walter

@sershokunin oooo

a week premature and no conviction because brent-wti collapsed even more before exploding but clearly spending a cycle learning about oil was a lot more +EV than chasing basis can't make the same mistake on natgas now

Equity bears are at the brink of insanity given resilience in the indices, but odds of a breakdown are increasing now. Equities top slowly as passive flows and rotational dynamics can hold up indices for a long time. There are many structural forces rigged to push them higher, and thus it takes a lot to make them go down. Over the course of an equity bull market, buy-the-dip behavior continually gets reinforced, and the majority of capital will be controlled by adherents to this mantra. In theory, the longer prices remain coiled, the larger the move once they exit the range. This nuke in gold suggests there are liquidity issues brewing under the surface. It feels like a preview of what is going to happen to crowded trades. My theory is the Middle East is selling gold to shore up capital, as they have lost their revenue, and have many expenses around defence. They will also need to rebuild lost energy infra, and eventually, new pipelines to reroute around Hormuz. The buyback window is starting to close, and the sugar rush of higher-than-usual tax refunds is starting to fade. Retail has been a key marginal buyer of equities in these past weeks, and the fading of the tax refund tailwind is critical. The market is gradually coming to terms with the fact that this conflict may last for a long time. On a conventional level, the US and Israel have completely dominated Iran, but Iran has an asymmetric edge when it comes to controlling world oil prices through Hormuz. Trump can still end it, but the issue is that the US cannot simply leave, a ceasefire with Iran must be struck in order to guarantee that Hormuz is reopened. In order to strike a ceasefire, Iran wants to see a guarantee that the US and Israel won't attack them again (at a bare minimum), and it will be difficult for the US to get Israel to agree to that. Trump is used to being able to quickly maneuver according to his whims, as he did with tariffs, but the complex interlocking physical realities of war are different. Oil shocks often contribute to the end of bull markets, since they constrain consumer spending, hit manufacturing, and lower the ability of central banks to offer support. Indeed, the Fed came out slightly hawkish yesterday, and Powell also hinted that he may stay in his Governor seat post his role as Chair ending, which would constrain Trump's plans to unleash liquidity. We have a stronger dollar and long duration bond yields are going up over the world, which tightens liquidity. The Middle East is tight on money now and they were the marginal bidder in many assets. In particular, they were a key funder for AI capex through their investments in the frontier labs. They've been 40-50% of recent big rounds. Remember other deep pockets like Softbank are close to being tapped out. Any dollar that goes into these rounds will have to come out of something else, like liquid stocks (look at my pinned post for this broader thesis). And if we have any signs of risk to AI capex expectations, this will be a major shift that the market needs to contemplate. I've said this before, but puts are a difficult way to express bearish equity views because timing is so uncertain. Equities can hold on for a long time, because they are structurally rigged to go higher. Easier expressions are simply being in cash, or gradually shorting cash stocks over time, which helps avoid getting chopped. This is a very difficult market, stay safe out there.

@Jh0L0w it's very vibey

@ringwraith10 you're long natgas too?

@arush oh man

@CrankedDegen first principles always win

@ringwraith10 Payed my fees to the market to be educated on this spread dynamics. Got cucked hard being on the wrongside. Nonetheless, learnt quite a bit about trading oil these past few weeks.

@So1geking makes the ADR more of a necessity then to get val higher

@ringwraith10 How do they respond to this though Potential demand destruction x.com/paoloardoino/s…

SK Hynix wants to use the ADR to close the val gap to US memory names ADR needs SEC review and exchange approval, so at least 6 months out from potential listing xyz:SKHX has this window to capture all the latent retail + inst demand just needs a CL moment

@crypto_condom + EWZ perhaps @tradexyz

EBITDA beat on earnings as predicted yesterday. Calls up 95%. Now almost a free trade. $AGRO will continue its re-rating on: 1) Urea/fertilizer shortage due to Hormez will increase revenue return due to rising commodity prices 2) Direct Vaca muerta access providing cheap NG for accelerated urea production. The CEO has already hinted at plans to 2x urea production (announcement likely causes next major price bump) Dont bet against @tether.

@ericonomic best configured on a per asset basis / per day imo > xyz100 fees cannot be raised > skhx fees can

A lot of people have been bullish on HIP-3, but nobody is talking about what will happen once Growth Mode ends. Assuming Hyperliquid doubles the current HIP-3 volume, the fees generated by HIP-3 would go from around $250k/day to $2.5M/day. Personally, I think it will take a while for traders and volumes to become more sticky, and I don’t think many people will leave after it’s disabled.

@stalequant @sasuke___420 lolll

google seems to disclose searches to other users with the same IP address via search suggestions. is this intended behavior? is there someone at google that I should tell about this?

@GLC_Research @HyperliquidR tinkering

@HyperliquidR @ringwraith10 Nice article @ringwraith10, looking forward to the next one ;))

How HIP-3 Korea Perps Onboard Institutions? Written by @ringwraith10 "Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 perps for Samsung and SK Hynix have a path to become the missing layer: the US-hours reference price that the rest of the stack can anchor to. Who needs this reference price? ETF market makers and emerging markets macro funds, institutions and traders who had no reason to touch perps until now." hyperliquidr.xyz/post/how-hip3-…

HIP-3 is proving to be quite sticky. HIP-3 perps market retention rate is >60% even 3 months post-onboarding. This is extremely high for a trading application and even high for consumer fintech apps in general As you can see in the chart, there is a drastic difference between the 3-month cohort retention for HIP-3 markets (~64%) and crypto perps (~27%) There are likely a lot of reasons for this. Some that come to mind: - Traditional assets more pleasant to trade than crypto which suffers from extreme volatility, market manipulation, and scam tokens - Perps are a far better way to express leverage than short-term options for most traders, yet they are a novel instrument not currently offered elsewhere (with real adoption) on equities, commodities, etc. - Macro and flows are always in flux. One day you want to trade silver, the next day you might want to trade oil. HIP-3 allows traders to access all markets on one unified platform - Hyperliquid trading UI is far superior to that of legacy platforms. Not even just for perps, but as a trading terminal in general. This is a new experience for non-crypto natives who are onboarded via HIP-3 User stickiness is one of the most important metrics for any business, and even more so when dealing with a platform that experiences such massive network effects. I expect to see continued onboarding (and retention) of users to Hyperliquid via HIP-3 markets, resulting in deeper liquidity, more tradable markets, and continued UX improvement via features like BLP and portfolio margin The house of all finance cc @0xren_cf @ryohhno for this great data Hyperliquid

@allaboutvol relics of the past

@ringwraith10 so cool to see caps being hit

OI caps are now causing mispricings on hip3 USA500 is trading at a 15bp discount, but at its cap of $50m > means discount cannot be arbed, except by those with existing shorts a parameter refresh is on the cards for dreamcash

@0xMerp think hl actually does comparatively more brent 2:1 on hl whereas 5:1 on cme

@ringwraith10 makes senses, is the volume ratio similar i wonder

pretty ironic that while HIP is being used as price discovery for the oil market the CL contract is doing much more volume than the BRENTOIL contract CL tracks the WTI which is based off US oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma the brent contract is used as the international reference point and is much more vulnerable to direct impact from the Hormuz situation

@Citrini7 wow this was posted when futures were open

The “Trump said to stop being a panican” countertrend rally has begun

@ColeGotTweets hyperliquid sports betting

@ringwraith10 Hyperliquid

we will quickly see human gameplay optimization up to our biological capabilities this generation's deep blue vs kasparov moment is here but sports are not the final frontier