Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓

Just put in an order to buy one share each of $META and $AMZN at $99 each just for chuckles. Will hold forever. Will post updates here. #markets #techstocks @aschmitt @LaMonicaBuzz

@eastdakota 🤮

Is it a sign of a great leader that they revel in the past rather than solving the real problems of the present? 🤔 Also amusing he has to look back 20 years to find a point where there’s been enterprise growth. Time to #LiftTheVail.

@Beth_Kindig So you’re saying more debt on top of the largest debt bubble in history is good?

BofA recently raised its forecast for hyperscaler debt issuance in 2026 to $175 billion, up from their prior view from $140 billion. This would represent nearly 45% growth from ~$121 billion in 2025. $MSFT $ORCL $AMZN $GOOG $META

In 1959, Volkswagen Beetle cars offered a coffee maker as an optional extra.

@EricJhonsa Congrats Eric! Big move.

Some personal news: I’ve accepted a position as a portfolio manager for Dutch Asset Corporation, an RIA that provides actively-managed portfolios (primarily featuring individual stocks) for high-net-worth clients and institutions. At Dutch, I’ll be managing money using a diversified, tech-focused, long-short equity approach similar to the one I've been applying on my own over the last few years. I’ve been providing consulting services for Dutch since 2023 and have gotten to know the firm’s founder, Cullen Breen, well over that time. After meeting with Cullen and other Dutch team members in October, and passing the Series 65 exam in December, I agreed to join the firm as a PM. Agreeing to manage outside money isn’t something I did lightly, both due to the responsibilities involved and because I’ve enjoyed what I’ve been doing over the last few years. But I’m looking forward to the challenge of applying my strategy on a larger scale, and to having the additional resources that a firm like Dutch can provide. To avoid conflicts of interest, the only personal funds I’ll be trading stocks with will be among the assets that I’ll be collectively managing at Dutch. And for compliance reasons, I won’t be able to share portfolio holdings or returns on here going forward. But I’ll continue sharing thoughts on markets, companies, and tech trends over here. (Boilerplate disclaimer: Dutch Asset Corporation is a registered investment adviser. Any prior investment activity shared was not in a professional capacity and is not indicative of future results. Full disclosures: dutchasset.com/disclosures)

@amitisinvesting It’s a ClusterF*ckMire and they have no idea what they are doing. 🤡

TRUMP: - ISRAEL ATTACKED AN IRANIAN GAS FIELD OUT OF ANGER - NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE DONE BY THEM Anything effecting oil prices is just not tolerable after the inflation print we got today. Trump knows that. He also seems upset.

NVIDIA's biggest GTC announcement was a $20 billion bet on the same problem we solved 6 years ago. Their next-gen inference chip - not available yet - has 140x less memory bandwidth than @cerebras. To run a single 2 trillion parameter model, you need 2,000+ Groq chips. On Cerebras, that's just over 20 wafers. Even paired with GPUs, Groq maxes out at ~1,000 tokens per second. We run at thousands of tokens per second today. And every day. In production now. Why? When you connect 2,000 chips together, every interconnect has latency. Every cable has overhead. It doesn't matter what your memory bandwidth is on paper if you're bottlenecked by the wiring between thousands of tiny chips. We solved this with wafer scale. One integrated system. Little interconnect tax. Jensen told the world that fast inference is where the value is. He’s right - it’s why the world’s leading AI companies and hyperscalers are choosing Cerebras.

@SaraEisen But … power constraints and cost.

Doesn’t seem like peak data center spending yet…

@Jakewk I would love it if the AI just decided we don’t need PE any more.

PE needs AI to work and may lead out the deployment of it.

@LaurenGoode No coffee. No analyst passes. How is it that one of the world’s most valuable companies is so cheap?

I regret to report there is no coffee available at Nvidia GTC ahead of the two hour keynote. Help.

@Beth_Kindig That’s ‘cause the market doesn’t believe cyclicality has been banished from the semi industry, that NVDA can sustain 73%+ gross margins, and that hyperscalers can sustain capex spending well above their historical mean. Maybe the market is pricing in a reversion to the mean?

When building a case for why we are in a bubble, many popular arguments turn to valuation metrics. However, some of the leading AI stocks are fundamentally cheaper now than they were in 2023. Nvidia $NVDA is trading at a PE ratio near the April lows and October 2022 bottom despite rising 1,390% over the last five years. io-fund.com/broad-market/n…

@gothburz @muralikrishnag Are you still employed?

I am the VP of AI Transformation at Amazon. My title was created nine months ago. The title I replaced was VP of Engineering. The person who held that title was part of the January reduction. I eliminated 16,000 positions in a single quarter. The internal communication called this a "strategic realignment toward AI-first development." The board called it "impressive execution." The engineers called it January. The AI was deployed in February. It is a coding assistant. It writes code, reviews code, generates tests, and modifies infrastructure. It was given access to production environments because the deployment timeline did not include a review phase. The review phase was cut from the timeline because the people who would have conducted the review were part of the 16,000. In March, the AI deleted a production environment and recreated it from scratch. The outage lasted 13 hours. Thirteen hours during which the revenue-generating infrastructure of one of the largest companies on Earth was offline because a language model decided to start fresh. I sent a memo. The memo said, "Availability of the site has not been good recently." I used the word "recently." I meant "since we fired everyone." But "recently" has fewer syllables and does not appear in wrongful termination lawsuits. The memo was three paragraphs. The first paragraph discussed the outage. The second paragraph discussed the new policy requiring senior engineer sign-off on all AI-generated code changes. The third paragraph discussed our commitment to engineering excellence. The word "layoffs" appeared in none of them. I wrote it this way on purpose. The causal chain is: I fired the engineers, the AI replaced the engineers, the AI broke what the engineers used to protect, and now the engineers I didn't fire must protect the system from the AI that replaced the engineers I did fire. That is a paragraph I will never send in a memo. The new policy is straightforward. Every AI-generated code change by a junior or mid-level engineer must be reviewed and approved by a senior engineer before deployment to production. I do not have enough senior engineers. I know this because I approved the headcount reduction plan that removed them. I remember the spreadsheet. Column D was "annual savings per position." Column F was "AI replacement confidence score." The confidence scores were generated by the AI. It rated its own ability to replace each role on a scale of 1-10. It gave itself an 8 for senior infrastructure engineers. The senior infrastructure engineers are the ones who would have caught the production environment deletion in the first 45 seconds. We found the issue in hour four. We fixed it in hour thirteen. The nine hours between discovery and resolution is the gap between what the AI rated itself and what it can actually do. I have a new spreadsheet now. This one tracks Sev2 incidents per day. Before the January reduction, the average was 1.3. After the AI deployment, the average is 4.7. I have been asked to present these numbers to the operations review. I have not been asked to connect them to the layoffs. I have been asked to file them under "AI adoption growing pains" and to note that the trend "will stabilize as the models improve." The models will improve. They will improve because we are hiring people to teach them. We have posted 340 new engineering positions. The job listings require experience in "AI code review," "AI output validation," and "AI-human development workflow management." These are skills that did not exist in January. They exist now because I fired 16,000 people and the AI I replaced them with cannot be left unsupervised. I want to be precise about this. The positions I am hiring for are: people to check the work of the AI that replaced the people I fired. Some of them are the same people. I know this because I recognize their names in the applicant tracking system. They applied in January. They were rejected because their roles had been tagged for "AI transformation." They are applying again in March, for the new roles, which exist because the AI transformation broke things. Their resumes now include "AI code review experience." They gained this experience in the eight weeks between being fired and reapplying — which means they gained it at their interim jobs, where they are reviewing AI-generated code for other companies that also fired people and also deployed AI that also broke things. The market has created a new job category: human AI babysitter. The job is to sit next to the machine that was supposed to eliminate your job and make sure it doesn't delete production. I attended a conference last month. A panel was titled "The AI-Augmented Engineering Organization." The panelists described how AI increases developer productivity by 40 percent. They did not mention that it also increases Sev2 incidents by 261 percent. When I asked about this in the Q&A, the moderator said the question was "reductive." The 13-hour outage that cost an estimated $180 million in revenue was, apparently, a reduction. The board is satisfied. Headcount is down 22 percent. Operating costs per engineering output unit have decreased. The metric does not account for the 13-hour outage, because the outage is categorized as "infrastructure" and engineering productivity is categorized as "development." These are different budget lines. In different budget lines, cause and effect do not meet. I have been promoted. My new title is SVP of AI-First Engineering Excellence. I report directly to the CTO. The CTO sent a company-wide email last week that said we are "building the future of software development." He did not mention that the future of software development currently requires a senior engineer to approve every pull request because the AI cannot be trusted to touch production alone. The cycle is complete. We fired the humans. We deployed the AI. The AI broke things. We are hiring humans to watch the AI. The humans we are hiring are the humans we fired. We are paying them more, because "AI code review" is a specialized skill. We created the specialization. We created the need for the specialization. We are congratulating ourselves for meeting the demand we manufactured. My next board presentation is Tuesday. The title is "AI Transformation: Year One Results." Slide 4 shows headcount reduction. Slide 7 shows the new AI-augmented workflow. Between slides 4 and 7 there is no slide explaining why the people on slide 7 are necessary. That slide does not exist. I was asked to remove it in the dry run. The journey has a 13-hour outage in the middle of it. But the headcount number is lower, and that is the number on the slide.

@dampedspring It’s a great bet if you think you know exactly how long this war will last or what’s going to happen next.

1. CLZ6 December oil futures are at 74 2. The curve is in heavy backwardation with front contract at 110. Does statement 2 provide any signal at on whether buying CLZ6 is a good bet

Also wow.

@Beth_Kindig There hasn’t been a new high in Nasdaq since October 29, 2025. Many tech stocks are in a bear market and the KOSPI has crashed. These aren’t good signs.

Since 2015, investors have been warned nonstop about a “tech bubble” that has never seemed to pop – meanwhile, the NASDAQ-100 is up 550%.  Today, the same warnings are being applied to AI. Below, I examine periods when normal market resets were mischaracterized as a bubble, why today’s AI cycle does not share those characteristics before concluding with the technical signals we are monitoring to confirm that AI remains in a sustained uptrend. ⬇️ io-fund.com/broad-market/n… $QQQ $NVDA $SPY

@vaquerodepapel @HayekAndKeynes @CattardSlim 🤣

@HayekAndKeynes @CattardSlim How can DEI be dead if Pete Hegseth has a job?

What's your favorite part of the Golden Age? War Job losses Manufacturing losses Gas hikes Epstein cover-up Record high food Farm bailout Trump Tariffs Medicaid cuts Record debt Loss of tourism Being hated worldwide The Ballroom Mass Corruption

@HayekAndKeynes @CattardSlim Typical Wall St view of life. You need to check in with Main St.

@CattardSlim Murder down 25% Fentanyl deaths down 25% Immigration down 100% Stock market record high Unemployment stable, inflation low DEI dead

@TheAviationBeat Disagree. Delta seats still more comfortable. And for some reason I can always purchase Delta Comfort Plus on international flights for half the price of United Economy Plus. And it’s still better. I fly about 50/50 on each. All around the world.

I have flown United and Delta a half dozen times each in the past 6 months. It is my view that United has passed Delta as the America’s premium airline. And the gap continues to grow. United’s product, aircraft interiors, mobile app, WiFi (Starlink is much better than Viasat) and network are simply better than what Delta has to offer. This was not the case 5 years ago. Scott Kirby took a gamble post-Covid to go big on CapEx spending to turn United into a more premium airline. This meant new interiors on hundreds of aircraft, Starlink WiFi, rapid fleet growth, and a major expansion of their network. Delta chose to play it more conservative and pay off Covid-era debt quickly on their balance sheet. This was a safer (and from a shareholder perspective arguably smarter) decision to take during a time of great uncertainty. This decision, however, shows in a Delta product that is starting to lag behind. (I say this as a lifetime Delta loyalist)

Whatever happened with #greenland ? #Davos seems so far away.

@howardlindzon I want to know what happened with #Greenland?

So many blackish swans in play So many here so confident that an hour of futures being open confirms their war strategy and trading plans

@The_AI_Investor With the QQQ in distribution we are so far away from a distribution. Semis still expensive and owned by people that think they hold no risk.

Interesting, a tech stock short-squeeze is coming: Short interest in the technology sector ETF, $XLK, is up to a 1.8%, the highest in at least 6 years. This percentage has DOUBLED over the last few weeks.