Michael Lopez

Mean or median?

New paper by myself & @Stat_Ron arxiv.org/abs/2603.17866 We introduce a generative modeling framework to evaluate continuous-time player movement against a distribution of frame-level hypotheticals #cmsac #nfl #bigdatabowl #sportsanalytics #ghosting

The 2026 #BigDataBowl featured some of the brightest up-and-coming minds in the @NFL analytics space. Want to be in the mix for 2027? Learn more here: ops.nfl.com/BigDataBowl27 @cfrelund | @gregolsen88 | @awscloud | @StatsbyLopez

2.6 billion to 1 The odds of a perfect mens tournament bracket this year, if you picked based on @kenpom ratings and assume that those ratings represent the true probabilities. That's better odds than last year, where I estimated a 10 billion to 1 chance.

Here's that article. As I've said before, the only surprising thing about last night's strike 3 call is that we keep being surprised by it fivethirtyeight.com/features/every…

Several years back, Brian Mills and I wrote for 538 about how, late in games, MLB umpires change the strike zone in ways that end the game the fastest For the home team, it means a wider strike zone when trailing late.

As a reminder, umpires expand and constrict their strike zones in whatever way ends the game the fastest

@UmpScorecards can you do WBC games

@SethBurn It's funny how the entire Miami (OH) argument is answered by how you prioritize WAB or team strength

I've updated the KenPom WAB's. Working on another project that I hope to complete before Selection Sunday. #gid=0" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@domluszczyszyn Yes

is it too late to back out of the brandon carlo trade

@tangotiger Is it possible to account for "potential overturned calls" or "potential runs gained"? What if they had the best umpiring or their catcher did the best framing?

Tigers are the worst team in Spring Training at using ABS Challenge - tied for 2nd worst in fewest overturned calls (7, Dodgers 5, Twins 30) - last in fewest runs gained (0.6, Cards leading at 5.9 runs) - last in runs per overturn (0.09, A's leading at 0.27)

@MorseCode206 @ZayasRiley Ahhh got it. Thanks Aaron! And appreciate the coverage

@StatsbyLopez @ZayasRiley I made the decision a long time ago to just use D3hoops rankings on our website for consistency sake. NPI is new and not the way things were done even five years ago.

Great day to be a Bobcat

@ZayasRiley @MorseCode206 Reminded me of the 2005 debacle where Bates was No 2 team in country and had to play on road at USM in Sweet 16. That was nearly the first and greatest Bates comeback of all time (down ~20 half, took lead by 5, lost in OT)

@ZayasRiley @MorseCode206 thanks for your coverage! Any sense of why Bates had to host such a highly ranked team? Or, alternatively, why Smith wasn’t a host team?

Women's basketball defeats Smith 74-70 in overtime in all-time classic @NCAADIII tournament game! RECAP: gobatesbobcats.com/news/2026/3/7/… #mesports #d3hoops #GoBates @buntingthompson @d3hoops @d3hoopsville

Big Data Bowl winner @_luccaferraz_ created a brand new way to watch pass defense👀 @NFLFootballOps | #BigDataBowl

The Colts promoted Ashleigh Prugh from Football Analytics Fellow to Football Data Analyst, per source.

New (and 1st) post up on Substack. Creating a better way of ranking games with the help of Claude.......Shannon. Borrowing a concept from information theory, KL-divergence, I create a new version of the Excitement Index that better aligns with how people evaluate the games.

Post: inpredictable.substack.com/p/quantifying-…

@ArifHasanNFL Each time I walk into Prime (cc @Ally_Blake3 @DataWithBliss @ishanidesai11)

Prime 47 has the best steak I've had in Indy but eating there feels so weird bc I only know it as an obnoxiously loud and crowded bar that NFL personnel used to hang out at and it's hard to get that out of my head. What are tables doing here? Chairs? People wearing silk vests??