remove/noise

371 posts

remove/noise banner
remove/noise

remove/noise

@removethenoise

If you lose say nothing, if you win say less.

Katılım Nisan 2018
1.4K Takip Edilen146 Takipçiler
remove/noise retweetledi
Moody
Moody@MoodyWriter13·
As a retail investor juggling a career and family, following people on X who do this full-time and push out a constant stream of supposedly high-return ideas and companies, within an environment where seconds can decide price moves, is a game with clearly uneven odds. It’s roughly like entering a world championship of ass-kicking on one leg: there’s little to win, but a high likelihood of taking a beating. From experience, I can say: life is a lot more pleasant when you choose not to play that game. In the end, a mismatched investment style is just as stressful as a mismatched lifestyle. One way to sidestep this entirely is to pay for a good Substack. In doing so, you’re essentially buying time and reducing noise-related stress. I can say this without bias, as mine is currently still free.
English
12
1
132
6.3K
Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·
THE 7 LAYERS OF PHOTONICS 1. Materials & Wafers (substrate layer) $AXTI, $IQE $WOLF, $COHR, $LWLG 2. Tools (fabrication layer) $ASML, $AMAT, $LRCX 3. Lasers (light generation layer) $LITE, $COHR, $LASR, $SMTC 4. Foundries (manufacturing layer) $TSM, $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $INTC 5. Test, Inspection & Packaging (reliability layer) $AEHR, $VIAV, $ONTO, $AMKR, $FN 6. Optics (module layer) $AAOI, $POET, $GLW 7. Networking (connectivity layer) $CRDO, $MRVL, $AVGO, $ANET, $CIEN
Shay Boloor tweet media
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay

THE OPTICAL PHOTONICS BOTTLENECK As AI clusters scale past copper’s physical limits, the bottleneck shifts to optical & these are the companies building that layer across the stack: 1. $AAOI building the transceiver layer of the AI network through vertically integrated U.S.-based InP laser manufacturing. It has already secured over $200M in its first volume 1.6T order from one hyperscale customer followed by another $124M in 800G orders from a second. 2. $AEHR building the reliability layer for the optical & AI hardware stack through burn-in & test systems. It just received a record $41M follow-on order from its lead hyperscale customer reinforcing the idea that Sonoma is becoming a key production burn-in platform for high-power AI ASICs. 3. $CRDO building the connectivity layer that helps AI clusters move data faster through active electrical cables, retimers & high-speed interconnect silicon. The DustPhotonics acquisition also extends that platform into silicon photonics before copper becomes a real constraint. 4. $LITE building the laser layer of the AI optical stack through EMLs, optical components & optical switching exposure. The setup is backed by a $2B $NVDA strategic investment & optical circuit switch backlog above $400M with orders reportedly extending through 2028. 5. $VIAV building the testing & validation layer of the optical stack through network instrumentation & photonics measurement tools. It is the picks-and-shovels layer of the transition because every high-speed optical buildout still needs to be tested regardless of which transceiver vendor wins. 6. $COHR building one of the core photonics bottlenecks through indium phosphide lasers, optical engines & communications components tied to next-gen AI networking. It also has a $2B $NVDA strategic investment behind it & is doubling InP device capacity into the 1.6T ramp. 7. $MRVL building the DSP & optical infrastructure layer through electro-optics, PAM DSPs, interconnect silicon & custom networking chips. The Celestial AI deal & NVLink Fusion exposure both strengthen its position as photonics becomes more central to AI cluster design.

English
93
645
2.9K
681.2K
SuperDuper Investor
SuperDuper Investor@SuperDuperInvst·
@growthrapidly $VNDA $6.75 $TSSI ~$15 $AOSL $44 $EPOW $0.75 Above few stocks should be way higher in 2 yrs imo
English
3
1
28
2.8K
Joel
Joel@growthrapidly·
In 2 years, which stocks will people wish they bought today? 👀
English
148
5
119
60.3K
remove/noise retweetledi
SuspendedCap
SuspendedCap@ContrarianCurse·
Cut your losers fast is the single most performance accretive thing I’ve forced myself to get better at over the years The only that stops people from doing it is lack of confidence and ego Who fucking cares if you got it wrong. If you got a problem with that then find another career. And who cares about that one stock? Like it rips after? Ok? You can’t find another? On to the next
English
31
30
759
49.2K
remove/noise
remove/noise@removethenoise·
@stonkmane69 @ParadisLabs I agree on everything, but all that is priced in. NVIDIA’s strategy prevents any single vendor from capturing outsized rent. AOSL’s value is valuation compression + net-cash balance sheet, not superior rent capture.
English
1
0
1
33
stonk mane
stonk mane@stonkmane69·
@removethenoise @ParadisLabs Fine company, fine chart, just not better than the rest of the ecosystem in my eyes because of the ability to capture rent.
English
1
0
1
129
Paradis Labs
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs·
How do you make money from $AMZN / $GOOGL spending insane amounts on AI? > McKinsey forecast $5.2T AI capex by 2030 So if AI capex was a country, it'd be the 3rd largest behind only the US/China lol. In 2026 alone -> hyperscalers like $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META + $ORCL are comitting ~$700B. And that spend goes to: 1. 60% -> IT equipment (accelerators, memory, networking, optics, servers) 2. 25% -> data center infra + mechanical/electrical (cooling, PDUs, busways, racks) 3. 15% -> power/grid enablers (3–5+ year transformer lead times, massive interconnection queues) > So how do *you* make money from all of this...? By investing in smaller MC upstream suppliers (e.g. <$10B ish). I.e. suppliers to the hyperscalers. And suppliers to the suppliers. Fairly simple, right? They sit at chokepoints like optics, testing, substrates, and connectivity - solving bottlenecks that GPUs alone can't. And these deliver asymmetric upside since these bottlenecks are where capex dollars translate fastest into revenue/backlog with less competition than $NVDA/ $AVGO scale. Cos after all, stock prices reflect fwd earnings growth. > During the whole AI supercycle, I have favoured names that are in chokepoints w/ hyperscaler proof points/orders. For example: - $AEHR - wafer & package burn-in systems. Record $41M follow-on order (Apr) from lead hyperscaler for custom AI ASICs; H2 FY2026 bookings already >$92M. - $FORM - probe cards & advanced testing for chips/HBM/advanced packaging. Strong HBM & cryogenic probing orders reflected in ~$225M Q1 2026 revenue guidance. - $POET - optical interposer platform for 1.6T. 2026 production ramp & >$5M production orders. - $AAOI - optical transceivers. $200M+ first volume 1.6T order (Mar) + $124M in 800G orders (Mar/Apr) from major hyperscaler w/ shipments ramp Q3–Q4. - $AXTI - monopoly InP substrates for transceiver lasers. Management highlighted strong customer demand, doubling InP capacity in 2026. And there are so many more names where you can trace hyperscaler capex down the supply chain into additional, persisting chokepoints: - $IQE in epiwafers - $LITE & $COHR in photonics - $CAMT & $ONTO in inspection/metrology - $SNDK in memory There are literally hundreds of names globally that sit upstream in the supply chain. But it's all about picking the winners, which is why you want suppliers who have been/are being qualified by hyperscalers downstream. Note - these are NOT buy recommendations, just examples and my opinions.
Paradis Labs tweet media
English
16
29
362
83.1K
remove/noise
remove/noise@removethenoise·
@stonkmane69 @ParadisLabs On what metric? Value: AOSL is the cheapest (1.0–1.5x P/B, 18–22x forward P/E). Balancesht: Only net-cash name with 0 debt. Execution: Real revenue + shipping products + named NVIDIA partner. Torque: Highest beta to the 800V wave that TXN and NVIDIA are flagging as multi-year.
English
1
0
1
75
Moody
Moody@MoodyWriter13·
That is correct, but it only refers to the 200mm RF/power-SOI business (around 90% of GWC’s SOI revenue today). GWC shareholders had concerns about the expiration of the Smart Cut license in 2027, which the CEO had to address and reassure them on. However, this does not mean that GWC has a 300mm photonics SOI platform qualified with a Tier-1 foundry, nor that GWC possesses Smart Cut–equivalent IP for ultra-thin layer transfer. Consequently, it does not imply that GWC can take market share from Soitec in the CPO space. At present, nothing physically indicates this. A legitimate question would be whether technically inferior IP like GWC’s could still be accepted, for reasons of supply chain diversification or to exert pricing pressure on Soitec. However, this would undermine the energy-efficiency advantage of CPO. What could challenge Soitec’s current or future monopoly are weakened patent protection, or over a longer time horizon (2030+) alternative materials such as TFLN or entirely new processes. With the exception of patent protection, these risks are unlikely to become realistic within the next three years. In my view, patent protection remains the most significant potential vulnerability in the next 3 years. For example, NANOLN in China itself states that it uses Smart Cut for TFLN without being a licensee of Soitec, and without Soitec taking legal action against it. This could have several explanations, and any one of them would be concerning. One thing should be clear: as likely as it is that Soitec will maintain a monopoly in the CPO space through 2029, it is equally unlikely that it will persist far beyond that. This should be taken into account in your forecasts, and that competition in the RF/power SOI business is increasing for Soitec, due to GWC e.g. The sale itself may have been fine, the reasoning behind it likely wasn’t.
Bottleneck Investor 🦑@auer_trist24737

Why I sold $SOI? Pretty simple: Soitec is often called a monopoly, because they own the SmartCut IP. So all 300mm SOI wafers are produced by them or through another manufacturer licensing their IP... well until now! In GlobalWafers Q4 earnings call, the CEO, who is a "let my actions speak louder than words" kinda person, reassured, that the licensing deal with Soitec is terminated. And they already have a fab in Missouri, solely dedicated to 300mm SOI manufacturing, up and running in Missouri. For me, this breaks the thesis. If I'd want exposure to EU small caps in the AI infra supply chain, there are better opportunities out there. NFA

English
9
4
126
30.3K
Joe
Joe@joedab12·
@ItsSJTrades I only speak on stocks i've done multiple hours of research on. This isn't one of them.
English
1
0
3
200
Joe
Joe@joedab12·
$AAOI back in for a swing thru earnings. $MXL commentary tonight may help lift AAOI tomorrow too. Still holding majority of my $MXL and picked up some June $40 strike calls on the pullback. $VICR have not sold a single share. Added yesterday sub 260 $RMBS -beautiful move-TAM expansion. Prob cools off soon but not trimming. Atomera-boring hold but 70-80% chance it will pay off in due time. Not expecting news on this coming earnings call May 5th but dont think it needs news to get back to 9-10, simple positive tone on gate all around discussions would do the trick. Also close to receiving $1m or so in gov funding for GaN which would validate the tech at a time when Power and GaN related stocks are strong. $VPG holding all, TSLA commentary lines up with VPG commentary, do think VPG is in Optimus-this has become a 4% weight in my portfolio. $OUST nibbled this robotics play on the pullback, VPG is 10x bigger but I'd add a lot more OUST closer to 20-23 $MU + $DRAM bullish AF and holding all.
English
6
3
110
15.4K
remove/noise retweetledi
bubble boi
bubble boi@bubbleboi·
What a week
English
5
4
93
5.8K
remove/noise
remove/noise@removethenoise·
@yianisz Now compare it to NNDR, see how much better the later is.
English
0
0
1
252
Yiannis Zourmpanos
Yiannis Zourmpanos@yianisz·
$TRT with a $110M market cap, $49M TTM revenue and 82% YoY growth in its most recent quarterly print trades at 2.2x P/S.. it's the cheapest name in the entire AI test/photonics ecosystem. for context $AEHR trades at 62x fwd P/S. Even moving to a conservative 5x P/S on an estimated $50M forward revenue = $250M market cap = $TRT could 2.2X from here..
Yiannis Zourmpanos tweet media
English
21
20
171
28.3K
remove/noise retweetledi
Shual
Shual@0xShual·
Introducing "exit liquidity", the fund
Naval@naval

Introducing USVC - a single basket of high-growth venture capital, for everyone. No accreditation required, SEC-registered, and a very low $500 minimum. Includes OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Sierra, Crusoe, Legora, and Vercel. As USVC adds more companies, investors will own a piece of that too. Liquidity typically comes when companies exit, but we’re aiming to let investors redeem up to 5% of the fund every quarter. This isn’t guaranteed, but if we can make it work, you won’t be locked up like in a traditional venture fund. It runs on AngelList, which already supports $125 billion of investor capital. And I’ve joined USVC as the Chairman of its Investment Committee. — Go back to the 1500s, you set sail for the new world to find tons of gold - that was adventure capital. Early-stage technology is the modern version. It says we are going to create something new, and it’s risky. It’s daring. But ordinary people can’t invest until it’s old, until it’s no longer interesting, until everybody has access to it. By the time a stock IPOs, most of the alpha is gone. The adventure is gone. Public market investors are literally last in line. This problem has become farcical in the last decade. Startups are reaching trillion dollar valuations in the private markets while ordinary investors have their noses up to the glass, wondering when they’ll be let in. Investing in private markets isn’t easy. You need feet on the ground. You need judgment built over years. Most people don’t have the patience to wait ten or twenty years for an investment to come to fruition. But there is no more productive, harder-working way to deploy a dollar than in true venture capital. USVC enables you to invest in venture capital in a broad, accessible, professionally-managed way, through a single basket of innovation, focused on high-growth startups, at all stages. It is how you bet on the future of tech: the smartest young people in the world, working insane hours, leveraged to the max, with code, hardware, capital, media, and community. Your dollar doesn’t work harder anywhere. There is an old line - in the future, either you are telling a computer what to do, or a computer is telling you what to do. You don’t want to be on the wrong side of that transaction. USVC lets you buy the future, but you buy it now. Then you wait, and if you are right, you get paid. Get access here: usvc.com

English
5
25
496
34.2K
Irrational Analysis
Irrational Analysis@insane_analyst·
Great optics piece by Citrini. Few comments before people do stupid things at open... Do not touch HiMax or Poet. Aixtron is best foreign pick. Furukawa second best foreign pick. Nokia is best domestic pick. I was on the fence with Soitec and now a buyer.
English
52
36
807
154.2K