@Fxhedgers Whether you accept it does not matter.
If Trump accepts it, that is enough.
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莱薾校长
740 posts
莱薾校长
@ricnjun
| 局势锐评 别听官媒怎么说，看资本怎么做。 专撕全球局势背后的“潜规则”。 辛辣点评，偶尔预测，往往很准。 🔥 来看真相。
Katılım Ocak 2011
78 Takip Edilen63 Takipçiler
@zerohedge Once Hormuz is disrupted, Asia is always first in line to feel the pain.
It is the most dependent on Middle Eastern energy, the first to face feedstock shortages, and the first place where a supply shock turns into demand destruction and industrial cutbacks
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While everyone is focusing on the supply side of energy, here is what nobody is discussing (yet): demand is falling off a cliff, as either prices are too high, or there simply aren't any physical inputs. First in Asia:
With over half of Japan's naphtha imported, petrochemical producers are trimming output:
- Mitsubishi Chemical and Mitsui Chemicals have reduced ethylene runs
-Sumitomo Chemical may delay restarting Keiyo Ethylene and expects reduced rates even after restart.
South Korea is also seeing pressure build across the sector.
- YNCC, one of the region’s largest ethylene producers, has declared force majeure and is running its cracker at significantly reduced rates.
- Both Lotte Chemical and LG Chem have warned customers that they may follow, and the government has temporarily designated naphtha an “economic security item” to manage dwindling stocks.
In China, Sinopec has cut March refinery runs by about 10% to conserve crude stocks.
- A Shell–CNOOC joint venture has shut its Huizhou ethylene cracker and told customers that polyethylene shipments are suspended indefinitely effective March 5
- Wanhua Chemical has declared force majeure for Middle Eastern customers amid severe LPG feedstock disruptions.
In Indonesia, Chandra Asri is operating at reduced rates and has declared force majeure following a sudden halt in feedstock arrivals.
In Taiwan, Formosa Plastics Group’s Taiwan Petrochemical declared force majeure on March 10 and indicated that, if shortages worsen, volumes will be allocated based on actual availability.
India suspended shipments of LPG to commercial operators to prioritize supplies for households, leading to worries from hotels and restaurants that they may be forced to close.
zerohedge@zerohedge
Demand Destruction Has Arrived zerohedge.com/markets/demand…
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The Houthis jumping up with threats now looks a lot like a bid for relevance.
The war has not fully landed on them yet, but they are already signaling: “we can open another front too.”
In plain English, this is not just about loyalty to Iran.
It is about making sure they are not left without attention, leverage, or a place in the fight.
Whether they can actually change the war is another question
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🇮🇷🇾🇪 Senior Houthi official warns attacks are "coming soon" and tells Arab states not to intercept missiles from Iran and its allies.
The Houthis just announced themselves as the next front in this war.
As if nine countries weren't enough, Iran's Yemeni proxy is about to make it ten...
Source: AJA
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 DOJ seized four domains linked to Iranian intelligence used for hacking and influence operations on American soil. The war isn't just missiles and drones. Tehran has been fighting a cyber war inside the U.S. simultaneously and the DOJ just pulled the plug on part of it. Source: @ILRedAlert
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@KobeissiLetter Everyone is terrified of being left behind. It’s a global "Gold Rush" where the gold isn't just money—it's Data, Compute, and Control.
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BREAKING: The value of US data centers under construction has officially surpassed the value of office buildings under construction for the first time in history.
Data centers under construction are up+29% YoY, to a record $45.1 billion.
Meanwhile, the value of offices under construction are down -13%, to $43.5 billion, the lowest since October 2015.
Since November 2022, when ChatGPT was launched, data center construction is up +228%.
Over that same period, office construction is down -38%.
AI is reshaping the US economy.
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In the age of information overload, slogans are often louder than anything else.
The pitch is $100 billion and the promise is to “transform manufacturing with AI.”
The story is huge, and the vision sounds great,
but the louder the slogan, the more obvious it is that people are still waiting for something real to land.
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Bezos Plots Colossal $100 Billion Fund To Transform Companies Using AI: WSJ zerohedge.com/ai/bezos-plots…
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Interesting.
The midterms are not even here yet, and they are already rushing to put Trump on a circulating $1 coin and commemorative gold coins.
You could wait until after the midterms.
Unless deep down you know that confidence may not look the same once voters speak.
Charlie Savage@charlie_savage
The Treasury Department is hurtling forward with minting what will now be three different coins with Trump's picture on them -- a $1 that will circulate and two commemorative 24k gold ones nytimes.com/2026/03/19/us/…
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@charlie_savage @nytimes Interesting.
The midterms are not even here yet, and they are already rushing to put Trump on a circulating $1 coin and commemorative gold coins.
You could wait until after the midterms.
Unless deep down you know that confidence may not look the same once voters speak.
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The Treasury Department is hurtling forward with minting what will now be three different coins with Trump's picture on them -- a $1 that will circulate and two commemorative 24k gold ones nytimes.com/2026/03/19/us/…
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🚨 JUST IN: Iranians are DEFYING THE IRGC, REFUSING to wear hijabs, dancing and celebrating as the regime continues to get bombed into oblivion
They know the time is coming! 🇺🇸🇮🇷
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@MarioNawfal Do not blame everything on a U.S.-Iran war.
Even without this war, Vance still likely would not win in 2028.
This is not just about one event —
it is about his own lack of political pull
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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The Iran war is already shaping 2028
Vance hasn't decided whether to run in 2028, telling close associates his fourth child coming this summer and family life take priority.
But the people around him are already gaming out how this war defines the next Republican primary.
If the conflict drags on for months, whoever seeks the GOP nomination will have to answer for it.
Vance built his political identity on opposing forever wars.
Now he's the vice president of an administration running one.
Every week Operation Epic Fury continues, the distance between his brand and his record grows wider.
Source: WaPo
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇮🇷🇾🇪 Senior Houthi official warns attacks are "coming soon" and tells Arab states not to intercept missiles from Iran and its allies. The Houthis just announced themselves as the next front in this war. As if nine countries weren't enough, Iran's Yemeni proxy is about to make it ten... Source: AJA
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@MarioNawfal They’re begging for $200 billion more,
while blowing through $93.4 billion in a single month on things like ice cream machines, sushi tables, steak, and lobster.
That doesn’t look like a “defense emergency.”
It looks like war as the excuse and the budget as the feast.
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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Pentagon just asked for $200 BILLION more in defense spending.
For insane comparison: Ukraine itself has spent roughly $180–200 BILLION on its own war effort over 4 full years (defense budgets skyrocketed from ~$7B pre-war to $65B+ annually in 2023–2025)
So one extra US defense year ≈ 4 years of Ukraine funding its own survival against Russia.
That’s not just wild, it’s fucking astronomical.
Sources: WSJ / SIPRI / Ukrainian budget reports
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇫🇷 Macron flatly refuses to help force open the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. is carrying this war almost entirely alone, and the allies who depend most on that oil are the ones sitting it out.
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@MarioNawfal Let’s be honest: France wants the result, but not the cost.
If the strait reopens and oil prices calm down, everyone benefits.
But when it’s time to send forces, take risks, and carry the blame, they disappear.
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🚨🇫🇷 Macron flatly refuses to help force open the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. is carrying this war almost entirely alone, and the allies who depend most on that oil are the ones sitting it out.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱 Missile debris landed in northern Israel after an Iranian strike, showing how even interceptions can still cause damage on the ground.
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To put it bluntly, international law is like a neighborhood pact with no police to enforce it. When everyone agrees, it carries weight; when they fall out, it becomes nothing more than a weapon in a shouting match.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇪🇸 Spain's PM calls the Iran war "illegal" with "no justification": "Europe stands for multilateralism and international law. This war is causing massive damage."
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@MarioNawfal International law is like a neighborhood agreement without a police force. When everyone agrees, it's powerful; when they don't, it becomes a rhetorical battlefield.
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🇪🇸 Spain's PM calls the Iran war "illegal" with "no justification":
"Europe stands for multilateralism and international law.
This war is causing massive damage."
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱 Missile debris landed in northern Israel after an Iranian strike, showing how even interceptions can still cause damage on the ground.
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@FoxNews That is a classic bit of diplomatic charm! It’s always fascinating to see how high-level leaders use personal touches to break the ice. This specific compliment—noting Barron Trump’s height and good looks while crediting both parents—is a masterclass in "reading the room."
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JAPANESE PM SANAE TAKAICHI draws laughs with birthday wish for Barron Trump:
"Tomorrow is the birthday of your son, Mr. Barron Trump, and I know he has grown up so much into a very tall, good-looking gentleman."
"And when I see you, Donald, it is very clear where he got it — Of course, from his parents. There's no doubt about it."
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Israel plays bad cop, Trump plays good cop.
One pushes the crisis upward, the other steps in to hit the brakes.
That is not a split — it is a division of labor:
Israel applies the pressure, Trump manages the fallout, reassures allies, and calms markets
zerohedge@zerohedge
NETANYAHU: ISRAEL ACTED ALONE AGAINST SOUTH PARS; PRESIDENT TRUMP ASKED US TO HOLD OFF ON FUTURE SUCH ATTACKS
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@zerohedge Israel plays bad cop, Trump plays good cop.
One pushes the crisis upward, the other steps in to hit the brakes.
That is not a split — it is a division of labor:
Israel applies the pressure, Trump manages the fallout, reassures allies, and calms markets
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@SawyerMerritt @SpaceX SpaceX will ultimately deliver millions of tons to the Moon to build a self-growing city there and same for Mars
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NEWS: NASA is planning a bigger @SpaceX Moon mission role using Starship, in a massive blow to Boeing.
With the new proposal, Boeing's SLS would no longer be used to boost Orion close to the moon. Instead, Starship and Orion would dock in Earth orbit, giving Starship the pivotal role of propelling the capsule to the moon’s orbit, before taking astronauts down to the surface. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Here we go again with “international law.”
International law is not useless — it only works when powerful states choose to enforce it.
This statement looks less like action and more like groundwork for action.
If they’re serious, stop issuing statements and send ships to Hormuz.
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You talk like seven dragons, but when it’s time to act, you move like seven worms.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇮🇷 7 nations slammed Iran in a joint statement: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan & UK condemn attacks on ships, energy sites & the Strait of Hormuz shutdown. They’re calling it a violation of international law and saying they’re ready to step in to keep the strait open and to draw a red line on global oil lifelines. What does this mean? So far, just PR. I'll believe it when it happens. Source: Al Jazeera
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@MarioNawfal Here we go again with “international law.”
International law is not useless — it only works when powerful states choose to enforce it.
This statement looks less like action and more like groundwork for action.
If they’re serious, stop issuing statements and send ships to Hormuz.
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🇮🇷 7 nations slammed Iran in a joint statement:
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan & UK condemn attacks on ships, energy sites & the Strait of Hormuz shutdown.
They’re calling it a violation of international law and saying they’re ready to step in to keep the strait open and to draw a red line on global oil lifelines.
What does this mean? So far, just PR. I'll believe it when it happens.
Source: Al Jazeera
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 65% of Americans think Trump will order a ground war in Iran. Only 7% actually want it. 77% of Republicans support the airstrikes, just 6% of Democrats do. 55% oppose sending any ground troops at all. Meanwhile, plans for troops near Iran’s coast and Kharg Island (90% of its oil exports) are already being discussed. Source: Reuters
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