get in. I will be looking for shorts on rejections personally. Lot's of liquidity sat below us.

BTC No Spot Buying, Weak Reaction BTC reacted toward $77.4K, but spot CVD is still at -$421M. OI is declining and Coinbase Premium remains negative. This move looks more like position unwinding than strong spot demand. Risk remains until BTC holds above $78K. #BTC

$BTC No need to fear, the monthly open is here. I’m expecting a test of 77.4K on the LTF, followed by 78.5K. After that, attention shifts to the CME gap. From there, I’m looking for acceptance back into the range before a deeper sweep into the 74Ks.

$BTC Price continues holding above the monthly open while open interest keeps cooling off. At the same time, funding rates remain positive, showing that traders are still leaning bullish despite momentum slowing down overall. The decline in open interest suggests that leverage is getting flushed out of the market, which generally creates a healthier structure for price. However, the sharp decrease in spot volume also shows that conviction behind the current bounce remains relatively weak for now. As long as BTC holds above the monthly open while open interest continues cooling off, another push higher remains possible.

$BTC bounce is lacking any real strength. Spot volume is in decline along with Coinbase Bitcoin Premium. IMO, once OI resets, BTC will reverse its entire short-term rally.

Longed $BTC here. As described in my Bitcoin analysis this morning, we're trading in a strong long-POI so I waited on my trigger. I shared my Breakout terminal below so you can see my exact entry and stop-loss. After sweeping all internal range liquidity, the sweep-candle closed strong and I entered on the 15M engulfing. Price pumped beautifully so I took profits and kept a % open as a potential runner. Imo winning on Monday is winning the week because you collect risk-money for the rest of the week. Still loving the trading experience and execution on @breakoutprop.

$BTC update: ✅

$BTC Interesting. Bybit’s taker buy/sell ratio just saw a significant spike, showing that aggressive buyers are stepping into the market again. What makes this interesting is that these spikes have been relatively rare over the past few months, especially during periods of weakness. A rising taker buy/sell ratio means market participants are becoming more aggressive on the buy side and are willing to pay market price to enter positions. In most cases, this reflects growing short term conviction and increasing momentum. If this behavior continues while BTC holds above the current support region, there’s a decent chance we see another push toward the highs.

$BTC Bitcoin exactly tapped our marked support level at $76.7k after rejecting from the 200-day EMA at $82k. Expecting a small bounce before losing this 50-day EMA support.

$BTC is still in the Wyckoff distribution phase. The bottom isn't in yet.

$btc shorts Price should lead to new lows, added a local short Alright, nice journey so far on our shorts we caught from the top at 82.3k. Before we get into the post, quick summary of my directional bias. As you know, I am a trader, no a permabear or perma bull. And to stay successful (in reality and in live time, not just on paper or in hindsight like most of X), it requires monitoring all timeframes, so see below of my current stance: Weekly: Bullish (Low is in at 60k) Daily: Bearish (Aiming for 75k, with shorts from 82.3k) Hourly: Bearish (Added local exposure, looking to ride out the trend to the end). Quite a lot of targets have been hit and per consequence, we have taken a lot of TP's as we hit targets, leaving us the remainder for final targets, still looking for new lows. And now that we finally flipped the W POI, I have no interest attempting any local and internal longs anymore trying to catch 1000-1200 points bounces as we discussed before, and instead, extend the targets of the shorts until the very end of the trend and our long and imo not gone target of 75k. More-over, given that our current short is TP'd a fair chunk and given the lower two timeframe biases both being bearish, I'm adding some local exposure on top here. We tried to capture a long towards a lower high once, that worked out. We tried it a second time, that failed, whilst the short just kept paying. So now that we are indeed below the W POI and all lower high retests are done, and now that we also bounced a bit off our last TP and the local high leverage weekend volume is getting compromised, that's a green flag for me to expect lower. Some confirmation to the sentiment and order flow, which is confirmed to be slightly frothy throughout the weekend and mostly positioned long. Although we're not quite there yet and did have an unusual large amount of long liquidations for a weekend with some CVD aggression of large positions picking them up, if we extend that local forth further, I'm getting interested in adding to the short position. But because the market still wants long, the market makers likely punish them first so it should bounce us above the weekly POI before new lows and my suspicions are those liquidated positions are just going to be recaptured again. So in short, new lows is what I am looking for, not getting excited for longs here, just staying on the short side now for as long as possible in accordance with bias, holding current ones, adding exposure and keeping it aggressive until the trend ends, is the most logical move here going into the next week.

200D SMA 200D EMA ATH AVWAP Weekly FVG $BTC has a lot of resistance around the $82,000-$84,000 level. Do you think Bitcoin will break above this zone?

$BTC still has the massive sell wall at $81,250 level. Will Bitcoin break above this today?

$BTC Price is going after that huge sell wall sitting on Binance perps orderbooks for days now. It won't get pulled, likely gets filled.

$BTC update: Bitcoin is at the most important level. If it holds the range highs here, then it'll push towards the 1W50EMA at $84k-$85k. But a failure to hold this level could trigger a rotation back to the mid-range, potentially exposing range lows if momentum doesn't shift.

ALERT: IS A16Z STAKING $HYPE? a16z’s addresses have just moved $5M of HYPE. It was transferred through a confirmed a16z address, and eventually reached the address 0xdec, where it was transferred to staking balances. Is a16z staking HYPE?

the most vertically integrated player always wins. the point i want to make here is, in lieu of all these ai supercycle we are seeing, its analogous to $HYPE's success with its vertical intregration across the finance stack also, i believe we will see the winner for the AI super cycle being the one that wins on verticalization of the ai sector stack the ai stack consist of 3 components: apps, infra, semi we will see history rhymes in tech supercycles internet's biggest winner is $GOOG ~$3 trillion. near-monopoly in search. owns the crawlers, the index, the ads, the browser, the OS on half of mobile. deeply vertically integrated. mobile's biggest winner: $APPL ~$2.5 trillion. owns the chip (M-series, A-series), the OS, the hardware, the app store, the services layer. the most vertically integrated company in history. social's biggest winner: $META ~$2 trillion. dominant but lost roughly $1 trillion, some argue, by not owning the hardware layer. had to buy Oculus to catch up. less integrated. cloud's winner: nobody. $AMZN, Azure, GCP share it as an oligopoly. the least vertically integrated supercycle produced the least concentrated outcome. we have not see an AI winner yet and that AI's winner will be whoever is most vertically integrated. that's why its the race season to own semis + infra + model + application simultaneously Google owns TPUs, GCP, Gemini. Microsoft owns Azure, has deep OpenAI integration. Amazon owns custom silicon, AWS, Bedrock. Meta owns MTIA, Llama, the distribution. @OpenAI is the outlier, they own the model and the application but rent the infrastructure. That's the Microsoft relationship. Whether that's a strategic advantage (focus) or a structural weakness (dependency) is the defining question of the next five years. i believe $HYPE too will win similarly to how these hyperscalers win $GOOG $APPL $META $NDVA in trillions in market cap and its verticalization. history says so. bet accordingly.

Wallet(0xb5E4) linked to #a16z bought another 50,168 $HYPE($1.97M) 8 hours ago. Over the past month, the wallet has bought 1.64M $HYPE($69.43M) and is currently down over $6M. x.com/lookonchain/st…