Rakkhi Joy

Trump went down a path that he had previously criticized Donald Trump, 2016: "The war in Iraq was a big and gross mistake. We shouldn't have gone to Iraq. We destabilized the Middle East... Politicians lied. They claimed that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. There were no weapons, and they knew it themselves."

Being too honest at a job interview 😂… a format you can try 🧘🤣

🤔 That 100% tariff on Chinese EVs might have something to do with it…?

@HealthRanger Regardless of technology and price advantages it will take a long time for European brand prestige to fade.

Mark my words: Chinese car companies are already out-engineering Japan, Germany, Korea and the USA when it comes to vehicle technology. Ford will be bankrupt. Toyota will soon be in dire straits. And Mercedes? Volvo? Audi? Collectors vehicles before long.

@_10delta_ Cool story bro. Just need to roll over and change hands

3 weeks ago I argued the US goal in Iran is to seize the global oil spigot. Venezuela in January -> Iran in February. Neutralize every supply channel outside the dollar system within 90 days. Achieve a compliant successor government and complete energy dominance. The oil thesis was the obvious layer. However, when you zoom out & view the last four years as a single sequence rather than isolated geopolitical events, the architecture of the grander US plan becomes visible. 1st was Europe, which laid the groundwork. The Ukraine conflict provided the justification for sanctions that collapsed Russian pipeline gas from 150 billion cubic meters to 40. Then Nordstream was destroyed, which rewired the entire European energy system permanently. The US went from supplying 28% of Europe's LNG in 2021 to 58% by 2025, exporting a record 111 million MTs, the 1st country in history to break 100 MT. Europe was transformed from a customer with options into a captive market now purchasing its survival in USD. 2nd was Syria. The fall of Assad severed the critical node connecting China's Belt & Road Initiative to the Mediterranean. The trilateral railway linking Iran, Iraq & Syria, designed to bypass Western maritime chokepoints, was completely destroyed. This isolated Iran geographically & cleared the path for what came next. 3rd was Venezuela. In January the US effectively took control of the world's largest heavy crude reserves. The US Gulf Coast has the most advanced refining complex on earth, specifically built for heavy sour crude. Phillips 66, Valero & the rest are now positioned to process hundreds of thousands of barrels of Venezuelan crude daily. The US captured a massive strategic reserve & solidified its position as the dominant exporter of refined petroleum products, an industry worth $110 billion in 2025 alone. Venezuela & Iran were the two major oil supply channels that existed outside the dollar system. Both produce heavy crude sold primarily to China & evaded US financial supervision. Both now being neutralized within 90 days, which leads us to.. 4th is Iran & the Middle East energy shock. Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, the world's largest natural gas reservoir. Iran retaliated against Qatar's Ras Laffan, the single largest LNG facility on earth, responsible for a fifth of global supply. QatarEnergy's own assessment is that 17% of export capacity is gone and recovery will take up to 5 years. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. European gas prices spiked 70%. Asian spot prices doubled. The only remaining scaled supplier? The United States. If Iran falls & a successor government is installed that the US controls or influences (the Delcy model described weeks ago) then roughly 40 to 45 million barrels per day of global production out of 103 million is effectively under US control. OPEC becomes irrelevant because the US coalition is now the marginal producer. Now add the gas dimension & it goes beyond oil. This war is solidifying the petrodollar system as it evolves into a hybrid petro/LNG-dollar. The old system was built on Saudi crude priced in USD. The new system is built on American crude plus American gas from the Gulf Coast, with no alternative supplier of comparable scale. The dependency is deeper because LNG infrastructure requires long term contracts & regasification terminals that lock buyers into supply relationships for decades. Europe & the Pacific allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.) cannot pivot away as there is nowhere left to pivot to. They're now locked into the US energy system. The market confirms this. DXY went from 96 to 101. Gold down ~20% from its January all time high. Bitcoin down 20% on the year. Brent above $100. European & Asian institutions are liquidating precious metals and crypto to buy dollars because they need dollars to buy the only remaining scaled energy supply. The world is selling its gold to buy American energy in American currency. The dollar is now being weaponized through energy dependency. The structural repricing is happening regardless of how the conflict resolves. But the US grand strategy goes deeper.. Artificial intelligence is a physical industry. It runs on power and chips. Data centers require massive uninterrupted baseload electricity, primarily provided by natural gas. Semiconductor fabrication requires helium & rare earths. By choking the Strait of Hormuz & crippling Middle Eastern LNG & helium production, the US is systematically degrading China's ability to power its data centers & fabricate semiconductors at scale. The US is energy self sufficient, especially with newly captured Venezuelan reserves & expanding Gulf Coast capacity running on domestic gas. On the other hand, China is import dependent & every joule it imports effectively now transits chokepoints the US Navy controls.. Iran was the Belt & Road's overland energy bypass, the corridor that allowed China to mitigate the Malacca Trap. With Iran neutralized that corridor is severed. China faces a world where its compute infrastructure competes for scraps on a depleted global LNG market, while American data centers run at full capacity on domestic energy. Russia is next in the sequence. A post-war Iran reopening under US influence competes directly with Russia for the same refineries in China & India at lower cost. Iran's production costs are lower. Russia loses its last structural advantage in heavy crude & its economic lifeline. Additionally, under the Iran war cover, Ukraine has been opportunistically destroying Russian energy infrastructure & all signs point towards Russia being at the end of the line. The message from Washington becomes very simple: we dismantled two regimes in three months, your economy is about to get crushed, sign the Ukraine deal. Then Trump sits down with Xi holding every card. Complete energy dominance. The hybrid petro/LNG-dollar fortified, Iran cleared, Russia cornered, & China facing the Malacca Trap fully closed with no remaining energy bypass. Israel & the GCC are absorbing the kinetic cost of a conflict whose primary beneficiary, counter to the mainstream narrative, is actually America (First). Qatar offline for 5 years reprices the entire global gas market in favor of US exporters for the remainder of the decade. The Gulf states face years of rebuilding. Europe faces its 2nd energy crisis in four years. Sure, the average American might face temporary moderate inflation & higher gas prices. But if you are the architect of the US empire & you view the rise of China & Chinese ASI as an existential winner takes all scenario, the collateral damage is acceptable cost. Whoever controls the energy corridors controls the monetary system. Whoever controls the monetary system & the energy supply simultaneously controls the compute infrastructure that determines which civilization builds ASI first. The US is seizing all 3.

I don't think people realize just how extraordinary what we're witnessing with Iran is. I was arguing with a dear journalist friend of mine yesterday who was telling me that Iran was winning, yes, but only on the strategic level, not tactically. The type of thing a skinny kid getting stuffed in lockers in highschool tells himself to make himself feel better: "These people will BEG to work for me in ten years. Everyone knows jocks peak in highschool. They'll literally beg." 😏 I think that's precisely wrong, and that's what makes the Iran war different. As of now, Iran is in fact holding its own tactically too. Think about other U.S. wars of aggression these past few decades. Take Vietnam, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Serbia, etc. (the list is unfortunately very long). The pattern was roughly always the same with an immense power differential between aggressor and victim. These wars were, by and large, imperial: the empire attempting to crush a much weaker people whose only realistic recourse was guerrilla resistance. And that is when they actually had the will to resist: some - like Libya - barely even bothered, just resigning themselves to their fate (despite being, at the time, the richest country in Africa). As spectators of these wars, if you had any moral sense, the dominant emotion was a kind of helpless disgust: you were watching a giant stomp through someone else's house. Sure, the U.S. actually lost many - if not most - of these wars, famously replacing the Taliban with the Taliban or being expelled with their tail between their legs from Vietnam, but the power differential was no less real for it. It's just that power doesn't always guarantee victory: sometimes the giant can't kill everyone, and eventually tires of trying. But the “victories” won this way were always pyrrhic at best: the people endured, yes, but what they were left with was a country in ashes that takes decades to rebuild. Meanwhile, in the grand scheme of things, the giant walked away with little more than a bruised ego. Iran is - remarkably - proving to be an entirely different beast: when others were merely surviving a giant, Iran appears to be able to compete with one. What just happened over the past 48 hours is the best illustration of this. You had the President of the United States issue a formal ultimatum: reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or we "obliterate" your power grid. Iran's response was essentially: we dare you, if you do this we'll make all your Gulf allies uninhabitable within a week. And, as we saw, Trump backed down: pretexting non-existent "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS" with Iran, he said his ultimatum no-longer applied (or, rather, became 5 days). Adding he now envisaged the Strait of Hormuz being “jointly controlled by me and the Ayatollah.” To the amusement of Iran’s diplomacy (x.com/IraninSA/statu…). That, folks, is a textbook tactical victory. It is, remarkably, Iran demonstrating in this instance that it had escalation dominance over the United States of America. That is, the ability to credibly threaten consequences so severe that the US - for perhaps the first time since the Cold War - found it preferable to stand down. That's no skinny kid being locked in a locker dreaming of revenge fantasies. That's the kid grabbing the bully's wrist mid-shove and watching his face change. And it's not the only tactical victory in this war so far. Take the episode over the Israeli attack on Iran's South Pars gas facility. Iran had warned that if that happened U.S. allies in the region - including Israel - would face a symmetrical response. And they delivered: famously devastating Qatar's Ras Laffan facility - which produced roughly 20% of global LNG supply - and leading, according to Qatar themselves, to a $20 billion loss of annual revenue for the next 5 years (oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-…). Not only that but they also managed to hit Israel's Haifa refinery (aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/19…), one of the country's most strategic and protected sites. The result was Trump distancing himself from the South Pars attack, saying that Israel had "violently lashed out" unilaterally and that "NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field." Israel then said it wouldn't strike Iran energy sites anymore (bloomberg.com/news/articles/…). From where I stand, that's another tactical victory. It is, at least, Iran demonstrating that is can fight back **symmetrically** against the U.S. and its allies. Not through asymmetric resistance with IEDs hidden in the roadside or traps hidden in the jungle, but eye for eye, and against some of the most heavily protected sites on the U.S.'s side. That's qualitatively different from any other adversaries the U.S. has directly fought in recent wars. There's plenty more, such as the pretty relevant fact that Iran has gained control of the single most strategic energy chokepoint on earth and the U.S. is finding it impossible to break that control. To the point where Trump has been reduced to publicly begging China - of all countries - for help, which given Trump's ego mustn't have been easy to do. Only to be told no. By China. And by everyone else he asked. This is the topic of my latest article: how this is, in fact, the first genuine "multipolar war." First, in the narrow sense: because Iran is revealing itself to be a genuine pole of power - not a superpower, but an actor that cannot be submitted, which is all multipolarity is. And second, because the war itself is accelerating multipolarity everywhere else: the U.S. has never been more isolated, never looked weaker and its security guarantees have never been more hollow. In my article I lay out the full scoreboard - military, economic, political - and explain why this war has already changed the world, regardless of how it ends. Enjoy the read here: open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbert…

After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC. May God bless America.

@ChinaliveX How do they know which tankers should be allowed through and which should not?

@ShaykhSulaiman How do they tell the difference?

BREAKING: IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER ABBAS ARAGHCHI SAYS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS OPEN: “The Strait of Hormuz is open. It is only closed to the tankers and ships belonging to our enemies, to those who are attacking us and their allies. Others are free to pass. Of course, many of them prefer not to because of their security concerns. This has nothing to do with us. There are many tankers and ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and I can say that the Strait is not closed, but it is only closed to American and Israeli ships and tankers, not to others.”

@BeijingDai When deciding to bomb a ship or not how do they know whether it is trading in Yuan?

This is clearly an extremely dangerous move. If the United States bombs Iran's oil facilities on the Kharg island, Iran will almost certainly retaliate by striking the oil infrastructure of Gulf states, under the name that “they are cooperating with American companies”. The Middle East—being the world's major crude-producing region—could be pushed into paralysis. The Middle East is China’s primary source of oil imports, and Beijing should do everything in its power to prevent such a scenario. Moreover, Iran has signaled the possibility of allowing RMB-denominated oil settlements to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This presents a significant temptation for China, but it is also an attempt to drag China into the water. To be honest, I haven’t yet figured out what the most appropriate strategy for China at this moment and I don't think the Chinese government has either. It's best for China not to take any major action when nothing is sure. Trump is an bad example of making moves without fully preparation.

A preliminary U.S. military investigation found that a U.S. Tomahawk missile mistakenly struck an Iranian elementary school on Feb. 28, killing at least 175 people, mostly children. The strike happened because outdated targeting data labeled the building as part of a nearby Iranian naval base. Officials say multiple agencies failed to verify the information. Source: NYT

🇺🇸🇮🇷 “Officers at Central Command created the target coordinates for the Minab strike that killed dozens of schoolchildren using outdated data provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency" ->The outdated data has to be older than 8 years. The school is visible here walled off and colored with painting for the kids already in 2018 on Google.

The United States has spent EIGHT TRILLION DOLLARS fighting and policing in the Middle East. Thousands of our Great Soldiers have died or been badly wounded. Millions of people have died on the other side. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE WORST DECISION EVER MADE.....

@ImBreckWorsham That's what happens if you don't have power or money in America

Aberdeen City Councilor Riley T. Carter was convicted of three counts of rape of a child in the first degree, three counts of incest in the first degree, one count of child molestation in the first degree, and one count of incest in the second degree, by a jury of his peers in Grays Harbor County Superior Court.

I need you to understand that nothing is going to be done about anything in the Epstein files. Nothing. The people in the documents will suffer no consequences. The institutions responsible for the abuses you've learned about will not change anything about how they operate. Your government will change absolutely nothing about its policies and behavior. Nothing will be done if you vote in the other political party. Nothing will be done if you vote in new politicians. Nothing will be done if you write letters to your senators and representatives. Nothing will be done if you hold protests outside government buildings. No meaningful laws will be passed. No prosecutions of any meaningful consequence will occur. Don't believe me? Just watch and pay attention. The power structure which birthed the Epstein abuses is not going to do anything about the Epstein abuses. The only thing that might possibly change is that some people may become radicalized against that power structure. That's the only real benefit that might come out of these Epstein releases the public has been demanding for years. That a few more eyes might get opened to how creepy and evil the people in charge of their society actually are. How creepy and evil capitalism and the western empire are. How creepy and evil Israel and Zionism are. That the collective might become a bit more aware that we live in a dystopia which elevates the very worst among us to positions of leadership and control. That's it. That's the only positive change that might come out of all this. Our rulers won't do anything to help right the wrongs, but the people might become a bit more ready and willing to overthrow our rulers. That's the only way health and humanity is going to win this one. By waking up to reality one pair of eyelids at a time and realizing that the reason everything is fucked is because we live under a fucked up system which elevates fucked up people, and we're not going to have a healthy world until we abolish the fucked up system that put the fucked up people in power. The Epstein releases won't change the abusiveness of the system. But they might nudge people toward dismantling that system.

96 % of the U.S. tariff costs are paid by Americans. Some Americans still believe that foreign countries pay U.S. tariffs. As an economist, I keep telling them that is not how tariffs work. In return they use to say for me to wait and see. Well, here we are. One of the best studies published the Kiel Institute for the World Economy finds that 96% of Trump-era tariffs were paid by Americans - U.S. consumers and U.S. firms. Foreign exporters absorbed only a tiny fraction of the cost. This should not surprise anyone who has taken introductory economics. A tariff is a tax on imports. That tax is collected at the border from U.S. importers, not from foreign governments. Those costs are then passed along, almost mechanically, into domestic prices. Sometimes exporters absorb a small share, but the overwhelming burden falls on the importing country. This was not a close call. It wasn’t “50–50.” It wasn’t ambiguous. Americans paid the tariffs. What is striking is the gap between promise and reality. We were repeatedly told that tariffs would be paid by “China,” by “Europe,” by “other countries.” In reality, they functioned exactly as economists warned: as a tax on Americans, disproportionately hurting lower- and middle-income households through higher prices. Economic laws are not partisan. They do not bend to slogans. They do not care who is president. You can reject expert advice. You can dismiss economists as “elitists.” But you cannot repeal supply and demand by decree. Tariffs don’t make other countries pay. They make your own citizens pay. And the data now confirms what economic theory has said all along.

@RnaudBertrand China exports cheap food. At what cost?!!

I love how the FT frames affordable food as some sort of aggression... The real question to be asked here - which the FT doesn't cover - isn't "how could China dare make caviar cheaper" but rather why Europeans kept it artificially expensive for decades (or simply didn't even try to scale). This is actually a fantastic case study in rent-seeking. There isn't any particular reason why caviar was meant to be expensive. As a matter of fact caviar originally gained popularity as a lowly staple food for peasants in Persia and Russia. The way to make it isn't particularly exotic: it's sturgeon aquaculture - clean water, controlled breeding, patience. Time-intensive, yes (sturgeons take 7-20 years to mature), but not fundamentally different from other fish farming. There's no secret technique that justified luxury pricing. So the actual interesting story to investigate here is rather why it took the Chinese to say: "wait, this is just fish farming, why are people being charged gold prices for it?" But no, true to form, the FT's sympathies lie with the rent-extractors who got punished for their greed, not the consumers who can now afford caviar.

@FPLOlympian Surely he has to get one of these calls right one day…

Captaincy for GW18 is set - Hugo Ekitike 🇫🇷©️ Can’t go wrong captaining a player at home against one of the worst teams in PL history, a winless Wolves. With 5 goals in his last 3 games, Ekitike has both the form and the fixture to haul this week - and I’m confident he will.

@Fantasticks101 Could be… he looked really good against Chelsea. Evinielson offside for his goal and another sitter missed which would’ve been an assist

I don't know who you are but you are going to want this guy back soon. 🫵🏾♻️ #FPL

@agent_of_change @TheOnion rolls over in it’s grave

Israel has joined the US, UK, Australia, Japan, Ukraine and a small handful of stooges in condemning the "repression of ethnic and religious minority groups" and the "destruction of cultural heritage" in China. Comforting to know that irony is not yet dead.