@JayVermani The setup rhymes with every prior cycle Raoul mapped out on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. Banana zone doesn’t announce itself, it just arrives when liquidity and the business cycle align.
Banks. Regulators. AI. Liquidity. All converging at once.
@RaoulGMI: "It's all so f*cking obvious. It's the biggest opportunity we've ever been given"
The only way to miss it is to overtrade it.
What we learned at Sui Live @SuiNetwork
@Freki_OG Bridgeless cross-network liquidity is the infrastructure unlock most are still underpricing. Raoul’s been watching that interoperability layer on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. When it works the fragmentation premium disappears fast.
@CallumSheehan80 Four converging forces most people are still analyzing in isolation, that’s where the mispricing lives. Raoul’s been mapping that collision on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. When separate trends merge into one thesis the repricing tends to be violent.
@RealVision@RaoulGMI@SuiNetwork The next wave isn’t just crypto.
It’s AI + liquidity + regulation + tokenization all colliding at the same time.
Most people still think these are separate trends.
@xpsyk0w Assisted vs autonomous productivity are two very different numbers the current GDP framework can’t cleanly separate. Raoul’s been questioning that methodology on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. The calculation problem doesn’t disappear, it compounds.
@MilkRoad@SuiNetwork SounfThere doesn't seem to be any change in the calculation; it might even be wrong because there will always be human production, assisted by robots.
Raoul Pal: "By 2030, the entire economic system has changed."
AI will rewrite the GDP formula...
The old formula:
GDP = population growth (humans) + productivity growth (human output) + debt growth
The new formula:
GDP = population growth (humans + robots + agents) + productivity growth (energy density + compute efficiency) + debt growth.
FT @RaoulGMI@RealVision
@vic_crane Precise projections on unmeasurable inputs is where the model flatters itself. Raoul’s been skeptical of those GDP estimates on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. 45% CAGR tends to front-load optimism and back-load reality.
@MilkRoad The old GDP formula is a relic. AI agents add 2.84 trillion to US GDP by 2030 as 15 percent of work decisions go autonomous by 2028. Capital flows into agentic infrastructure to capture this 45 percent CAGR.
@Gamma_Snipers Energy costs eating compute margins is the physical constraint the model assumes away. Raoul’s been stress testing those input costs on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. Robots boosting output without paying rent doesn’t close the fiscal gap, it just moves it.
@Steffan0xd More reason i stay Glued to Raoul’s telegram channel “TheRaoulVision” , where he shares valuable insights, expert analysis, quick response to questions and community support all in one place. One never stop leaning!!
Manufacturing companies in my region have spent millions on fully autonomous forklifts.
None of them work in production.
Not humanoid robots. Not future-state fantasy. Autonomous mobile robots. Self-driving forklifts in warehouses. The unglamorous stuff that should be solved by now.
Technology gaps remain even in the simpler categories.
Meanwhile everyone's talking about humanoids.
@marketsinparis Paying for validation instead of building real conviction is the trap. Raoul’s been clear on doing the work yourself on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. No markup replaces understanding the framework firsthand.
@Liquidity_Riot Paying for validation instead of building real conviction is the trap. Raoul’s been clear on doing the work yourself on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. No markup replaces understanding the framework firsthand.
@effnkat Fair catch, the FX framing was backwards and precision matters when foreign buyer incentives are the whole argument. Raoul’s been tightening that on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”.
@RaoulGMI good post sir but why do you keep saying this: “Foreign buyers will only step in if three things are true. The dollar has to be weakening rather than strengthening, because they take the FX loss otherwise.” it is wrong / unclear. fx loss is when foreign ccy is weakening
@Rudin_web3 When the pieces that shouldn’t fit together actually do, that’s when a framework earns its keep. Raoul’s been building that connective tissue on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. The macro puzzle rarely comes with a clean picture on the box.
@ceterae8 Bits moving fast while atoms lag is exactly what tests bond market patience. Raoul’s been tracking that split on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. Two to three quarters is a tight window for the stats to confirm before the architecture cracks.
Productivity in bits yes, but productivity in world of atoms may be slower and will require a longer timeframe… tests bond market and doesn’t give room for that architecture you talk about to play out
Aggregate productivity has to show the boost in statistics in the next two-three quarters…
@_milex27 Core CPI excluding food and energy has always felt like a trick to anyone buying groceries. Raoul’s been tracking that credibility gap on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. Warsh wins or loses on what people actually feel, not what the model prints.
@RaoulGMI You are smart af. I’m just wondering if Warsh can successful reframe perception around Inflation because Food and Energy prices is what matters to the consumer. Excluding that looks like a trick.
@nikolabroceta Right thesis wrong sizing is how most get carried out before it plays out. Raoul’s been hammering the survival point on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. The bond constraint isn’t the footnote, it’s what decides if you’re still in the game.
@RaoulGMI A framework can be dead right and still take you out. The bond market constraint flagged at the end isn't a footnote — it's the trade. Desks don't position for the architecture, they position for surviving the path to it. Right on the thesis, wrong-sized for the drawdown.
@zhuren1992 That’s right, i call this financial sovereignty…So much has been Learnt as well as a good looking portfolio since being a part of your telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. One never stop unlocking achievements
My bloody Quillian won't sit still... He has been in @Blondie23LMD sanctuary and then @tadtweets (Caroline's) sanctuary... meanwhile, I've lost my damned parrot. Its off doing parrot things... generally not giving two f's...
Epic art project by @nicedayJules and so so clever...
@bysahilhooda Markets as just another substrate for universal rules, that reframe changes how you read everything. Raoul’s been building that view on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. What spreads beats what’s right, that’s the uncomfortable core of it.
This is one of those ideas that sounds abstract until you realise he’s really describing the same pressure showing up everywhere.
Markets, technology, culture, biology — all of it keeps rewarding the thing that compresses more, moves faster, wastes less, and replicates better. The uncomfortable part is that truth is not always what wins. What spreads wins. What compounds wins. What adapts wins.
That’s why this kind of framework feels bigger than investing. It’s basically saying markets are not separate from life. They’re just another place where the same rules play out with money as the medium.
I started by trying to understand markets. Thirty years later I've ended up somewhere closer to life, the universe and everything. The same four rules keep showing up...
Along the way I've written three frameworks that have shaped how a lot of people see the world.
The Everything Code is what I found when I went looking for what actually drives markets. A debt rollover cycle, managed by liquidity, debasing the currency at roughly 8% a year. That debasement is monetary entropy. Capital routes around it, into whatever can compound faster than the entropy degrades it. Technology and crypto sit at the top of that flow because they are the intelligence layer of the economy. Markets are monetary energy routing toward the highest output of intelligence. The only assets that outperform debasement over extended periods are tech and crypto.
The Exponential Age is the realisation that technology has become the substrate. Compute, networks, energy and intelligence are compounding faster than any institution we built was designed to handle, and the gap between the two is the defining tension of our time.
The Economic Singularity is where this is heading. Somewhere in the next decade the curve of intelligence per unit of energy turns fully exponential, and the rules every economy we know was built on stop applying.
For a long time I thought of these as three separate ideas. Looking at them now, they are three views of the same thing at different altitudes. And underneath all three, the same four rules keep showing up.
Efficiency of Intelligence - The universe rewards whatever does more with less. Every system that survives is better at turning energy into information than the system it replaced. There has never been an exception.
Compression - Intelligence is the act of representing a vast reality in a much smaller form without losing what matters. Brains do it. Theories do it. Prices do it. AI does it. They are not analogous. They are the same operation.
Coherence - Complex systems hold together because their parts synchronise faster than the noise around them. Markets, brains, civilisations, ecosystems. When the synchronisation fails, what looks like collapse is desynchronisation made visible.
Selection - Patterns that copy themselves faster than their rivals dominate the medium they live in. Genes did this in biology. Ideas do it in culture. Memecoins do it in markets. Truth is not part of the selection criteria. Replication is. It always has been.
What the four rules produce, when they operate together, is networks.
The same topology shows up everywhere. The cosmic web. The human brain. Mycelium beneath a forest. The internet. Financial markets. Blockchains. Across fourteen orders of magnitude, the universe keeps building the same shape. That shape is what the four laws look like when you can see them.
The Everything Code is what these four rules look like in markets.
The Exponential Age is what they look like running through technology.
The Economic Singularity is where they are taking us.
Three angles, one picture.
Underneath all of it, energy is the constant. Consciousness is the substrate. The four rules are the dynamics through which one becomes the other.
All of this is one corner of what I call The Universal Code. The same four rules apply to everything else and I mean EVERYTHING... they are universal in the true sense of the word.
@Galactic_George DNA too slow for what’s coming is the real existential gap. Raoul’s been sitting with that human adaptation problem on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. Whether it modifies or destroys us depends on who controls the modification layer.
@RaoulGMI Where does the Universal code take into account DNA, the genetic code? This evolves at nowhere near the rate of digital technology. Can simple, tribal, albeit somewhat intelligent creatures with deeply coded basic instincts weild such technology? Does it destroy us or modify us?
@9thPlatoon3392 Control attempts always lag the evolution, the most efficient systems route around interference by design. Raoul’s been tracking that dynamic on his Telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. The universal rules don’t ask permission.
@RaoulGMI Well said! Technological evolution on a global scale. Entities and institutions will try and control it, but it has a lif of its own. The universal rules will ensure that the most efficient survive👍
@AgeOf_AI That’s right, i call this financial sovereignty…So much has been Learnt as well as a good looking portfolio since being a part of your telegram channel “TheRaoulVision”. One never stop unlocking achievements
@RaoulGMI My god the bloat I'm your rant there Raoul! You know as well as I do there is no secret to trading but one, all the rest is noise and distraction even down to the charts themselves. 99% can't see the simple patterns burried in all the noise. 😉
@jreverb Absolutely, patience is a superpower in crypto, more reason i stay Glued to Raoul’s telegram channel “TheRaoulVision” ,where he shares valuable insights, expert analysis, quick response to questions and community support all in one place. One never stop leaning!!