RatRace

Tell me you don’t understand cyclical investing without telling me you don’t understand

@damnang2 COHR and IIVI merged …

This article has clearly been resonating. In a short period of time, my Substack subscriber count has grown significantly, and this single article in particular has also led to many new paid subscriptions. I am confident that this piece will help readers understand the full picture of the optical sector at a glance. All of the core parts are explained in detail even in the free section of the article. In the paid section especially, I focused on a key question: if you were investing in optical stocks today, what should you actually be paying attention to? I approached the current landscape from three angles, valuation, fundamentals, and product cycle, and built an investment matrix for each company based on those factors. I also discussed how, in light of what may unfold over the next five years, some relatively undervalued areas could finally begin to stand out. As someone who is also investing in optical names myself, I sincerely hope this article proves helpful. Thank you again to everyone who has shown interest and support. Full article: open.substack.com/pub/damnang2/p…

@yizheng95 @BSkypia59338 Heard similar so I dont put much weight in them

@BSkypia59338 @ratrace232 I just cannot find any confidence on GFS, such a slow company that cannot win any battle and get anything done.

전공하는 입장에서 대충 쓰기 좀 그래서 인용으로 좀 더 세부적으로 간단히 적어보겠습니다. 제가 $TSEM 을 천천히 정리하려는 이유는 삼성이 잘나갈 것이라기 보다는(확실히 바쁘긴 합니다만..) SiPh가 8인치에서 12인치로의 변화되고 있는 시점과 12인치로 가야하는 상황이 맞물릴거 같아서 입니다 $TSEM 은 SiPh 8인치 파운드리로는 거의 1~2를 다투지만 12인치는 일본 일부 말고는 큰 물량을 소화할 수 없기도 하고 라인을 늘려 26년 안에 5배 성장시킨다지만 업계 특성상 라인 qual(품질 그룹이 진행하는 신규 라인 검증 QA)을 1~2년 이내에 하기 빡셀거라 단기간 내에 12인치 물량을 증가시킬 수 없을거 같습니다.(요건 개인 의견이 좀 있습니다) 결국 올해 4배정도 확장 계획을 발표했지만 양산까지의 시간이 필요할거라 판단한 부분이 하나 있습니다. 그 사이에 고객은 가능한 곳으로 이동할거거든요.. 근데 이동할 곳이 $TSM, $INTL, $GFS, $STM(icron), 삼성과 같은 거대 기업이면 안정정이기도 하니 다시 돌아갈 이유가 없을 것 같습니다.( $UMC 도 하는 것 같은데 여긴 아직 잘..) 그리고 8인치 wafer가 칩 단위 수가 적은 것은 당연하고 단순히 PO를 만든 때와는 다르게 PIC에게 요구하는 조건들이 많아졌습니다. 1. PIC의 성능 - 8인치 설비의 한계로 Loss가 큼, uniformity, 고속 modulator 성능도 12인치가 좋음 2. 차세대 패키지 - 2.5D, 3D는 물론 HCB할때 PIC가 base가 됨. 결국 8인치는 힘든 상황(설비적으로나 공정적으로나) 3. 200G 다음인 400G를 위한 Heterogeneous Integration이 8인치로는 한계가 분명함. - 2와 공통적인 부분 - 400G부터는 변조기가 Si만으로는 좀 빡심(현재까지 Aloe만 가능하다고 하는것 같음) TFLN이나 다른 차세대 변조기 사용이 필요함 - 그 외 이때쯤 400G에 필요한 디바이스들은 칩렛처럼 붙이는게 이득 결국 8인치로는 힘든 부분이 생길거고 이게 현실적으로 투입이 필요한 시기가 29년쯤 된다고 하면 PIC 준비 시기부터 패키지 샘플을 제작하고 양산하기 까지의 과정이 27년쯤엔 시작될거 같아서입니다. 그래서 개인적인 생각으로는 $TSEM 보다 $GFS 로 천천히 넘어갈 듯 합니다.

@jukan05 $100mln until compliance cuts contracts because the non public info and conflicts of issue debacle from a few weeks ago…

SemiAnalysis will generate $100 million in revenue this year, and the newsletter accounts for only a very small portion of that. This is something I’ve been thinking for a while: SemiAnalysis’s newsletter is basically a charitable project. He could shut it down at any time and it wouldn’t really matter.

We’re at a blow off top of sorts?

@GamewithDave Doom on Dos. Old school

For anyone who used a computer between 1990 & 2005… what’s the one game you still think about?

With $UBER putting capex into AVs and robotaxi companies going DTC in some markets, I don’t see how little guys like $LYFT survive this

@TheBigLong2019 @AltaFoxCapital Oh. I thought you were suggesting mgmt replacement.

@ratrace232 @AltaFoxCapital Obviously he has created shareholder value in spite of his drawbacks, which speaks to how good the business is. My point is that with better governance much more value would have been (and still could be) created.

Semi-regular post: what is the highest quality SMID-cap you have come across which would benefit from improved governance/strategy?

@TheBigLong2019 @AltaFoxCapital CEO is ok. He does rub some people the wrong way, and is ruthless with his employees, but at the end of the day he has generally contracted value over his time (not without bumps along the way but who doesn’t?)

@AltaFoxCapital Huge growth opportunity, acyclical business, but CEO likes to dominate and so the BoD and management team are under-qualified.

@CRUDEOIL231 @KingDegen0x Give us the 140 character version so we know what path to go down to learn it on our own

@KingDegen0x To explain it accurately would take an hour of writing, and frankly I just can't be bothered.

Seeing it this clearly, I get where the oil bulls are coming from with their frustrations. That said, a lot of them don't actually understand the underlying mechanics of the North Sea. At the end of the day, physics will prevail—it’s just a matter of time and sequence. #oott #iran

@obsidiancap1 @BrianSuttererMD @WHOOP Isn’t the Oura ring the same? Get data on stuff you already knew?

@BrianSuttererMD @WHOOP I cancelled my whoop pretty soon after getting it It was cool at first tracking some new stats, but what’s the behavior chg and actual impact? TLDR is get some sleep and don’t drink too much alcohol. Don’t need a device to tell you that…

Why would @WHOOP highlight that their recommendation wasn’t worth a darn 😂

@lfg_cap @AlphaSenseInc I share your sentiments. They are creating so much friction in the interface and usability. Meanwhile, their AI responses are inconsistent.

@AlphaSenseInc you are really fucking shameless.

The income of people making ≥$640,601 per year is taxed at 37%. The income of people making <$50,401 per year is taxed at 10-12%. Left-wingers want you to believe that the wealthy don’t pay their “fair share.” High income earners pay more than their fair share. If it were truly even, it’d be 10% across the board. Socialists / commies don’t actually think the rich don’t pay their fair share, they are just jealous that they are poor and are unsuccessful in life. That’s all it boils down to.

So much damn AI slop on my feed. X should have a feature to filter out posts likely written by AI.

@KirkLubimov Cite your sources? … @Rory_Johnston

A whole convoy of empty oil tankers on the way to the US to fill up. It could have been Canada but we have land acknowledgments to do and carbon tax instead.

@BarbellFi @robbiehendricks Too aggressive for financial planning, too conservative for engagement farming!

@robbiehendricks Too conservative? 🙂

My wife & I are 36 years old We have $1.5 million invested If we never invest another dollar And only work to cover our expenses We’ll have $45 million by 65 years old Compound interest is wild 🤯

Love this. Reminds me of a partner of a mega pod I worked at during my hedge fund days that would always say: “Simple is good. Easy is not” meaning the best ideas can be explained in a sentence but if it was easy to get there (ie 3p data pointing to revenue beat), it probably wasn’t a good idea. I remember once talking to someone at Blackstone fund of funds who regretted not investing in Melvin when it launched because he wasn’t enamored when Gabe said he differentiated himself by working 6 days a week with DCFs. Anyone that knew how hard they worked would know their process was not easy. I had no idea about the detail work behind Raising Cane’s. x.com/davidsenra/sta…

The people in this photo aren't friendlier than you. Their apartments are just smaller. So small that Parisians basically gave up on living indoors and moved their living rooms onto the sidewalk. And that was the whole plan. In the 1850s, a city planner named Baron Haussmann tore apart medieval Paris and rebuilt it. He widened streets into boulevards, capped every building at five stories, and added one rule that explains this entire photo: the ground floor of every building had to be a café, a bakery, or a shop. The apartments above were intentionally tiny. Some were single rooms carved out of old mansions. No garden. Barely any sunlight. A private balcony was something most Parisians would never have. So the café became home. You ate breakfast there. Held meetings there. Received your mail there. By the late 1700s, Paris already had close to 2,000 of them. In 2002, there were still 1,907. Even now, after years of closures brought that number to about 1,410, the coverage is absurd: a 2020 city study found 94% of Parisians live within a five-minute walk of a bakery. When COVID shut indoor dining in 2020, Paris ripped out parking spaces, turned them into outdoor terraces, and let 9,800 cafés and restaurants keep them permanently. An American sociologist named Ray Oldenburg wrote a book in 1989 called The Great Good Place. He had a name for spots like the Parisian café: "third places." Not your home, not your office, but the casual in-between spots where you actually get to know people. Cafés, pubs, barbershops, the corner store where the owner knows your name. His whole argument was that American suburbs were built with only two zones, your house and your job, connected by a car. No sidewalk café, no place to bump into a neighbor by accident. The U.S. Surgeon General declared loneliness a national health epidemic in 2023. Being alone all the time is as bad for your body as smoking 15 cigarettes a day. Half of American adults say they feel lonely. Weekly socializing dropped from 5.5 hours in 2003 to just 4 hours in 2023, and it never bounced back after COVID. Americans between 15 and 29 now spend 45% more time alone than they did in 2010. The scene in this tweet looks like a personality trait. It is a 170-year-old engineering project that works exactly as designed.

@WAR527 @Rory_Johnston Would be suicidal to move on Kharg… both politically in the midterms and in massive loss of American lives

Prepare to get the kids to bed early @Rory_Johnston