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Raf

@rflrueda

Full-time learner 🇧🇷🇨🇦 #Investments My comments are not investment advice. Do your DD.

Vancouver, British Columbia Katılım Ekim 2015
700 Takip Edilen629 Takipçiler
Forge
Forge@ThetaForgeCo·
I have been working on a @roblox game. I want players to catch a feeling when they enter the raid hall for the first time.. I have been spending a lot of time on the vibes in the raid hall and class design the past few days. No cash grab games here, no pay to win.. just a fun original experience. I want to create Roblox games that don't feel like roblox games. Attention to details, even down to the candle flames and stained glass windows. Does this look like somewhere you'd want to spend time and explore? 🔊 Sound on for feels #robloxdev #robloxgame #roblox #gamedev
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Raf@rflrueda·
@tyler_bosserman Looks like Jefferies position is a put, not that they sold calls. Maybe there is another leg but the picture above doesn’t provide us with clear understanding if they are the counterparty or not.
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Tyler Bosserm🅰️n
Tyler Bosserm🅰️n@tyler_bosserman·
We all saw the news that Baker Bros bought another 5.5m $abcl shares which included 27,362 options. I’m about 99.9% certain that the counterparty in that option transaction is Jeffries. (See screenshots) Not sure why Baker Bros opted to purchase shares this way? Perhaps discretion? If any one knows, please enlighten me. And why would the Baker Bros decide to crack the 10% ownership threshold in $abcl? This isn’t random. It was intentional. For those that don’t know. There are more stringent reporting requirements and trading restrictions placed on folks that own more than 10% of the company because they are officially considered Insiders and are generally getting more nuanced information. Nothing that isn’t publicly disclosed but definitely better insights into management . One example an insider can’t do - they can’t short the stock. There are other things. Baker Bros are basically saying “we aren’t going anywhere. In fact, we plan to stick around for along time”. Said another way, these guys are about as bullish as they come! Feeling really good about the future. We are in for an amazing next 10 years of this works out the way I think it can. They know just about better than anyone what they own. I’ll leave you with this from Bezos, one of the richest people in the world: "Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time." LONG and STRONG!!!
Tyler Bosserm🅰️n tweet mediaTyler Bosserm🅰️n tweet media
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Raf@rflrueda·
@OwlWealthy It is clear they are sandbagging (again). To get to the high end bookings growth guidance, after delivering a 43% YoY Q1 growth, and assuming a 8% growth for Q2 (low-end), Q3 + Q4 growth would need to be 4%. Seems crazy low to me.
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TheWealthyOwl
TheWealthyOwl@OwlWealthy·
$RBLX is getting absolutely crushed after hours. My initial read: this is not about Q1 being weak. The headline numbers were strong. It’s about the 2026 reset: lower bookings guide, age-check friction hitting growth harder than expected, Q2 DAU pressure, and lower FCF expectations. This all matters. No sugarcoating it. With such a large position this is making me quite nervous. But I don’t think one ugly guide automatically breaks the long-term platform thesis. The real question is whether this is a temporary safety/comms transition issue or a deeper hit to Roblox’s social flywheel. I’ll dig through the call and shareholder call over the next couple days and share a more complete thesis check. Long $RBLX since Feb 2022
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The AI Investor
The AI Investor@The_AI_Investor·
22x in 3.5 years. All in large, well-known tech companies with no insider information. No long list of small, under-the-radar companies lacking enough public data to value. I share my thought process along the way with my paid members and some for free on X. What I offer is simply my view on noisy market information, especially from the technical side that many people find confusing. Decades of undergraduate and postgraduate engineering education, along with technical and leadership roles at tech companies, should provide some edge in the market, right?
The AI Investor@The_AI_Investor

My Portfolio has just reached a new ATH YTD % +18.23% 1Y % +228.20% Non-NVDA AI stocks have been killing it. It could have been much higher if I had used more margin. I didn’t expect TACO to be that perfect. Continue to 3x QQQ performance so far this year.

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Jack Prescott
Jack Prescott@JackPrescottX·
March 10 ‘26 - Cattle antibodies identify a cross-serotype broadly neutralising foot-and-mouth disease virus epitope: “PBMCs were thawed and activated in culture to generate memory B cells prior to injection into @AbCelleraBio’s microfluidic screening devices.”
Jack Prescott tweet media
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Raf@rflrueda·
$HIMS should develop the ability to integrate data coming from devices such as Apple Watch, Garmin, Oura Ring, etc with the exams coming from its Labs to expand Health signals tracking. @himshouse @AndrewDudum
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Raf@rflrueda·
@amitisinvesting @Kross_Roads 50% / 50%, because I know I don’t know what is gonna happen, but both seem attractively priced.
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amit
amit@amitisinvesting·
@Kross_Roads Why $NVDA easily over Microsoft?
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amit@amitisinvesting·
Would you rather buy $MSFT or $NVDA at these levels for a one year holding period? $MSFT — $370, -21% YTD, $2.7T MC, 22x FWD PE $NVDA — $179, -5% YTD, $4.3T MC, 21x FWD PE
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Raf@rflrueda·
@BrianFeroldi What was the earnings growth expectations at prior bear market bottoms? How comparable is it with the current earnings growth expectations?
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Raf@rflrueda·
@KreekCraft You should stop behaving like this. They are providing the means to improve the ads to brands and creators and they should charge for that. As far as I know Roblox is not a charity.
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Raf@rflrueda·
@Leonardootero61 Assisti dia 20. Parabéns pelo resultado do ano e por todos esses anos performando.
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Leonardo Otero
Leonardo Otero@Leonardootero61·
Quem quiser acessar nosso call do 4T25 de ontem vou deixar o link no comentário. Entre outros assuntos, fizemos a retrospectiva dos nossos investimentos nessas quatro empresas (MAGs) - na época não eram chamadas assim e "tecnologia não tem barreira de entrada" -- A Fábrica de Monopólio: A tese em 2015 era que o mercado digital/internet permitia um nível de dominância impossível no mundo físico: enquanto o Walmart nunca controlou metade do varejo tradicional, a Amazon conquistou metade do e-commerce americano. Os investidores subestimavam o tamanho e a durabilidade do crescimento que essas empresas poderiam entregar. O mercado era gigante. O Google está na nossa carteira desde a cota 1 e foi uma das nossas maiores posições desde então. A Microsoft compramos em 2016 quando negociava a apenas 10 vezes lucro, eles tinham perdido o "mobile" eram dados como mortos. Olhando para frente: acredito que estamos vivendo uma nova aceleração impulsionada pela inteligência artificial. Se eu estiver correto, o mercado está repetindo o erro de 10 anos atrás ao considerar essas empresas maduras demais para crescer em um ritmo acelerado. É possível continuarmos compondo capital a taxas de 20% ao ano com elas, tomando um risco baixíssimo - a $MSFT tem um custo de dívida igual ao treasury americano. Quanto vale isso?
Leonardo Otero tweet media
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Raf@rflrueda·
@10xValueMind Great points, however IMO, clinic validation was already achieved with the COVID-19 antibody therapies bamlanivimab and bebtelovimab.
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Inquisitive Investor | Sumit
Inquisitive Investor | Sumit@10xValueMind·
biology has a near infinite problem space (targets, pathways, diseases). most biotechs take one shot at one molecule at a time and that is risky because a failure often sinks the whole company. a great company does not think that way but it attacks the problem as a scalable engine. $abcl is that scalable engine. a platform that can repeatedly generate new molecules with: a) speed b) accuracy c) manufacturability d) de-risked chemistry is fundamentally different from a one drug biotech. what makes $abcl amazing is that the tech stack directly attacks three historically slow choke points in antibody drug development: 1. target -> antibody (discovery) 2. antibody -> manufacturable drug (CMC + developability) 3. IND -> clinical material (GMP + scale) most biotechs only own step 1 and rely on partners for step 2 and 3. that is quite expensive and slow. $abcl started similarly with partnerships wherever needed. with smart capital allocation: spend where it is necessary and retain optionality everywhere else. moreover, unlike most, they are verticalizing the whole lifecycle and eventually, they would not need to depend on partners at all. and here is a reality check most do not appreciate: if $abcl were going to run out of cash and die, it would have happened already. the way this management has paced discovery, partnerships and spend shows capital discipline. they have bought themselves time. the platform is already producing molecules. in approx 16 months, $abcl added 3 internal molecules and soon they will have the 4th one - that is one molecule would be generated every 5-6 months. let’s do the comparison: a) small biotech : 1 program every 3-4 years b) mid biotech : 1 - 2 programs per year c) big pharma : 3 - 5 programs per year project that forward: by 2035, $abcl could easily have 20+ internal molecules advancing across different stages. even if clinical success rates are modest - say approx 10%, the expected value math still works because: velocity * probability * TAM = value you do not need blockbuster success on every single program. you just need shots on goal and time. $abcl has both. the one thing missing today is clinical validation in humans - that is what ABCL575, ABCL635 and ABCL688 represent. if one of those shows meaningful data, the market will stop valuing $abcl as a story and start valuing it as a platform with proven translatability. when that happens, it would not just lift that molecule. it will lift the whole pipeline and everything the engine can generate afterward and the platforms re-rate would happen with that one proof. i am not thinking of the timely catalyst as it requires patience. but the way $abcl is moving forward and architecting their scalable engine, i believe it would continuously create asymmetric optionality. and that’s why i believe $abcl will see success with at least one molecule within the next decade not because i am certain but because the mechanics of the setup favor outcomes over time. NFA.
Inquisitive Investor | Sumit tweet media
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Raf@rflrueda·
@LocktimusSlime @JackPrescottX @AbCelleraBio Don’t forget about Abdera’s Phase 1 which received Fast Track and orphan drug designated, expected to have the study completion by Jan 2027. Abcelera has royalties and also likely a ~3-5% stake in Abdera.
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Locktimus Slime 🐍
Locktimus Slime 🐍@LocktimusSlime·
@JackPrescottX @AbCelleraBio Agreed 100% and don’t forget, we are getting a 4th molecule at Q4 earnings and I like the chances of that also being a GPCR targeting antibody as well
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Jack Prescott
Jack Prescott@JackPrescottX·
March ‘25 | UATX | @AbCelleraBio CEO Carl Hansen discusses the stock falling from $70 to $2 and drops one of the most impactful statements I’ve come across: “What other people are telling you is valuable is not what you should pay attention to…. You really need to look inward and ask yourself ‘What are the the real examples, the pieces of data, the things that I can see and touch and feel that tell me I’m on the right track so that I have feedback’ because if you listen to others, not just on public markets but in your life, if you listen to others, you will be blown off course”.
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Christopher Bloomstran
Christopher Bloomstran@ChrisBloomstran·
The CFA Institute is no longer the outstanding organization it was when I joined upon earning my charter 31 years ago. If you are a CFA charterholder and have not yet voted your proxy (deadline this Monday the 21st at noon Eastern) or may consider changing your vote, or are simply interested in an opinion as to how a once-great advocate for financial education, advocacy and ethics is failing a large proportion of its membership, please read on. Please also resend this message. I’ll get to the important proxy vote and bad governance on display shortly, which I hope all charterholders take the time to vote, but first, many likely saw the CFA Institute’s Chief Marketing Officer “allegedly” embezzled nearly $5 million from the Institute from 2016 to 2024, including $150k for an engagement ring, and another $1 million from another employer. He was indicted on June 23 by the Manhattan DA. Despite immediate media coverage, the institute waited more than two weeks to address the disaster with its membership and on July 8 finally sent an incredibly tone-deaf email update from its President and CEO, Margaret Franklin, CFA, paid $1.4 million compensation by the Institute in 2024. The accused embezzling CMO was earning $500k annually. The message took zero accountability, other than suggesting it would do better. As an institution that holds itself out as an exemplar of ethics, integrity, and that administers the CFA examination program, which focuses on accounting, financial statement analysis and ethics, among other subject matter, a failure to detect fraud over eight years is beyond a financial-controls black eye. It serves to destroy the CFA brand, already under assault from the way the organization sitting atop the membership and local member societies is managed and governed. The CFA membership received another email message from President and CEO Franklin three days later on July 11 which encouraged the members to vote their proxies. They need a quorum. Franklin is an infrequent direct communicator. I find only a New-Year’s message over the past two years from her in my inbox. Franklin’s urge to vote notes, “By voting, you and or your colleagues around the world will be electing a chair, vice chair, and governors to serve on the Board, and additional proposals related to Board governance.” The “additional proposals” the President and CEO FAILS TO DISCUSS are bylaw changes serving to grotesquely strip the membership and local societies of representation. The members and societies are the bedrock of the organization and for whom the President and CEO serves, and this year’s proxy initiatives are a perfect illustration of governance gone haywire. The proposals are an embarrassment to the Institute but more importantly to all 211,000 CFA charterholders globally. Specifically, proposals 1a, 1c, and 1d shift the election of the Chair and Vice Chair from the membership to the current CFA Institute Board, concentrating power within the Board and diluting the perpetually diminished role that members and societies play in shaping the direction of their global association. The proposals erode membership democracy, weakening transparency and member engagement in governance decisions. I voted AGAINST. Proposal 1e merges the Nominating and Governance Committees, restricting its composition to only current Governors. This removes multiple non-Governor perspectives, including two from the membership’s elected Presidents Council Representatives, PCRs. It is obscene that the current Board would introduce a proposal to self-select nominees to serve on the Board. Of course a one-sided, like-minded Board will work to perpetuate itself. Stunning. Between the four proposals the Board nominates itself and solely elects its Chair and Vice Chair. I voted AGAINST. 1/3
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rss.nicho
rss.nicho@GiadaNicholas·
dailyhive.com/vancouver/abce… $ABCL #AbCellera Even if it's old, read it carefully because it will help you understand the REAL interest the Canadian government has in AbCellera. It MAY SEEM like things are moving slowly and there aren’t any major players involved, but you’re VERY wrong — MASSIVELY wrong.
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Linden
Linden@iHooghvorst·
Which funds are hoarding $ABCL shares in the Q1’25 13F filings — and who is not? Bought: - UBS Group AG increased its position by 157% to 5,082,183 shares. They now own 3.22% of AbCellera. They are the world’s largest private bank, managing the largest amount of private wealth globally. - Tang Capital slightly increased its holdings by 0.67% to 2,600,000 shares (0.87% ownership of AbCellera). - Renaissance Technologies raised its position by 16% to 2,894,029 shares (0.83% ownership). - Citadel Advisors increased their position by 203% to 1,814,474 shares. Held: - Baker Brothers maintained their position with 27,525,640 shares (they are the second-largest shareholder with 9.24% ownership; first one is Carl Hansen, the CEO). - Orbimed continues to hold 4,180,768 shares (1.4% ownership). Closed: - Opaleye Management sold all 965,000 shares at $2.90 (they previously held 0.2%). - Adar1 closed its position by selling 14,981 shares at $2.90. These are some meaningful institutional moves that I believe provide some insight into the interest around AbCellera. Shoutout to @brooks_david3 for sharing several of these 13F filings.
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Raf@rflrueda·
@iHooghvorst @JeanPGelinas @JackPrescottX Not yet IMO, as based on trading volume in about 5 days shorts could close their position. However, any good news can put some additional upward pressure to prices IMO.
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