Michael Lopez

Mean or median?

Why is nobody talking about how the "game has changed" in soccer? Funny how we only hear "analytics ruined the game" when the optimization happens to move farther from the basket... (/s)

@statsinthewild0 @FIFAWorldCup @FIFAcom Are you paid on a per-typo basis?

3pm Eastern Time for the Worlc Cup semi-finals during the work week. @FIFAWorldCup and @FIFAcom are just trying to be incompetent at this point. Day games in Miami in July. Semi-finals during the work day. The Balogun shit. Letting Trump present the trophy. Just stupid stuff

Last call for your chance to work in the @Avalanche analytics department! Data Scientist ballarena.com/careers?gnk=jo… Data Engineer ballarena.com/careers?gnk=jo… Analytics Intern ballarena.com/careers?gnk=jo… Postings are closing in the next few days!

Come work with me in Sac! The team here is fantastic paycomonline.net/v4/ats/web.php…

@RyanPaganetti As a longtime sneak proponent I’ve come back around a bit. 1) Sneaks are done on the short 4th-and-1s but not the long ones 2) Sneaks are done by the QBs good at doing sneaks Both 1) and 2) help overestimate the benefit 3) Sneaks have no upside/right tail for chunk plays

The NFL keeps trying to find reasons not to sneak it. The numbers keep saying: sneak it. Since 2022, on 3rd/4th & 1, or any snap from the 1-yard line: QB sneaks: 81.8% success rate +0.45 EPA/play All other plays: 63.8% success rate +0.03 EPA/play There may not be another play calling decision in football with an edge this large. Among returning play callers, Buffalo is in a tier of its own. A real wild card: Philadelphia, with a new play caller and new offensive line coach. In my time working with Jeff Stoutland, we shared the same view: with 1 yard to go, you could go an entire season calling almost nothing but QB sneaks and probably be better off for it. I’d imagine Jason Kelce would approve of that sentiment, too. A look at which 2026 play callers have leaned hardest into this edge since 2022:

powerful moments in bar chart technology

R16 Predictions

@CausalKathy Shit multiple Moneyballs

@StatsbyLopez "get stepped on" replacing "kick the ball at their hand"

Getting stepped on accidentally becomes the new Moneyball

Wonder what happened 11 players ago

Sports rule of thumb: when you hear a team or player is “x of their last y”, they’re also “x of their last y+1”

This chart is incredible:

Using player tracking data, we can tag the outcome of every touch that reaches the paint and see how often the defender forces his opponent to give the ball up without creating a scoring opportunity for himself or a teammate. Victor Wembanyama did it 153 times this season.

if you're Scotland and wondering whether you'll advance as a third-place team, you can go to your team page and see how much each outcome in every upcoming game helps or hurts you — a truly incredible tool

Elon musk is 49,200 standard deviations above the average American wealth. Statistically, it’s practically impossible to live to see someone like that

We have a new @nytimes investigation out today. SUVs and pickup trucks dominate the roads across the US. And many are bigger — and far deadlier — than ever before. A thread --->

@quastora @KevinQ Trey is back!

@KevinQ @StatsbyLopez We all know this will never happen (good to see you’re still producing excellent work!)

Don't be fooled by "as it stands" World Cup brackets. At best unhelpful, at worst badly misleading here's our current view of who the US might face — nytimes.com/athletic/inter…