Luke Benz

2025 March Madness 👿 Duke 23% 🐯 Auburn 22% 🐊 Florida 17% 🔴 Houston 13% 🐘 Alabama 6% The field 19% lbenz730.shinyapps.io/recspecs_baske…

@Richard37215662 Of course. But my point is getting a 0 win bracket is as hard as getting a perfect bracket at the end of R1. Which there are examples of this year (and most years). Getting a perfect bracket is way way harder

@recspecs730 It will be a 0 on Sunday night.

There are 20 winless brackets thus far. No games correct! That is wild and as impossible as a perfect bracket in the long run.

@Richard37215662 Of course but every year there are and handful of perfect brackets after R1. It’s a 1 in several million proposition not a never in the course of human history

@recspecs730 I agree Luke, but it is still hard to go 0 for 32.

@asap_randall During most years daily or every other day….bur this year has been too busy. Probably will update it once more before march madness

@recspecs730 hey luke. I was just checking out your shinyapp for ncaab. I noticed your projections havent updated since Feb 27. Will they update again ? How often do they usually update ?

@NextJenn993 I'll try

@recspecs730 any chance you'll find the time for the conference tourneys this year?

Late but NCAAM Shiny app: lbenz730.shinyapps.io/recspecs_baske…

@daniel_amoia @statsinthewild0

This is the most hilarious thing I’ve ever seen. Slovakia scored a *huge* goal late to jump Sweden in goal differential. Up 5-3, Sweden tried to pull their goalie to get a goal back. They didn’t. The Slovaks celebrated like they won the game while the Swedes looked dejected.

@mbaprof @IvyHoopsOnline I never got around to getting the site up and running this year between finishing up my PhD around start of season and big move. Might play around with running sims powered by something like KenPom or Torvik and applying appropriate tiebreakers though

@recspecs730 @IvyHoopsOnline Any plans to do this season?

Ivy Madness 2024 cc: @IvyHoopsOnline lbenz730.shinyapps.io/recspecs_baske…

SUPER BOWL BOUND!!!!!!!!

BACK AT THE TOP!

@Stephen_Hill Updated run w/ 2025-26 data so far (PBP Logs, Box Scores, Schedules, Rosters etc.) github.com/lbenz730/ncaah…

@Stephen_Hill Just tried for any given team and seems to be working fine for me. I just patched some minor bugs last week so make sure you are on the most updated dev version if not. I'll run a data update for 2025-26 soon for my data repo.

@recspecs730 Luke, any suggestions on using ncaahoopR to grab all play by play data for the current season? I can use get_pbp, but that seems to be timing out (may be an issue on my end)...

@Stephen_Hill FYI just pushed another fix for shot-logs

@recspecs730 Sounds good. I'll give it another go.

@inpredict I am not actually disputing your point in this case -- totally agree. Just figured you'd find this recent work on a related topic of interest.

@inpredict Have you seen this recent work. Idea is WP% numbers report are P(Win | game state) in that moment. Post-hoc look at the distribution of max WP% obtained by the loser, that's a just a different conditional distribution. wsb.wharton.upenn.edu/a-paradox-of-b… nessis.org/nessis25/Jonat…

has anybody posted the picture of the plane yet

Congrats to (newly minted Doctor) @recspecs730 for defending his dissertation

@LeeSharpeNFL Thanks for the clarification!

@recspecs730 Yeah I assume so. I count future opponents in the total and assume ESPN does not.

Playoff picture and draft order after the Week 9 early window Nflgamedata.com

@LeeSharpeNFL You guys are probably just handling this differently since NE hasn't played at least 4 games against these common opponents yet? Presumably once they hit 4 ESPN would apply this tiebreaker first?

@LeeSharpeNFL Is there a reason your site an ESPN differ on the NE/DEN tiebreaker?