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The entire Iran conflict is about Taiwan, and everyone is missing it.
Over the last seven days, since the U.S. attack on Iran began, Chinese military drills over Taiwan have stopped completely. China is the largest buyer of Venezuelan and Iranian oil, and over 80% of Iranian oil exports go to China. At the same time, China’s GDP has been revised down to around 5%, which is likely still an overestimate, and unemployment across the country is a real problem.
Large fluctuations in oil prices would hit China hard, and their economy is already barely holding together.
China is widely theorized to target Taiwan around 2027. There are also militaristic theories that after 2027 it becomes much harder for them to take control of Taiwan as more military staging and deterrence is put in place. On top of that, Taiwan’s terrain is incredibly rough and rugged.
Iran has nothing to do with Iran. Venezuela has nothing to do with Maduro. Both are pressure points aimed at China.
Trump is trying to grab a teetering China and Xi by the balls going into the summit next month, forcing a deal over Taiwan and trying to delay the inevitable invasion. It’s why he seems not to care about the price of Oil, it’s wholly intentional, being used as leverage. There may be no Trump TACO.
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