Mark Rosenblatt

2.1K posts

Mark Rosenblatt

Mark Rosenblatt

@ratwave

Technologist, Investor, Foreign Policy Realist

Edgemont Katılım Aralık 2008
934 Takip Edilen381 Takipçiler
Mark Rosenblatt
Mark Rosenblatt@ratwave·
Two days. Time to learn about social media monitoring.
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Mark Rosenblatt
Mark Rosenblatt@ratwave·
The top 100 Verizon executives could take a lesson here. Let’s see if it monitors and responds! Your move. @Verizon @VerizonSupport @verizonfios @VerizonNews @VerizonBusiness @InsideVerizon @vzfrontline @VerizonCareers
Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta

Amazon's internal metrics said customers waited under 60 seconds for customer service. Jeff Bezos picked up the phone in a meeting and waited more than 10 minutes. The head of customer service had been defending the number. Bezos said "Ok, let's call." He dialed Amazon's 1-800 line on speaker. The room sat there for over ten minutes before a rep answered. The metric didn't survive the meeting. Bezos has a saying: when the data and the anecdotes disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. Metrics don't measure reality. They measure what you designed them to measure. Customer service dashboards commonly filter out abandoned calls, cap hold time at the IVR timeout, and start the clock after the menu tree completes. Every one of those choices pushes the average down. The customers hanging up at minute 9 are not in the denominator. The 60-second number was technically accurate and practically wrong. That call broke through a defended metric in a way no spreadsheet could have. The head of CS had dashboards and a team whose job was to report that number going down quarter over quarter. Bezos had 10 minutes of hold music and a room full of people watching. This is the executive test almost nobody runs. Call your own 1-800 line. Try to buy your own product in incognito. Every senior leader can do it in under 15 minutes. Almost none do, because the dashboards feel like the truth and the dashboards say things are fine. The measurement got redesigned. Wait times actually fell. When your data says you're winning and your customers say you're losing, the customers are right. The data was built by people whose job depends on it going down.

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Mark Rosenblatt
Mark Rosenblatt@ratwave·
adversity breed innovation
Ken Cao-The China Crash Chronicle@Ken_LoveTW

Putin confirms: “Chinese drones can't fight in a war!” On the Russia–Ukraine battlefield, the momentum is beginning to shift. Ukraine is no longer just defending. It is starting to push back. And a big part of that shift comes down to one factor: drones. But numbers alone don’t explain it. Russia also deploys drones at scale. So why does Ukraine appear to have the edge? The answer lies in what powers those systems. Some of Ukraine’s newer drones, such as the so-called “Hornet” or “Martian” models, are equipped with advanced chips from NVIDIA, manufactured by TSMC. These aren’t just remotely controlled machines. Increasingly, they operate with autonomous AI. That changes everything. These drones can identify, track, and strike targets with minimal human input. What once belonged to science fiction is now part of real combat. And this is where Taiwan enters the picture. It’s not just Ukraine relying on Taiwanese technology. Russia, despite sanctions, is also trying to access similar components, often through indirect channels. That alone tells you how critical these technologies have become. At its core, a modern drone is a system of four essential elements. A “brain,” the processor that runs everything. “Eyes,” powered by AI for visual and thermal recognition. Communication systems, enabling coordination and data transfer. And flight control systems, ensuring stability and execution. Across all four layers, Taiwanese companies play a central role. When analysts dissect captured Russian drones and missiles, they frequently find key electronic components, especially communication modules and advanced semiconductors, linked back to Taiwan’s supply chain. Materials like silicon carbide and gallium nitride further enhance performance, particularly in high-stress environments. The battlefield is now revealing what works. Ukraine’s use of high-performance, AI-enabled systems has proven effective under real combat conditions. By contrast, many mass-produced commercial drones, including some widely used Chinese models, struggle in warfare environments. They are more vulnerable to electronic interference and often lack the reliability and autonomy required in contested conditions. This reflects a deeper industrial difference. China excels at scale and cost efficiency. Taiwan specializes in precision, customization, and high-performance engineering. One prioritizes volume. The other prioritizes capability. In modern warfare, that distinction is becoming decisive. Even within China, there are growing discussions about the limitations of certain military platforms, including concerns over design efficiency and operational effectiveness in newer systems like the Fujian aircraft carrier. These debates hint at a broader issue: advanced hardware alone is not enough if integration and execution fall short. Ultimately, war is not decided by how systems look on paper. It is decided by whether they function under pressure.

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Mark Rosenblatt
Mark Rosenblatt@ratwave·
adversity breeds innovation
Barrett@BarrettYouTube

This is the moment NVIDIA should be seriously worried. In the next couple of weeks DeepSeek V4 will be launched. It’s a direct attack on the entire AI stack that American companies have spent years locking down. Full “de-NVIDIA-ization”, a complete shift away from CUDA into Huawei’s CANN ecosystem, running on Huawei Ascend chips. That means one thing, breaking the dependency that made NVIDIA untouchable. 35x faster inference vs early versions. Nearly 3x the performance of NVIDIA’s H20 on a single card. 40% less energy consumption. Over 95% CUDA compatibility with migration times collapsing from months to hours. Even Jensen Huang has already admitted it. If this works at scale, it’s a “terrifying outcome” for US companies. Because here’s the real problem, this isn’t happening in isolation. Chinese tech giants like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent are already ordering hundreds of thousands of Ascend chips. Market share is shifting fast, domestic chips now at 41%, NVIDIA slipping to 55% in China’s AI server market. Additionally DeepSeek V4 is reportedly offering API costs at a fraction of US competitors. $300 for massive workloads that would cost $2,500+ on OpenAI models, or even $5,000 on Anthropic. So this isn’t just about one model. It’s about China building a fully independent AI stack, chips, frameworks, models, and applications. Completely outside of US control. NVIDIA doesn’t just lose sales. It loses its grip on the global AI standard.

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Mark Rosenblatt
Mark Rosenblatt@ratwave·
One day. It’s possible Verizon is unaware customers use its services over the weekend and may need attention.
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Byron Wan
Byron Wan@Byron_Wan·
Will a certified Chinese airliner hit Airbus like the way Chinese EVs torpedoed German automakers? China’s aviation authorities have mobilized a range of resources to support European certification of the C919, the home-grown airliner aiming to take on Boeing and Airbus, with steady progress made in recent months. Technicians and pilots from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) have set up shop in Shanghai for more checks and in-flight tests in recent months. “They now stay in Shanghai, like almost permanently, for tests and flights.” It is understood that the European watchdog is requiring more test flights to prove the C919’s safety. Such flights mark the third phase of a four-stage certification process. The first flight tests were conducted in Nov, a milestone in Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China’s (Comac) multi-year effort to acquire Western endorsement for the Chinese jet, with a view to capturing overseas market share from the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 duopoly. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) had been rallying support from airlines, including their top pilots, to aid the certification push. Comac and Chinese airlines operating the C919 were providing past and real-time data to EASA. China Eastern Airlines had also shared repair and maintenance data, including those accumulated from periodical A and B checks on the first batch of C919s that joined its fleet in 2023. A and B checks are standardized, scheduled inspections of an aircraft’s safety performance. The single-aisle aircraft has been operating domestically since May 2023, with China’s big-three carriers, Air China, China Eastern and China Southern Airlines, increasing their use of the plane. The C919 had served a combined four million passengers on 46 routes by the end of last year, according to CAAC. During the 40-day Chinese New Year travel boom between Feb and Mar, it operated 4,300 flights, more than double the number a year ago. The nearly three years’ worth of data from domestic commercial operations might help with EASA’s analysis; the agency had visited a plant in Shanghai where the plane is assembled. Though flight tests can be seen as the “final exam”, they have to be followed by analysis, paperwork and technical verification. “Political considerations” could be hindering quicker certification. In that vein, China’s recent string of orders for Airbus aircraft might help. The European aviation giant has secured Chinese orders for more than 200 A320s since last year. Overall work was “advancing in an orderly manner” but still required time and effort. amp.scmp.com/economy/china-…
Byron Wan tweet media
Byron Wan@Byron_Wan

🇨🇳 Comac is set to miss a revised delivery target for its marquee C919 single-aisle jet, dealing a blow to its global ambitions after trade war-induced headwinds helped hamper production. China’s answer to Airbus and Boeing had shipped just 13 of its flagship C919 aircraft in the year through Dec 22. That matches the same number of C919s it handed airlines in 2024. Comac slashed its annual delivery target to 25 aircraft from 75 earlier this year but is still on track to fall well short. With just days left in 2025, the planemaker is set to miss even the revised goal by almost 50% — and the original target by more than 80% — barring a late surge in deliveries. Among expected recipients of the C919, China’s three largest carriers — Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines — planned to induct a combined 32 aircraft, according to their 2024 annual reports. So far, they’ve received a dozen.   The potential miss comes as Comac last month received a boost from several state-owned shareholders, injecting 44 billion yuan into the planemaker. The cash would enable Comac to scale up and boost production. Comac said as recently as a supplier conference in March 2025 that it planned to raise capacity output next year to make 100 of the aircraft. That will be followed by 150 in both 2027 and 2028, and then 200 annually by 2029, the company said.  But challenges this year hurt capacity, notably difficulties receiving a steady flow of parts for new aircraft — including engines from CFM International, a joint venture between GE Aerospace and France’s Safran SA, that were subjected to a US export ban. Comac depends on those engines for the C919 and also uses GE engines for its smaller C909 regional jet. Comac is pressing ahead with efforts to sell its aircraft overseas, seeking to capitalize on strong global demand for new fuel-efficient jets priced below rivals from Airbus and Boeing, even as the lack of gold-standard airworthiness certification from US and European regulators continues to constrain sales. The push comes as the world’s two dominant planemakers have been hobbled by parts shortages and quality lapses, creating an opening for smaller players like Comac and Brazil’s Embraer. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Mark Rosenblatt
Mark Rosenblatt@ratwave·
TikTok
Byron Wan@Byron_Wan

Will a certified Chinese airliner hit Airbus like the way Chinese EVs torpedoed German automakers? China’s aviation authorities have mobilized a range of resources to support European certification of the C919, the home-grown airliner aiming to take on Boeing and Airbus, with steady progress made in recent months. Technicians and pilots from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) have set up shop in Shanghai for more checks and in-flight tests in recent months. “They now stay in Shanghai, like almost permanently, for tests and flights.” It is understood that the European watchdog is requiring more test flights to prove the C919’s safety. Such flights mark the third phase of a four-stage certification process. The first flight tests were conducted in Nov, a milestone in Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China’s (Comac) multi-year effort to acquire Western endorsement for the Chinese jet, with a view to capturing overseas market share from the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 duopoly. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) had been rallying support from airlines, including their top pilots, to aid the certification push. Comac and Chinese airlines operating the C919 were providing past and real-time data to EASA. China Eastern Airlines had also shared repair and maintenance data, including those accumulated from periodical A and B checks on the first batch of C919s that joined its fleet in 2023. A and B checks are standardized, scheduled inspections of an aircraft’s safety performance. The single-aisle aircraft has been operating domestically since May 2023, with China’s big-three carriers, Air China, China Eastern and China Southern Airlines, increasing their use of the plane. The C919 had served a combined four million passengers on 46 routes by the end of last year, according to CAAC. During the 40-day Chinese New Year travel boom between Feb and Mar, it operated 4,300 flights, more than double the number a year ago. The nearly three years’ worth of data from domestic commercial operations might help with EASA’s analysis; the agency had visited a plant in Shanghai where the plane is assembled. Though flight tests can be seen as the “final exam”, they have to be followed by analysis, paperwork and technical verification. “Political considerations” could be hindering quicker certification. In that vein, China’s recent string of orders for Airbus aircraft might help. The European aviation giant has secured Chinese orders for more than 200 A320s since last year. Overall work was “advancing in an orderly manner” but still required time and effort. amp.scmp.com/economy/china-…

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Mark Rosenblatt
Mark Rosenblatt@ratwave·
Designed for manufacturing in a car-type plant. Volume at price.
Anduril Appreciator@A1Anduril

Anduril Founder @PalmerLuckey Presents the “Barracuda” Cruise Missile on Japanese TV: “This is designed to scare China into not taking action on Taiwan. It has a very specific purpose.” “[We] design our cruise missiles so that they can be very easily manufactured by automotive-style assembly lines.” “Remember that during WWII, the United States used their peacetime factories and pivoted them to wartime use.” “It’s much less expensive than a conventional missile… it’s cheaper to make 100,000 of these than 1,000 existing missiles.” “I should be able to buy a whole bunch of these for less than a budget compact car.” Rebuild The Arsenal. 🇺🇸

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Mark Rosenblatt
Mark Rosenblatt@ratwave·
AI will narrow spreads, reduce arbitrage possibilities, make markets more efficient, and reduce Wall Street trading profits.
Hanako@hanakoxbt

a Citadel intern told me something at a party he probably shouldn't have it was on a rooftop in brooklyn. i mentioned i trade prediction markets. he got quiet for a second. "we have a model for that. it scores every contract on four factors. when all four align we enter. when any breaks we exit. that's it" i asked what the four factors are. he looked around. then said it fast like he was confessing. "cross-market divergence. disposition coefficient. capital velocity. pair network correlation" I didn't know what half of that meant. but i memorized it. went home. 11pm. opened Claude. "here are four scoring factors from a quant fund. build a terminal that runs all four on prediction markets" Claude asked one question: "Where's the data?" I sent him one repo: github.com/warproxxx/poly… 86 million trades. every wallet. every entry. every outcome three weeks later i'm sitting in my apartment watching a screen i barely understand print money. the disposition meter alone changed everything. it measures how you exit - not how you enter. top wallets capture 86% of winner value and cut losers at 12%. everyone else captures 58% and holds losers to 41%. same exact entries. the exits make it a completely different game. capital velocity: 49x. every dollar gets recycled 49 times before the average trader recycles once. the terminal found 42 pair correlations across 11 markets. when MSFT beats Q3 is priced at 80c but the model reads 93% - it enters. when the gap closes 2 hours later - it exits. no opinions. no news. just four numbers that either align or don't. his fund runs this with a floor of PhDs and $800M AUM. my setup: > Claude - $20/month > VPS - $5/month > poly_data repo - free > Polymarket API - free $25/month. no team. no office. no Bloomberg. 280 trades so far. 70% win rate. $800 seed. four bots splitting the work: pulse_alpha +$299. arb_hunter +$558. trend_rider +$337. cal_engine +$719. +$11,514 total. copytrade here: @1743116" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@1743116 he texted me last week. "delete everything i told you" too late.

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Mark Rosenblatt
Mark Rosenblatt@ratwave·
@michaelxpettis Spain is making a Prisoner’s Dilemma move to defect within the EU to reap the greatest benefits from China tech/trade/factories from which it can supply the rest of Europe. Will Spain get pummeled or cause a rush of defectors to gain China deals?
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Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis@michaelxpettis·
1/3 Bloomberg: "Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is aiming to persuade Chinese companies to share more tech know-how with their Spanish partners on a trip to Beijing next week, according to people familiar with the preparations." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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