Andrew Neil@afneil
For all of my life Russia has tried to decouple Europe from America and break the North Atlantic Alliance. It never succeeded. Instead it lost the Cold War, leaving NATO more powerful than ever.
But now success is staring the Kremlin in the face. All thanks to Donald Trump.
Denmark’s Prime Minister says that if Trump tries to take Greenland by force it would destroy NATO. He’s right, of course. The problem is President Trump doesn’t seem to care.
Previous Presidents have toyed with the idea of acquiring Greenland. Harry Truman even made an offer in 1948 — $1.5 billion in today’s money, since you ask. The Danes turned him down.
But Trump is the first President to threaten force if he can’t get what he wants by negotiation.
Nobody should underestimate the catastrophic consequences for NATO if its leading member annexed the territory of a smaller member. It would be the abnegation of everything NATO is meant to stand for.
Nobody denies Greenland is gaining in strategic importance to America. Melting ice is opening up new sea lanes around it of growing geopolitical and economic significance.
It sits almost midway in the Arctic region between Russia’s northern coast, with its intercontinental ballistic missile bases, and the US mainland. It is on the approach route to America should these missiles ever head this way. It’s why America already has a crucial Space Force base in Greenland.
So when it comes to Greenland the US obviously has skin in the game. But the crucial point is that, in security terms, America can have whatever it wants in Greenland without annexing an ally against its will.
After it turned down Truman, Denmark signed up to the 1951 Greenland Defence Agreement (renewed in 2004). It gives the US the right to build as many bases as it wants and station unlimited numbers of military folk there. During the Cold War around 15,000 US person were based in Greenland. It’s now 200.
Trump claims Greenland is under threat from imminent takeover by China and/or Russia. It isn't, of course.
They haven’t seen a Chinese ship up there for 12 years. But if Trump truly believes it, there's nothing to stop him from ramping up US military assets in Greenland back to Cold War levels or more.
Moreover his European Nato allies are on side – the defence of what's being called the 'High North' does need to be bolstered. That's why they sanctioned some extra troop deployments to Greenland last week, a small first step to increase Nato resources in the Arctic.
But instead of welcoming the move, Trump inexplicably saw it as a threat to America, designed to thwart his ambition to grab Greenland.
So he slapped penal tariffs on the UK and seven other NATO allies. He always puts higher tariffs on America’s friends than its enemies
The Trump administration depicts Greenland as a defenceless frozen waste in danger of being picked off by NATO’s enemies. It’s a nonsense.
Greenland is a self-governing Danish protectorate. As such it is fully covered by NATO security guarantees, including the all-important Article 5 — which says an attack on one of us is an attack on all of us.
Yet Trump still wants to grab Greenland, all part of his mission not just to be Imperial President of the USA but Imperial Overlord of the whole Western Hemisphere.
In an almost deranged message to Norway’s prime minister today he even suggests he’s keener than ever because Norway denied him the Nobel Peace Prize.
There is no dealing with such nonsense. Europe and Canada will need to start preparing for a NATO without America, embracing all the extra defence spending that will entail.
Under Trump America is on the brink of becoming the enemy, not our most important ally. As a lifelong supporter of the US it is chilling to write and say such words.
The stakes could not be higher. As I speak there is despair in European capitals and delight in Moscow. That should tell you everything about the dangerous watershed we’ve now reached.
