@CostaCoffee Hi, will it be possible to use the app as normal in the new cafes you’re opening in Sainsbury’s?
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harry rag
3.2K posts
harry rag
@rag_harry
Keen sports bettor, mainly on football and rugby. Goal and try scorers a speciality,
Northern England Katılım Mayıs 2011
109 Takip Edilen148 Takipçiler
@rag_harry Actually considered Szob too. Certainly dont hate that, only thing that put me off was whether I was suffering from a bit of recency bias as he has had strong shot volume in games Ive watched recently.
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@AGSBets If you’re right (and I’m inclined to agree with you) then I’d say buying his goal minutes at 12 is even better value than the fixed odds price. I’ve had a small buy so I’ll be back to thank you or otherwise later! I’ve also started laying goalscorers which is going ok so far.
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@WilliamHill Having problems logging in and placing a bet. Multiple devices, still telling me I need to log in before I can place a bet even when I am apparently logged in. Any issue you’re aware of?
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@AnytimePicks365 I’d be interested to see if that holds up as the data sample grows. I see significant variance over 10,000 players from an anytime perspective but I’ve never tracked 1st. At the bigger odds there could still be a lot of randomness at play in a sample of 1000 bets.
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We do back both.
At around 1K bets we found the model was hitting FGS close to half the time, so the extra juice is worth the squeeze for us. The same spots we target for AGS tend to fit the FGS narrative overall as well.
We also shifted to a best-price approach once the Bet365 value dried up at the end of last season. Losing the void on benched players was definitely an issue. With FGS you still mostly get the void, which softens that risk a lot.
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Goalscorer betting means losing a lot on the way to profit.
A 10% ROI is the long-term goal.
AGS we aim to win 1 in every 3.
FGS we aim to win 3 in every 20.
We rarely price someone under 2.00. That means we don’t give them even a 50% chance to hit. Value betting is backing players we expect to miss more than they score.
We lose far more picks than we win, which is by design. The edge only appears in volume.
GIF
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@BeeNetwork I assume this is incorrect? The 205 is in the list of services not running so they can’t both be right!
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@MaccasValueBets @scottythorn21 I took 2.95 (no super sub), seems to have shortened generally. How much price would you be willing to trade for the benefit of super sub. Think I can only recall one instance of it ever paying off. Nice to have but I’d tend to prioritise best price.
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@scottythorn21 Just remembered to get on and back it. Lovely price with super sub added to it 👌
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En-Nesyri starts and is in fine form.
Also the added bonus of Jhon Duran on the bench, who did so well for Super Sub markets last season🤞
Anytime Goalscorer Model 🧮@AGSModelBets
🏟️ Feyenoord v Fenerbache / Tmrw 🎯 Nesyri Anytime Goalscorer @ 2.75 Bet365 ⚠️ IMPORTANT note at the bottom - Nesyri has scored 14 goals in his last 14 games for Fenerbache. - The 28 Year old is in the 92nd percentile for Expected Goals compared to other forwards in the Big 5 Leagues over the last 365 days (0.70). - 91st Percentile for Shots On Target (1.47). - Champions League qualifying matches usually see a good amount of goals and can be very much end to end. - Super Sub On Bet365 means if he's subbed then John Duran will be his replacement which is a BIG positive. - Duran Left Aston Villa last season in a £71M move to Saudi. He's on loan to Fenerbache after disagreements with Al Nassr. He’s a very very good player who will get chances. It's very much hit and miss if it will be Nesyri or Duran starting, but Bet365 are one of the few bookmakers that do void players if they don't start. If that's the case then John Duran @ 2.50 is also a solid bet and will have Nesyri for Super Sub. Would reccomend taking both and cashing out one depending who’s confirmed. Or wait for tomorrow and make your decision when lineups are out.
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@SkyBetHelp Hi can you help we with a bet that should have been voided rather than settled as a loser? Rooney to score a try in Castleford v Huddersfield last night. My bet on Tate was correctly voided but Rooney also didn’t take part.
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@DarranPearce I remember it as the only source of live prices. No odds checker, visit each firm in turn and wait for 20+ pages to scroll. Probably good for responsible gambling as you’d do well to pick out more than 1 bet an hour. Then phone it through and speak to a person to get your bet on!
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I’ve tried explaining to my son before that this is one of the jobs I used to do but he couldn’t really grasp it!
Sports & Betting History by BestBettingSites@BettingSitesCom
We had it good back in the day with both Ceefax and Teletext giving us this on a daily basis ...
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@NeilMac555 Seen 5/2 Bayern to score a penalty or 12/5 for a penalty awarded in the game. Hardly ever value to be had in that market but with Bayern as 5 goal favourites I’d say both prices were too big.
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@Tombrownlee @StuartC31005 Yeah, proper pain, good to have a bit of context. So, for most people the prices displayed on OC won’t be the prices they get.
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Pros and cons of the weekend at BB.
Skybet have started showing different horse racing odds on the website as to the app, leading one member to cancel BB and label us as shocking.
But on the same weekend another member thanked us after landing a £22,000 golf win in shop.
The highs and lows of running a service like this can be extreme. IT are working on the Skybet issue but it is a real problem with no clear solution when different people see different odds.
Personally not that excited about the US Open this week. Roll on the Rocket Classic / Italian Open
Bookie Bashing@bookiebashnet
£22,000 😃😃 Fairly nice Monday morning for the BB Golf tracker user who picked out Syme/Fox for the double at 150/1 and 60/1
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@SkyBetHelp Hi just wondered if you were aware that you’re displaying inaccurate prices on @oddschecker at the moment? Noticed it several times today, most recently the outright market for the Women’s Euros. No point in being on there if your prices are wrong.
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@DarranPearce Women’s Euros outright being a case in point. All the same as Paddy according to OC, but not when you actually check. 5/2 joint best price about Spain rather than the 2/1 suggested.
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@DarranPearce At first glance it looks like they’re going with the same or very similar prices (in the markets I look at at least) but when you go to Skybet their prices can be significantly longer or shorter. So you think both are the same price but need to check on Skybet!
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So Flutter clearly trying to see if Oddschecker makes a difference with Paddy Power and Skybet now right on the left and Betfair Sportsbook has been taken off completely.
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@NeilMac555 Yeah, good luck to those who can play it. I’d probably leave it myself but you never know!
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@rag_harry you never know, sometimes they let you away with it if the stake is low
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