RipeMango

4.6K posts

RipeMango

@ripemango22

Journey with me to whale together.

Katılım Ağustos 2009

2K Takip Edilen679 Takipçiler

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Serenity@aleabitoreddit·28 Mar

Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.

5k to 5000k@Ud197601

@aleabitoreddit @BitcoinAIGuy Do you mind sharing a core diversified list for those looking to allocate smaller accounts? Under $250k? Wasnt sure if your list has changed from recent macro events

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The Future Investors@ftr_investors·22 Mar

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Serenity@aleabitoreddit·17 Mar

The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet: $SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers) $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry $NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO $HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays $POET - Optical Interposers $SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates $FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly $MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs $LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials. $GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement $BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others. Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit? If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment. The alpha is capturing the rotation: From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO. Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles. But that are in the next. Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples. Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI. But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck. The capital rotation is inevitable.

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Pep Invest@PepInvestStocks·1 Mar

3 HIDDEN BANGER 🔥 $AEHR Silicon Carbide is eating the EV world alive - and Aehr Test Systems is the company making sure every single chip actually works before it hits your car. No Aehr = no quality control. They’re the invisible backbone of the EV revolution. Slept on. Not for long. $AAOI Applied Optoelectronics is riding the AI data center wave HARD. They make the laser components that move data at the speed of light inside hyperscale data centers. Every time you use ChatGPT, something AAOI-adjacent is working overtime. $AXTI AXT Inc. grows the exotic semiconductor substrates - Indium Phosphide, Germanium, Gallium Arsenide - that power 5G, fiber optics, and space tech. Not financial advice.

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Serenity@aleabitoreddit·1 Mar

Elon is completely right when he sounds the alarm that power/grid is vital for US dominance in AI. My call for the once in a lifetime run for $XLU (grid/power utilities ETF) is playing out real time. New calls are already up ~100%+ in the week alone. Power generation and the grid is a measurement of industrial capacity and the US has every motivation to modernize and expand it.

Elon Musk@elonmusk

Electricity output is the single best proxy for industrial capacity

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Yiannis Zourmpanos@yianisz·27 Şub

Since you asked for it here it is the full photonics map.. Photonics is the nervous system of AI infra. GPUs like $NVDA and accelerators from $AMD do the compute. But once you scale to thousands of chips inside hyperscaler clusters ( $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $META), the real bottleneck becomes how fast those chips talk to each other. That’s optical interconnect, moving data with light instead of copper. Why this matters now: AI models have exploded in size. When you train at scale, network bandwidth and latency become the constraint. Copper can’t handle the power and heat at 800G and 1.6T speeds. So hyperscalers are aggressively shifting to optics. That shift cascades through layers: Layer 1 – InP substrates Light starts with indium phosphide. Players like $AXTI sit here. Layer 2 – Epitaxy (growing laser wafers) This is where laser structures are formed. $IQEPF and $COHR operate here. Layer 3 – Laser chips (EML / CW lasers) The actual light sources. $LITE, $COHR, $MTSI, $AVGO. Layer 4 – Silicon photonics foundry Where light is routed and modulated on chips. $TSEM, $GFS, $INTC Layer 5 – Integration / optical engines Combining lasers and silicon photonics. $POET, $ALMU. Layer 6 – Test & burn-in Ensuring reliability at extreme speeds. $AEHR (wafer-level burn-in), $FORM (probe), $KEYS (measurement). Layer 7 – Transceiver modules (800G / 1.6T) The pluggable units deployed in racks. $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, $FN. What’s happening structurally: Demand is outrunning supply. Companies like $COHR are expanding InP capacity. $AAOI has said revenue is constrained by production, not demand. There’s a global laser shortage. When that happens, margins migrate upstream. The tightest layer in the stack gets pricing power first. Most investors focus on Layer 7 (modules). The real leverage often sits deeper — InP capacity ( $AXTI), epi supply ( $IQEPF), laser scaling ( $LITE, $COHR), and yield control ( $AEHR). Photonics isn’t just “another AI trade” It’s the physical constraint that determines whether AI clusters actually work at scale.

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Serenity@aleabitoreddit·25 Şub

$AXTI has now reached the Moon if you listened anon? Markets are scrambling to get exposure to photonics supply chains following $GOOGL record capex numbers. If you ask an AI: “Is AXT or IQE part of Google TPU supply chains”: - It will say no due to obscured multi-hop connections. But if you map the flow from: $AXTI ($2.1B) -> $IQE ($150M) -> $LITE -> Hyperscaler ASICs… You might discover something early that markets haven’t priced in.

Serenity@aleabitoreddit

Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies: 1. $AXTI ($700M) 2. $SMTOY ($31.7B) Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates. Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers. $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR use for EMLs for 800G/1.6T transceivers, DFB lasers, and other optical infra. Without InP substrates, the supply chain falters. After looking at TPU BOM to Maia BOM, it looks like future ASICs + GPUs + hyperscaler deployments are heavily reliant on photonics. And two vendors could freeze the global InP substrate market covering nearly all of: - Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc) - Optical transceivers (5g, data) - LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military) -Optical Modules (interconnect clusters) - Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use InP CW laser arrays.) Since these companies make up majority of the market supply: -AXTI (est. ~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%) That’s it. (eg. 2021 industry note from Yole states that "Sumitomo Electric + AXT together had “more than 75%” of the InP substrate market") Hyperscalers/AI are moving toward photonics but the entire AI industry is fragile. If either $AXTI or $SMTOY stop supplying materials, the entire future AI buidlout gets crippled. It's even crazier that a $700m company could become the the center of it all. InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HMB as the AI industry shifts to photonics.

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Nic Cruz Patane@niccruzpatane·10 Oca

This is by far the best cleaner for Tesla white and black seats. It leaves a non-greasy matte finish and keeps them feeling new. Highly recommend. If you use it religiously, your interior will stay looking new.

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ARC Central@TheARCcentral·2 Oca

#ArcRaiders attachment guide. So handy to have.

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RipeMango@ripemango22·15 Ara

@OddDiligence How do you feel about this? I’d like to hear your thoughts

Pierre-Luc@dallairedemers

No, the latest paper with the GKP state has all components 30 dB away from achieving break-even, which is the milestone all other companies have achieved in the past two years. 30 dB is a factor 1000x in noise reduction. They can't even show coherence between two of those states, which is one of the most elementary requirement for actual qubits. Their competitors need a factor 5x improvement not to achieve break-even (since they already did), but to start building CRQCs. Xanadu is several steps behind. They pivoted to FTQC in 2022 only when it was obvious to everyone else that NISQ was over. A real FTQC program is tens of billions of $. Private investors have sunk hundreds of millions into this and they need an exit who won't know better. Xanadu just isn't realistically in the race. Zero qubit in ten years is a massive red flag. The excuse "it doesn't apply to their tech" is BS, they just don't ship qubits and they never will. Also Aurora was a gaussian boson sampler, strictly speaking it was still zero qubit back then too.

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Odd Diligence@OddDiligence·15 Ara

$CHAC "After watching Canada squander its early advantage in artificial intelligence, the federal government on Monday will unveil a program aimed at supporting key homegrown players in the emerging quantum computing space to ensure they stay here and become industry leaders" Go ahead and continue to play the crowded CCCX trade tho theglobeandmail.com/business/artic…

Odd Diligence@OddDiligence

$CHAC announced a DA with Xanadu Quantum on November 3rd– Xanadu is expected to be the first publicly listed, photonic quantum computing company. They will launch a listing on Nasdaq and TSX simultaneously early next year - CHAC is currently a SPAC. I am very surprised about how little mention there has been on X about Xanadu’s merger deal Will caveat this with I am not a quantum expert; I’m not your quantum expert – I’m a generalist, so I won’t get into the weeds of quantum. Thesis is it’s a lower risk place to park cash with high upside (good r/r opportunity) – Xanadu has a gaggle of high-quality partnerships & backers and I ***think*** CHAC has a solid probability of going up, assuming of course that the stock market’s technology sector hold up and IWM doesn't die · CHAC is trading a few dollars above $10.19 NAV. Given difference b/w current price and NAV, low downside potential. Stock is mid-12s right now · Float – 22M shares in the SPAC, already showing signs of tightening – SI going up (over 1M shares borrowed currently), borrow cost rising slightly (still 5%). 22M shares is lower end for what I would consider the higher profile SPACs · $CHAC raised the largest SPAC PIPE ($275M) in years (excluding crypto treasuries) with AMD among PIPE investors. They are not coming in at a discount, but are coming in at the SPAC IPO price · Xanadu partners include NVIDIA, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, US Military, Canada Military, Australia govt, South Korea govt, Finland govt, IBM, Corning, Mitsubishi, BMW, Rolls Royce, Volkswagen, Fidelity, Quantinuum, Applied Materials, 143 Universities, many others · Existing investors include US Government (In-Q-Tel), Canada Government, Porsche, Capricorn, Tiger Global, Georgian, BDC Capital, OMERS, Tim Draper, many others · They have the #1 Quantum Programming Software with 47% Usage Among Quantum Programmers (their words not mine) · Valuation is at a fraction of other publicly traded quantums (IONQ, RGTI, QBTS – yes they are overvalued, yes I am aware, yes market is irrational and will stay irrational) · Recently they got through Stage A of DARPA Benchmarking Initiative and are set to receive up to $15M additional funding from US govt, potentially to be matched by Canadian govt. If they get through Stage B, could get $300M from US Govt also potentially matched from Canada Govt. Wouldn't guarantee anything but will make good headlines... gl to all

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Michael | Hypermarkets@itsmichaelluu·8 Kas

5 plays that can go 500%-1000% in 2026: 1. SOFI Calls Jan 2027 $40 for $5 can go to $50+ 2. QS Calls Jan 2027 $25 for $5 can go to $50+ 3. EOSE Calls Jan 2027 $25 for $6 can go to $60+ 4. CIFR Calls Jan 2027 $35 for $7 can go to $70+ 5. LAES Calls Jan 2027 $5 for $2 can go to $20+ Here's 5 more plays I like here 🧵

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Mike@Mike10947310·5 Kas

$BE has gone from $18 -> $129 essentially on the realization that fuel cells can use nat gas to powers data centers. It’s now at $30B market cap. $BW even after this move is at $450m ish. But it’s clear that nat gas can be used to power boilers and steam turbines to power data centers. They just signed a deal with $APLD that: 1) Probably is the first of more 2) Alone represents a truly transformative revenue opportunity I am shocked it is not up more. I think people are price anchoring since $BW has run so hard already + shaky small caps lately. But the thing is, it might be a better r/r here than it was emerging shakily from bankruptcy at lows. I am really excited by this name here, clearly there’s something to their tech. I don’t think $BE at 30B and $BW sub 1B makes any sense, personally.

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Kashyap Sriram@kashyap286·3 Kas

Bitcoin miner turned AI bubble stock $IREN is up 22% pre-market on announcing a $9.7 billion GPU contract with $MSFT. As always, the devil is in the details. Before it can provide any service, IREN first needs to spend $5.8 billion buying the GPUs and ancillaries. MSFT will provide $1.94 billion upfront, but IREN needs to come up with a further $3.86 billion to fund this capex. Assuming this is debt financed at 10%, the 5-year contract achieves breakeven in year 4. Here's the math: Annual revenue: $1.94 billion Initial capex: $5.8 billion Total interest on loan: $0.77 billion Gross profit: $3.13 billion Annualized gross profit: $626 million IREN currently spends $136 mn on SG&A to capture $500 mn in revenue. That amounts to 27 cents out of every dollar in revenue, down from 38 cents the previous year. Assuming the same run rate and zero depreciation on the new data center facility, the company will spend $528 mn on SG&A to capture the incremental $1.94 bn in annual MSFT revenue. Annualized operating profit = $98 million Let's be charitable and assume the company manages to cut down SG&A to 20% of revenue. Optimistic annualized operating profit = $238 million While "$9.7 billion contract" makes for a great headline, the numbers throw cold water on this fairy tale. Making $238 million on a $5.8 billion investment amounts to a mere 4.1% pre-tax return. The hard truth is data centers are a low-margin business. Microsoft is smart, which is why they have signed this deal rather than build this capability in-house. IREN investors have nothing to cheer for. This deal is inferior to simply buying 10-year US treasuries and calling it a day.

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RipeMango@ripemango22·24 Eki

@FloridaManFin Analysis always on point

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Florida Man Finance@FloridaManFin·24 Eki

$LAZR short data is pretty primed ... Float: 60m shares Short Interest: 12.9m shares Short Float: 22% Cost to Borrow: 8% -> 18% -> 46% in last 3 days Short Shares Available (IBKR): 0 Price: +11% so far this morning Everyone's favorite post-COVID undeserving/youngest tech billionaire is trying to buy the company back. Read someone claiming the board wants $2.50/share minimum but need to verify. Company is seemingly still as dog shit as it's always been but seems like a very juiced squeeze setup with a takeover narrative + a backup booster in the current autonomous/robotics/drone LIDAR sentiment techcrunch.com/2025/10/17/ous…

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Luc@investingluc·24 Eki

Underline this in your notes...actually, just $CRCL it. I just found something *very* interesting about $CRCL. There's $7.5M+ of premium on the 11/21 $385 calls... With only 22 trading days until November 21st. These are $385 calls...meaning to go "in the money", the stock has to increase 200%. 200% in 22 trading days. Possible? Maybe. Here's what is odd. The "Payments Innovation Conference" was held on October 21st (two days ago)... One of the speakers was our buddy, $CRCL president Heath Tarbert. Heath was slated to speak at 10:50am-11:50am. ...and 20 minutes before Tarbert goes on stage, a $3.7M call buyer steps in at 10:30am. Confirmed across multiple options data platforms. Good timing? Inside scoop? Friendly banter? It's important to note that Heath Tarbert is former Chairman of the CFTC and Asst. Secretary of U.S Treasury. ...from a top-tier federal financial regulator to a leading a crypto firm? Very notable. Any catalysts, Luc? Earnings...November 12th. That's not all. LOOK AT THIS. Circle's 180-day post-IPO lockup period (from June 2025 listing) ends on December 2... ...BUT could accelerate to two trading days after Q3 earnings (November 14)! Something is going on with $CRCL. The bizarre options activity, the "Payments Innovation Conference", earnings, lock up period ending? I want in, $CRCL now $129.

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Taylor@TLAMB91·22 Eki

guys if i knew why some mentally ill individual was throwing at this money on 385c i would have my entire net worth in this trade if they were really committed they would buy the furthest strike there is at 390c but really, the delta is .05 - there is a 5% chance this ends in the money (this seems high tbh) earnings are November 12th, if a rapid move doesn't happen prior these are cooked even if it gaps 50pts on earnings from this level - with one week left, these are cooked if you think they are from the future and know these work, buy shares or a closer to the money option so you have a slightly better chance of not losing your shirt this is multiple days now of outlandish shit for $CRCL BYND just ran 1000% so maybe a 30B market cap like CRCL can go 200% on the conservative side

Taylor@TLAMB91

lot of $CRCL mentions and it did have very wild flow think an ABCD move completed at that high on 10/10 at 157.23 line we possibly just finished an A B C correction/retracement and could be looking to fire higher from here held the .707 at 123.09 wouldn't really want to see it below 119.03 at the .786 higher high from this range target IPO VWAP and 174.38 projection note earnings date and which expiration will catch it. a fast move to 170+ would make those 200 + strike calls rip keep in mind there were people buying ridiculous 300+ call strikes at recent highs and flow hasn't been spot on for this one imo

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Nathan Michaud@InvestorsLive·16 Eki

$ABAT Form: 8-K > American Battery Technology Company filed an 8-K on October 15, 2025, reporting the termination of a DOE grant, amendments to bylaws, and amendments to the board of directors code of conduct. sec.gov/Archives/edgar…

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PPE@planert41·14 Eki

Holy shit what a day Sold 2/3 of $NVTS for 50K gain. Could have been an extra 40K but oh well $LAES killed it too. Still holding most of it. It's gonna get to 8.5 at least. Might get to 10 imo $CAN still has room to run to 2.5 Added to $SG. Should squeeze soon New squeeze positions $PLUG $RDW Finally bought some $POET $NXE $CRNC calls came back from the dead. Was planning to add some $CRNC Nov 15 calls after call flow yesterday. Fking missed it. Doubled Bought some $DNN calls $GGAL calls died. $BBVA puts also died. So much for that spread trade. Both blew up Starter $MGNI position. Added to $CODI full position now. Still holding binary bets like $WBD $FHN $RPD $FSLY $FRSH Gonna either 10x or go to 0 But yeah solid day. Think we still made 100K today total. Took some money out. Missed a lot of shit. $WMT $LUNR $NVTS $UUUU $ACI $KOPN $HOND $LAC $LPTH $AREC $TDOC $PCT $SHLS Can't catch them all

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Venu@Venu_7_·13 Eki

$ABAT - American Battery Technology Company The Next 10x Opportunity in America’s Battery Revolution Stock Price: $6.75 Market Cap: $800M CEO: Ryan Melsert (Ex-Tesla R&D Manager, Gigafactory Battery Materials Processing Group) What does $ABAT do? ABAT develops technology to extract lithium domestically and recycle old batteries into new materials, aiming to make America self-sufficient in battery metals. Battery Recycling: Recovers lithium, nickel, and cobalt from used batteries. Lithium Extraction: Innovating eco-friendly methods to extract lithium from Nevada clay deposits. Vision: A closed-loop, U.S.-based battery materials supply chain powering the next energy revolution. 1/ Technicals: - Breaking out of a 1-year Stage 1 base with 3x volume and heavy accumulation in recent months. - Trading above IPO AVWAP and both 200-day and 200-week moving averages. - Technical picture aligns with early-stage base formation seen before major expansions. 2/ Institutions: Noticed unusual accumulation -the kind of sustained volume that signals big players are quietly buying. Institutional ownership has risen steadily since late 2023, up over 400% through 2024–2025. Multiple funds have initiated or increased positions. Both price and ownership trends are rising together, a hallmark of quiet institutional accumulation. 3/ Fundamentals: Still early in revenue growth, but signs of traction are emerging. 2025 revenue estimates: Q1: $0.2M Q2: $0.3M Q3: $0.9M Q4: $2.8M 2026 projections: $20–$40M+ per quarter, showing strong acceleration potential. Balance sheet: Assets up from $48M (2023) to $88M (2024). Liabilities stable between $10–$20M with minimal debt. Fundamentals aren’t compelling yet since it’s still in the early growth phase, but balance sheet strength and visible scaling make it a promising long-term play. 4/ Catalysts: - DOE $144M grant for a second large-scale battery recycling plant (construction began Jan 2025). - Recycling ramp: Nevada facility tripled quarterly revenue as throughput rose 70%. - Federal backing: Fast-41 status and a U.S. EXIM Bank letter of interest for a $900M low-interest loan. - DOE and automaker validation: Proven recycled metals match new metal performance (partners include GM, Ford, and Stellantis). - Russell 2000 and 3000 inclusion (June 2025), driving liquidity and institutional inflows. - AI and data center link: Recycled materials positioned as critical inputs for U.S. data centers and AI infrastructure. 5/ My Take: ABAT is still early in its growth curve, but the catalysts are stacking up fast. Government grants, DOE validation, and early revenue ramp show execution is underway. This is a U.S. battery supply chain story - recycling, extraction, and refining all under one roof. Execution and scalability remain the key watchpoints, but the direction is clear: rising institutional ownership, strong federal support, and early proof of concept working. Not a short-term trade, but potentially a multi-year compounder as domestic lithium demand surges. If you found this helpful, a like and share would make the X algo (and me) happy. Cheers!

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Keşfet

@JasonL_Capital @OddDiligence @FloridaManFin @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates