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@unaliveolives @davereaboi I don’t know how you can say that anyone had a specific plan of how it would go. That’s just saying you think they are dumb, with no evidence.
I think all the big questions are still 50/50.
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@realjacobsrival @davereaboi I don't know what the ultimate outcome will be - it seems obvious it's not going according to plan. It also seems **really** likely that at the end of this Iran will retain the ability to close the Straight at will.
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This would be a big disaster, and would truly mark the end of America as a global power. Wigging out after 4-6 weeks of decisive military victory is an embarrassment.
Raylan Givens@JewishWarrior13
⭕️ WSJ: In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said.
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@unaliveolives @davereaboi I guess you really don’t understand what I think? I have no confidence in any particular outcome here. I just know anyone who is saying it’s definitely a disaster is not to be trusted.
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@realjacobsrival @davereaboi I'll bet you a million dollars that when this is over Iran can still close the straight any time they want.
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@unaliveolives @davereaboi It was open because the regime was operating freely. Now that we’ve started this, I see the value in trying to take control of the strait from Iran.
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@realjacobsrival @davereaboi I mean, it was open before we attacked them. The lesson to Iran is - "If anyone f's with us close the Straight immediately."
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@benzornes But the players have to make a judgment call about when to use it. They seem to be right with stunning frequency.
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I want to go on record to say that I hate this vehemently.
This orients the sport to the tediously precise algorithm, instead of the judgement and skill of the humans playing it, umping it, and watching it.
Codify@CodifyBaseball
about as close as it gets
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@JoshYoung Again I am not saying it’s true. It seems like maxing out pipelines gets you to just under half the total that usually goes through the strait.
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@realjacobsrival Saudi redirect is known and a minority of volumes. Where are you suggesting the rest go?
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OPEC and US supply growth will likely offset Iran exports by June. By May, most Hormuz Strait volumes may have been re-routed.
via Rystad, Bloomberg, SP Global.
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@JoshYoung @dlacalle_IA Are you suggesting that “just Saudi” isn’t a massive part of oil that was going through the Strait previously? I don’t know about the rest of it but that’s not an insignificant piece. Again, not saying it’s true but that is a potential indicator.
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@realjacobsrival @dlacalle_IA That's just Saudi, not total Strait volumes.
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@JoshYoung @dlacalle_IA I have no idea if any of that is true but here’s an example of why it might be.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@dlacalle_IA "Most Hormuz Strait volumes may have been rerouted"
Re-routed? How and where?
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@besttrousers The few things that still have anything close to that remaining past universality are not elite things. Mostly pop culture stuff that critics dislike, such as Avatar,
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It feels like people don't understand that there aren't *any* universal channels now.
Joe Rogan and Hasan Piker are 1.) among the largest political channels 2.) have audiences that would have been considered irrelevant two decades ago.
Everything Price Sufferer (but especially eggs)@agraybee
He averages 30,000 viewers in his stream, he's basically a public access host, we actually don't have to treat him as the party kingmaker.
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Not understanding how deeply broken America was in 2015 is perhaps the central confusion of the Trump era.
After two terms of Obama, America saw what liberalism looked like and realized it was a deeply dispiriting dead end.
Country Club Conservative@alt_ccc
Honestly I understand it more in 2024 than in 2016. Things were just fine in 2015. Our party system was much better. Society was much healthier. There was no need or justification for some revolution. Yet here we are.
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@mattyglesias “My friends and subscribers will get mad at me if I don’t personally insult people who are obviously right on a bunch of political issues”
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Something that I try to be consistent about is you need to try to judge the topic at hand without worrying too much about secondhand contamination.
It's true that for any given immigration policy controversy, a large fraction of the people arguing for restriction will be racists. But it's still the case that asylum claims became a bad, abusive loophole that needed closing.
Many of the loudest voices on the trans sports issue really are bigots, homophobes, etc. but the traditionalist side of this is still correct.
Similarly, anti-Israel politics really is full of anti-semites who won't be happy with a more sensible American approach and wouldn't be appeased by more restrained behavior on Israel's part. But it's still true that the US should rebalance the relationship and that Israel should behave more responsibly.
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@unaliveolives Every situation is different but Trump has earned this level of trust. Just complete bias to suggest otherwise.
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@realjacobsrival There is no way you would reserve this much judgement if it were any other politician in any other situation. He’s threatening to destroy drinking water for a country of 60 million. It’s not going well. They closed the straight and he can’t reopen it.
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What everyone has wrong here is that if Tucker was used to funnel incorrect information to the Iranian regime, it means he’s in the CIA. His father was in the CIA and he “applied” to be in the CIA. It’s the only logical conclusion one can make.
Tucker Carlson@TuckerCarlson
When you discover the CIA has been reading your texts in order to frame you for a crime.
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@unaliveolives I think saying anything definitive good or bad is misguided.
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@realjacobsrival They gave me a very big gift. They’re letting 10 ships through.
He obviously had no idea what he was kicking off and now he’s stuck because Iran is kindof winning.
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@unaliveolives If you don't think he's being deliberately slippery about any and all expectations then you're just denying a super obvious thing.
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@dilanesper Such disingenuous framing. The text of the Constitution is very clear that birthright citizenship is not absolute. How we choose to interpret it is up for debate.
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Prediction: the birthright citizenship case is 8-1 or 9-0 against the administration, on the constitutional issue. There's a lot of wishful thinking about "they'll make a statutory holding" but i think this will be a sweeping affirmation of the 14th amendment.
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@unaliveolives I think I start with the premise that Trump knew it was going to be difficult but decided it was something they had to try. There was no particular expectation. I did not want a war with Iran but if he solves a generational issue, I understand the upside is massive.
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@realjacobsrival it's pretty clear it's not going according to plan.
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The culture of South Central is now long dead. Rap and John Singleton films are relics of a bygone era. The legacy of violence and poverty will not be missed. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s largely white in a few years time.
Dom Lucre | Breaker of Narratives@dom_lucre
🔥🚨DEVELOPING: White people who are moving into South Central Los Angeles has been getting filmed by locals due them having a hard time believing that the one of the most urban parts of America is now being.’gentrified’ for decades South Central has been dominated by the Black and Hispanic community, I lived in South Central for a summer in 2017, that place is so different from the rest of the U.S. that spotting a White woman with a baby stroller is news.
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@LnkMxwl @mattyglesias He got Europe to pay their fare share to NATO, he made a deal to stop the war in Gaza, Japan relations better than ever. Your unhinged reaction actually proves my point. Just stop criticizing things that are good.
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@realjacobsrival @mattyglesias His foreign policy has been to trash our allies (except Israel), spit in the face of Zelensky, roll out the red carpet for Putin (literally), and start an unecessary war in Iran.
So far only Venezuela has gone well and we still need to see how Maduro's 2nd will rule longterm.
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People find this to be very strange, but I sincerely believe that Donald Trump is extremely bad and that the most important thing in American politics is to defeat him and his movement which means the opposition party should try to take more popular stands.
Cole Sandick🌹🇵🇸🇺🇦🇸🇩@ColeSandick
For all my many complaints about Yglesias I genuinely think most leftists underestimate the extent of his sincerity. He’s a True Believer in popularist centrism in a way that most of his dumber and more intransigent centrist peers aren’t, a strange chaotic neutral contrarianism.
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